Estudiantes L.P. vs U. Catolica Prediction

Estadio Ciudad de La Plata, La Plata·Raphael Claus, Brazil 12/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.8 / 10
Value Analysis
71%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.48
SignalGOODModel57%SurpriseMediumGap+6.8%
Estudiantes L.P. Rest
3 days
U. Catolica Rest
4 days

Estudiantes L.P. vs U. Catolica: result, form and history

Estudiantes L.P. and U. Catolica drew 1-1 in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on 12 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee Raphael Claus averages 4.32 cards a game, 0.73 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
53%1.67
X
28%3.50
2
19%5.75
Double Chance
1X
81%1.14
X2
47%2.16
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%2.30
No
56%1.55
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.52 + 0.88 = 2.40
Over 1.5
70%1.48
Over 2.5
37%2.50
Over 3.5
18%4.75
Under 1.5
30%2.60
Under 2.5
63%1.53
Under 3.5
82%1.17
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.2 + 3.4 = 8.6
Over 8.5
57%1.70
Over 9.5
44%2.15
Over 10.5
33%2.87
Under 8.5
43%2.04
Under 9.5
56%1.63
Under 10.5
67%1.35
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.4 + 2.6 = 5
Over 3.5
74%1.32
Over 4.5
56%1.67
Under 3.5
26%2.92
Under 4.5
44%2.05

Match Events

4'J. Burgos
9'F. Zampedri
61'Perez Fabricio INJ. Correa out
64'E. Mena IND. Corral out
67'T. Palacios INB. Rodriguez out
67'A. Castro INGabriel Neves out
74'B. RodriguezTripping
78'C. Cuevas
80'F. ZampedriAssist: J. Giani
85'J. Burgos INB. Aguirre out
85'B. Cerezo INA. Farias out
85'J. Valencia ING. Medel out
90'T. PalaciosUnsportsmanlike conduct

Lineups

Estudiantes L.P.
4-2-3-1Coach: Alexander Medina
U. Catolica
4-2-3-1Coach: Daniel Garnero
Avg rating6.81
Avg rating6.72
Fernando Muslera6.516F. Muslera
Eric Meza6.520E. Meza
Santiago Núñez6.74S. Núñez
Tomás Palacios6.724T. Palacios
Gastón Benedetti6.713G. Benedetti
Ezequiel Piovi6.921E. Piovi
Alexis Castro7.322A. Castro
Fabricio Pérez6.729F. Pérez
Tiago Palacios7.310T. Palacios
Joaquín Tobio Burgos7.717J. Tobio Burgos
Guido CarrilloC7.39G. Carrillo
Vicente Bernedo7.21V. Bernedo
Bernardo Cerezo6.328B. Cerezo
Daniel González6.52D. González
Branco Ampuero6.719B. Ampuero
Eugenio Mena6.93E. Mena
Fernando Zuqui6.98F. Zuqui
Jhojan Valencia6.920J. Valencia
Justo Giani7.07J. Giani
Jimmy Martínez6.214J. Martínez
Cristián Cuevas6.715C. Cuevas
Fernando ZampedriC6.99F. Zampedri

Estudiantes L.P. Substitutes

32Joaquín Correa61'for Perez Fabricio6.5
8Gabriel Neves67'for A. Castro6.3
31Baltasar Rodriguez67'for T. Palacios74'6.3
28Brian Aguirre85'for J. Burgos6.7
1Fabricio Iacovich
26Ramiro Funes Mori
40Eros Mancuso
35Valente Pierani
11Facundo Farías
7José Sosa
18Edwuin Cetré
19Adolfo Gaich

U. Catolica Substitutes

25Diego Corral64'for E. Mena6.7
17Gary Medel85'for J. Valencia6.6
5Agustín Farías85'for B. Cerezo6.6
12Francisco Valdés
27Darío Melo
39Nicolás L'Huiller
34Francisco Daza
42Nickolas Pino
22Martín Gómez
13Alfred Canales
10Matías Palavecino
43Amaro Pérez

Match Stats

Estudiantes L.P.U. Catolica
51%Ball Possession49%
12Corner Kicks1
2Yellow Cards2
16Total Shots4
5Shots on Goal1
7Shots off Goal3
11Shots Inside Box1
5Shots Outside Box3
4Blocked Shots0
15Fouls12
3Offsides1
0Goalkeeper Saves4
324Total Passes323
251Passes Accurate233
77%Pass Accuracy72%

Team Comparison

Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.
U. CatolicaU. Catolica
1663Elo Rating 1661
0.75Attack 1.09
1.52Defense 1.60
0%Hit Rate 14%
13.1Shots per Game 13.9
4.0Shots on Target 4.1
4.9Corners per Game 4.7
2.9Cards per Game 3.2

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.7 vs 0 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
U. CatolicaU. Catolica
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.8 vs 0.3 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Recent Form

Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.
4W1D5L
08/08/2026
Deportivo RiestraEstudiantes L.P.
20
L
06/08/2026
Boca JuniorsEstudiantes L.P.
10
L
01/08/2026
Estudiantes L.P.Defensa Y Justicia
30
W
26/07/2026
Estudiantes L.P.Independiente
02
L
31/05/2026
Estudiantes L.P.Rosario Central
30
W
27/05/2026
Estudiantes L.P.Independiente Medellin
10
W
21/05/2026
FlamengoEstudiantes L.P.
10
L
10/05/2026
Estudiantes L.P.Racing Club
01
L
07/05/2026
CuscoEstudiantes L.P.
11
D
03/05/2026
PlatenseEstudiantes L.P.
02
W
U. CatolicaU. Catolica
7W1D2L

Referee Profile

Raphael Claus296 matches

4.32Cards per match
4.07Yellow cards per match
0.25Red cards per match
24.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Raphael Claus4.32
Other referees5.05

4.32 cards a match, 0.73 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.05).

Cards come from 288 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals

League Table

CONMEBOL Libertadores 2026

Group A

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FlamengoFlamengo651014:2+1216WWWDW
2Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.62316:5+19WLDDW
3Independiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin62136:11-57LWLWL
4CuscoCusco60154:12-81LLDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FlamengoFlamengo614:216
2Estudiantes L.P.Estudiantes L.P.66:59
3Independiente MedellinIndependiente Medellin66:117
4CuscoCusco64:121

Group D

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1U. CatolicaU. Catolica64118:4+413WWDWW
2CruzeiroCruzeiro63218:3+511WDDWL
3Boca JuniorsBoca Juniors62136:5+17LDLLW
4Barcelona SCBarcelona SC61052:12-103LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1U. CatolicaU. Catolica68:413
2CruzeiroCruzeiro68:311
3Boca JuniorsBoca Juniors66:57
4Barcelona SCBarcelona SC62:123

About the Estudiantes L.P. vs U. Catolica forecast

As a knockout tie in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About CONMEBOL Libertadores

More CONMEBOL Libertadores fixtures and forecasts are on the CONMEBOL Libertadores Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Estudiantes L.P. and U. Catolica have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.