Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima Prediction

Estadio Banco Guayaquil, Quito·D. Herrera 26/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.8 / 10
Value Analysis
62%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 2.5 Goals
1.71
SignalSOLIDModel47%SurpriseHighGap+6.9%
Independiente del Valle Rest
4 days
Deportes Tolima Rest
3 days

Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima: result, form and history

Independiente del Valle beat Deportes Tolima 3-1 in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on 26 Aug 2026. It was in line with recent form: Independiente del Valle had won 5 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Deportes Tolima.

Meetings between them tend to be tight, with just 2.0 goals a game across 3 matches. Referee D. Herrera averages 5.87 cards a game, 0.74 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
53%1.53
X
29%4.00
2
18%6.53
Double Chance
1X
82%1.11
X2
47%2.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%2.15
No
55%1.62
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.46 + 0.93 = 2.39
Over 1.5
71%1.36
Over 2.5
39%2.10
Over 3.5
20%3.78
Under 1.5
29%3.10
Under 2.5
61%1.71
Under 3.5
80%1.22
Corners
Projected Corners: 6 + 2.9 = 8.9
Over 8.5
57%1.54
Over 9.5
45%1.92
Over 10.5
34%2.46
Under 8.5
43%2.28
Under 9.5
55%1.80
Under 10.5
66%1.50
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 3 = 4.7
Over 3.5
69%1.21
Over 4.5
50%1.53
Under 3.5
31%3.40
Under 4.5
50%2.25

Match Events

58'A. Parra OsorioFoul
59'D. A. Romero Padilla
62'S. Aguayo INE. Lopez out
62'J. Mosquera INK. Florez out
65'H. E. Martinez YepezUnsportsmanlike conduct
67'H. Quintana INR. Briones out
70'C. GonzalezAssist: D. A. Romero Padilla
74'J. SornozaDelay of game
76'H. E. Martinez Yepez INJ. Angulo out
76'A. Parra Osorio INL. Sanchez out
76'E. Pata INJ. Angulo out
80'S. Guzman
82'C. Gonzalez IND. Reasco out
82'J. Sornoza INJ. Mendez out
82'A. Rodriguez INM. Perello out
84'J. Hernandez
90+5'M. PerelloAssist: R. Briones

Lineups

Independiente del Valle
4-1-4-1Coach: Joaquin Papa
Deportes Tolima
4-4-2Coach: Sebastian Oliveros
Avg rating7.04
Avg rating6.38
Aldair Quintana6.21A. Quintana
Daykol Romero7.713D. Romero
Mateo Carabajal7.214M. Carabajal
Richard Schunke7.25R. Schunke
Layan Loor6.719L. Loor
Jordy Alcivar6.36J. Alcivar
Arón Rodríguez7.517A. Rodríguez
Hugo Quintana6.928H. Quintana
Junior SornozaC7.310J. Sornoza
Emerson Pata7.631E. Pata
Carlos González7.99C. González
Neto Volpi7.01N. Volpi
Cristian Arrieta5.617C. Arrieta
Yordan Osorio6.371Y. Osorio
Anderson AnguloC6.22A. Angulo
Junior Hernández7.320J. Hernández
Jherson Mosquera6.333J. Mosquera
Sebastián Guzmán6.332S. Guzmán
Homer Martinez6.714H. Martinez
Adrián Parra6.224A. Parra
Jorge Hurtado5.27J. Hurtado
Sergio Armando Aguayo Castillo6.215S. Armando Aguayo Castillo

Independiente del Valle Substitutes

16Ronald Briones67'for H. Quintana6.9
50Juan Riquelme Angulo76'for E. Pata6.3
11Matías Perello82'for A. Rodriguez90+5'8.0
32Jhegson Méndez82'for J. Sornoza6.6
99Djorkaeff Reasco82'for C. Gonzalez6.3
70Miguel Peralta
4Jhon Espinoza
23Juan Viacava
15Gustavo Cortez
33Andy Velasco
8Youri Ochoa
52Yandri Vasquez

Deportes Tolima Substitutes

18Kelvin Florez62'for J. Mosquera6.9
28Edwar López62'for S. Aguayo6.7
3Jan Ángulo76'for H. E. Martinez Yepez6.5
10Luis Sánchez76'for A. Parra Osorio6.3
23Gali Balanta
70Miguel Ortega
30Shean Barbosa
4Daniel Pedrozo
16Victor Reyes
11Jader Valencia
8Ever Valencia

Match Stats

Independiente del ValleDeportes Tolima
46%Ball Possession54%
3Corner Kicks2
1Yellow Cards3
20Total Shots11
7Shots on Goal3
11Shots off Goal4
12Shots Inside Box5
8Shots Outside Box6
2Blocked Shots4
3Fouls11
0Offsides2
1Goalkeeper Saves4
386Total Passes462
335Passes Accurate382
87%Pass Accuracy83%

Team Comparison

Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle
Deportes TolimaDeportes Tolima
1793Elo Rating 1569
0.86Attack 1.01
2.44Defense 1.49
36%Hit Rate 0%
11.3Shots per Game 12.8
4.3Shots on Target 4.9
5.9Corners per Game 5.5
1.5Cards per Game 3.3

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+224 Elo
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming
⚠️Home Rotation Risk70%
⚠️Away Rotation Risk90%

Game State Tendencies

Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.3 in first half)
Deportes TolimaDeportes Tolima
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 3 meetings, all competitions

Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle1Wins · 34%
Draws133%
Deportes TolimaDeportes Tolima1Wins · 33%
2.0Avg Goals
33%Both teams scored1 of 3
33%3+ goals1 of 3

Previous meetings

CONMEBOL Libertadores19/08/2026
Deportes TolimaIndependiente del Valle
01
CONMEBOL Libertadores05/05/2022
Deportes TolimaIndependiente del Valle
10
CONMEBOL Libertadores14/04/2022
Independiente del ValleDeportes Tolima
22

Referee Profile

D. Herrera261 matches

5.87Cards per match
5.50Yellow cards per match
0.36Red cards per match
26.2Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

D. Herrera5.87
Other referees5.13

5.87 cards a match, 0.74 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.13).

Cards come from 244 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals

League Table

CONMEBOL Libertadores 2026

Group B

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Coquimbo UnidoCoquimbo Unido63128:6+210LWWLW
2Deportes TolimaDeportes Tolima62227:6+18DLWWL
3Club NacionalClub Nacional62227:9-28WDLLW
4UniversitarioUniversitario61325:6-16DDLWL

Group H

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle641111:6+513WWLWW
2Rosario CentralRosario Central64119:1+813LWWWW
3UCVUCV63037:11-49WLWLL
4Libertad AsuncionLibertad Asuncion60064:13-90LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Independiente del ValleIndependiente del Valle611:613
2Rosario CentralRosario Central69:113
3UCVUCV67:119
4Libertad AsuncionLibertad Asuncion64:130

About the Independiente del Valle vs Deportes Tolima forecast

As a knockout tie in the CONMEBOL Libertadores, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About CONMEBOL Libertadores

More CONMEBOL Libertadores fixtures and forecasts are on the CONMEBOL Libertadores Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.