U. Catolica vs D. La Serena Prediction

U. Catolica
3-3
Finished
HT 2-0
D. La Serena
Claro Arena, Santiago·Jose Cabero Rebolledo, Chile 26/07/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.4 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.40
SignalSTRONGModel71%SurpriseMediumGap+8.7%
Value Analysis
82%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.40
SignalSTRONGModel59%SurpriseMediumGap+14.9%
U. Catolica Rest
14 days
D. La Serena Rest
13 days

U. Catolica vs D. La Serena: result, form and history

U. Catolica and D. La Serena drew 3-3 in the Primera División on 26 Jul 2026. U. Catolica had gone in with the better form, having won 4 of their previous five against 2 for D. La Serena.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 7 previous meetings averaged 3.4 goals, and both sides scored in 3 of them. Referee Jose Cabero Rebolledo averages 4.06 cards a game, 1.39 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
80%1.40
X
6%4.65
2
14%7.00
Double Chance
1X
86%1.08
X2
20%2.80
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%1.75
No
42%1.95
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.35 + 0.84 = 3.19
Over 1.5
90%1.17
Over 2.5
60%1.57
Over 3.5
37%2.44
Under 1.5
10%4.60
Under 2.5
40%2.25
Under 3.5
63%1.52
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

7'I. RassoFoul
28'F. Zampedri(Penalty)
40'E. MenaAssist: J. Diaz
45+2'M. MarinUnsportsmanlike conduct
46'D. Rubio ING. Figueroa out
46'A. Oroz INS. Diaz out
53'J. Gutierrez INM. Pinto out
65'F. Zuqui INM. Palavecino out
65'D. Corral INJ. A. Martinez out
72'G. FigueroaAssist: J. Vargas
77'Y. Salazar INF. Dinamarca out
81'M. MarinAssist: G. Figueroa
82'J. Giani INA. Farias out
82'C. Cuevas INJ. Rossel out
86'G. FigueroaAssist: L. Alarcon
90+3'M. Marin INM. Velasquez out
90+9'F. Zampedri

Lineups

U. Catolica
4-2-3-1Coach: Daniel Garnero
D. La Serena
4-3-3Coach: Francisco Bozan
Avg rating6.82
Avg rating6.67
Darío Melo7.327D. Melo
Sebastián Arancibia7.36S. Arancibia
Daniel González5.92D. González
Juan Ignacio Díaz6.726J. Ignacio Díaz
Eugenio Mena6.33E. Mena
Fernando Zuqui7.08F. Zuqui
Jhojan Valencia6.920J. Valencia
Diego Corral6.925D. Corral
Cristián Cuevas7.615C. Cuevas
Justo Giani6.57J. Giani
Fernando ZampedriC8.39F. Zampedri
José Tapia5.931J. Tapia
Joaquín Gutiérrez6.316J. Gutiérrez
Lucas Alarcón6.65L. Alarcón
Ian Rasso5.934I. Rasso
Yahir Salazar6.017Y. Salazar
Gonzalo Escalante7.08G. Escalante
Francis Mac Allister7.34F. Mac Allister
Jeisson VargasC6.510J. Vargas
Alexander Oroz6.57A. Oroz
Matías Marín7.723M. Marín
Diego Rubio6.611D. Rubio

U. Catolica Substitutes

14Jimmy Martínez65'for D. Corral6.3
10Matías Palavecino65'for F. Zuqui6.7
5Agustín Farías82'for J. Giani6.3
18Juan Francisco Rossel82'for C. Cuevas6.3
12Francisco Valdés
28Bernardo Cerezo
39Nicolás L'Huiller
13Alfred Canales
22Martín Gómez

D. La Serena Substitutes

6Sebastián Díaz6.7
2Gonzalo Gabriel Figueroa
29Matías Pinto53'for J. Gutierrez6.3
26Fernando Dinamarca77'for Y. Salazar6.0
20Milovan Velásquez90+3'for M. Marin6.3
38Ignacio Sáez
28Joan Orellana
9Ángelo Henríquez
19Bastián Sandoval

Match Stats

U. CatolicaD. La Serena
49%Ball Possession51%
6Corner Kicks5
0Yellow Cards2
15Total Shots18
4Shots on Goal9
7Shots off Goal7
10Shots Inside Box9
5Shots Outside Box9
4Blocked Shots2
8Fouls6
7Offsides3
6Goalkeeper Saves1
401Total Passes425
317Passes Accurate335
79%Pass Accuracy79%

Team Comparison

U. CatolicaU. Catolica
D. La SerenaD. La Serena
1699Elo Rating 1537
1.40Attack 1.74
2.10Defense 1.29
50%Hit Rate 58%
12.6Shots per Game 12.2
4.1Shots on Target 5.4
5.2Corners per Game 4.9
2.8Cards per Game 3.4

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+162 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.2 goals
📈BTTS Trend43% in H2H
💎Value Analysis Identified

Game State Tendencies

U. CatolicaU. Catolica
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
D. La SerenaD. La Serena
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.1 vs 0.7 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 7 meetings, all competitions

U. CatolicaU. Catolica4Wins · 57%
Draws114%
D. La SerenaD. La Serena2Wins · 29%
3.4Avg Goals
43%Both teams scored3 of 7
57%3+ goals4 of 7

Previous meetings

Primera División01/02/2026
D. La SerenaU. Catolica
22
Primera División08/11/2025
D. La SerenaU. Catolica
01
Primera División25/05/2025
U. CatolicaD. La Serena
13
Primera División10/09/2022
D. La SerenaU. Catolica
04
Primera División10/04/2022
U. CatolicaD. La Serena
02
Primera División13/11/2021
D. La SerenaU. Catolica
02
Primera División08/08/2021
U. CatolicaD. La Serena
43

Recent Form

U. CatolicaU. Catolica
9W0D1L
11/07/2026
San LuisU. Catolica
40
L
05/07/2026
U. CatolicaDeportes Copiapo
21
W
01/07/2026
U. CatolicaEverton de Vina
21
W
28/06/2026
U. CatolicaSan Luis
42
W
24/06/2026
Everton de VinaU. Catolica
13
W
20/06/2026
Deportes CopiapoU. Catolica
03
W
14/06/2026
U. CatolicaUniversidad de Concepcion
51
W
07/06/2026
U. CatolicaCobresal
51
W
31/05/2026
HuachipatoU. Catolica
03
W
29/05/2026
Boca JuniorsU. Catolica
01
W
D. La SerenaD. La Serena
3W2D5L
12/07/2026
CobreloaD. La Serena
10
L
05/07/2026
D. La SerenaAntofagasta
24
L
02/07/2026
CobresalD. La Serena
01
W
28/06/2026
D. La SerenaCobreloa
21
W
24/06/2026
D. La SerenaCobresal
00
D
21/06/2026
AntofagastaD. La Serena
42
L
13/06/2026
A. ItalianoD. La Serena
11
D
07/06/2026
D. La SerenaUnion La Calera
02
L
30/05/2026
D. La SerenaColo Colo
24
L
24/05/2026
D. La SerenaDeportes Limache
41
W

Referee Profile

Jose Cabero Rebolledo20 matches

4.06Cards per match
3.59Yellow cards per match
0.47Red cards per match
20.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Jose Cabero Rebolledo4.06
Other referees5.45

4.06 cards a match, 1.39 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.45).

Cards come from 17 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Primera División 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Colo ColoColo Colo25174451:28+2355DLDDW
2Universidad de ChileUniversidad de Chile25146545:20+2548WWWWL
3U. CatolicaU. Catolica25134852:37+1543DLWWW
4Everton de VinaEverton de Vina25116841:31+1039LWWLW
5PalestinoPalestino25115939:36+338DDLWL
6Deportes LimacheDeportes Limache251141046:37+937WDLWW
7NublenseNublense2598830:38-835WLLLL
8D. La SerenaD. La Serena2589839:42-333WLLWW
9Coquimbo UnidoCoquimbo Unido24951037:35+232LWLLL
10ConcepciónConcepción25951127:30-332LDDLW
11HuachipatoHuachipato24951034:40-632DWWWD
12A. ItalianoA. Italiano2579928:33-530DDWWL
13O'HigginsO'Higgins25841329:39-1028DLLWL
14CobresalCobresal25751336:46-1026DDWLW
15Universidad de ConcepcionUniversidad de Concepcion25651418:41-2323LDLLL
16Union La CaleraUnion La Calera25561423:42-1921WDWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Colo ColoColo Colo2551:2855
2Universidad de ChileUniversidad de Chile2545:2048
3U. CatolicaU. Catolica2552:3743
4Everton de VinaEverton de Vina2541:3139
5PalestinoPalestino2539:3638
6Deportes LimacheDeportes Limache2546:3737
7NublenseNublense2530:3835
8D. La SerenaD. La Serena2539:4233
9Coquimbo UnidoCoquimbo Unido2437:3532
10ConcepciónConcepción2527:3032
11HuachipatoHuachipato2434:4032
12A. ItalianoA. Italiano2528:3330
13O'HigginsO'Higgins2529:3928
14CobresalCobresal2536:4626
15Universidad de ConcepcionUniversidad de Concepcion2518:4123
16Union La CaleraUnion La Calera2523:4221

About the U. Catolica vs D. La Serena forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

U. Catolica and D. La Serena in the Primera División table

In the Primera División table, U. Catolica are 3rd and D. La Serena 8th, 10 points apart. League goal record so far: U. Catolica 52-37, D. La Serena 39-42. The full standings are on the Primera División Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

U. Catolica have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.