Avispa Fukuoka vs Cerezo Osaka Prediction

Best Denki Stadium, Fukuoka·Atsushi Uemura, Japan 15/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.2 / 10
Value Analysis
63%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams to Score
1.75
SignalSOLIDModel41%SurpriseMediumGap+9.8%
Avispa Fukuoka Rest
7 days
Cerezo Osaka Rest
7 days

Avispa Fukuoka vs Cerezo Osaka: the result in context

Avispa Fukuoka beat Cerezo Osaka 3-0 in the J1 League on 15 Aug 2026. That went against recent form: Cerezo Osaka had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Avispa Fukuoka.

Cerezo Osaka have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.2 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
33%2.67
X
34%3.15
2
33%2.63
Double Chance
1X
67%1.44
X2
66%1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%1.75
No
37%1.95
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.36 + 1.44 = 2.80
Over 1.5
80%1.31
Over 2.5
53%2.02
Over 3.5
30%3.50
Under 1.5
20%3.09
Under 2.5
47%1.76
Under 3.5
70%1.26
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.1 + 4.7 = 9.9
Over 8.5
60%1.47
Over 9.5
49%1.85
Over 10.5
36%2.27
Under 8.5
40%2.36
Under 9.5
51%1.85
Under 10.5
64%1.51
Cards
Projected Cards: 2 + 1.9 = 4
Over 3.5
44%-
Over 4.5
27%-
Under 3.5
56%-
Under 4.5
73%-

Match Events

35'K. Fujimoto
43'Y. Tsujioka
45'K. MaedaFoul
46'K. Okazawa INJ. Irvine out
60'Y. Yokoyama INThiago Andrade out
60'S. Kagawa INY. Komi out
62'K. Fujimoto IND. Fukazawa out
62'M. Shigemi INS. Nago out
67'S. Morooka INS. Usui out
67'K. Maeda INK. Shiihashi out
74'Werik PopoAssist: D. Fukazawa
78'T. Nakamura INP. Sabbag out
84'A. Ohata INK. Noborizato out
84'K. Mikuni INT. Nara out

Lineups

Avispa Fukuoka
3-4-2-1Coach: Shinya Tsukahara
Cerezo Osaka
3-4-2-1Coach: Pablo Machin
Avg rating7.04
Avg rating6.29
Takumi Nagaishi7.01T. Nagaishi
Teppei Oka7.216T. Oka
Kennedy Egbus Mikuni7.020K. Egbus Mikuni
Yuma Tsujioka7.615Y. Tsujioka
Yu Hashimoto7.047Y. Hashimoto
Kokoro Maeda7.255K. Maeda
Tomoya MikiC7.211T. Miki
Kazuki Fujimoto8.022K. Fujimoto
Shu Morooka6.213S. Morooka
Masato Shigemi6.66M. Shigemi
Werik Popó8.39W. Popó
Kosuke Nakamura5.923K. Nakamura
Dion Cools5.627D. Cools
Shinnosuke Hatanaka6.244S. Hatanaka
Rikito Inoue6.94R. Inoue
Takumi Nakamura6.22T. Nakamura
Kosei Okazawa6.528K. Okazawa
Shunta TanakaC6.210S. Tanaka
Ayumu Ohata6.066A. Ohata
Shinji Kagawa6.68S. Kagawa
Yumeki Yokoyama6.314Y. Yokoyama
Solomon Sakuragawa5.69S. Sakuragawa

Avispa Fukuoka Substitutes

23Daiki Fukazawa62'for K. Fujimoto7.0
14Shintaro Nago62'for M. Shigemi6.7
41Kazuki Fujita
3Nara Tatsuki84'for K. Mikuni6.7
21Oriol Romeu
29Maejima Yota
34Keiya Shiihashi67'for K. Maeda6.2
18Sonosuke Sato
7Shosei Usui67'for S. Morooka6.7

Cerezo Osaka Substitutes

36Jackson Irvine46'for K. Okazawa7.0
41Yota Komi60'for S. Kagawa6.7
11Thiago Andrade60'for Y. Yokoyama6.2
31Koto Abe
97Travis Takahashi
16Hayato Okuda
6Kyohei Noborizato84'for A. Ohata6.3
77Lucas Fernandes
19Pablo Sabbag78'for T. Nakamura6.5

Match Stats

Avispa FukuokaCerezo Osaka
33%Ball Possession67%
4Corner Kicks2
1Yellow Cards0
13Total Shots7
6Shots on Goal1
5Shots off Goal4
9Shots Inside Box3
4Shots Outside Box4
2Blocked Shots2
11Fouls11
6Offsides0
1Goalkeeper Saves3
266Total Passes543
162Passes Accurate452
61%Pass Accuracy83%

Team Comparison

Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka
Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka
1423Elo Rating 1591
0.95Attack 1.59
0.68Defense 1.42
14%Hit Rate 34%
11.3Shots per Game 10.5
2.7Shots on Target 3.2
3.9Corners per Game 2.7
2.5Cards per Game 3.7

AI Insights

📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka2Wins · 20%
Draws220%
Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka6Wins · 60%
2.2Avg Goals
30%Both teams scored3 of 10
30%3+ goals3 of 10

Previous meetings

J1 League03/05/2026
Cerezo OsakaAvispa Fukuoka
4131
J1 League15/02/2026
Avispa FukuokaCerezo Osaka
02
J1 League13/09/2025
Avispa FukuokaCerezo Osaka
24
J1 League24/05/2025
Cerezo OsakaAvispa Fukuoka
20
J1 League09/11/2024
Cerezo OsakaAvispa Fukuoka
10
J1 League18/05/2024
Avispa FukuokaCerezo Osaka
03
J1 League30/06/2023
Cerezo OsakaAvispa Fukuoka
01
J1 League25/02/2023
Avispa FukuokaCerezo Osaka
21
J1 League30/07/2022
Cerezo OsakaAvispa Fukuoka
20
J1 League17/04/2022
Avispa FukuokaCerezo Osaka
00

Recent Form

Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka
4W1D5L
08/08/2026
Avispa FukuokaVissel Kobe
01
L
19/07/2026
Avispa FukuokaOsaka
32
W
11/07/2026
Avispa FukuokaKitakyushu
12
L
06/06/2026
JEF United ChibaAvispa Fukuoka
12
W
30/05/2026
Avispa FukuokaJEF United Chiba
22
D
23/05/2026
Avispa FukuokaVissel Kobe
01
L
10/05/2026
Shimizu S-pulseAvispa Fukuoka
4131
L
06/05/2026
Avispa FukuokaKyoto Sanga
5141
W
03/05/2026
Cerezo OsakaAvispa Fukuoka
4131
L
29/04/2026
Avispa FukuokaSanfrecce Hiroshima
4232
W
Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka
8W1D1L
08/08/2026
Cerezo OsakaFagiano Okayama
21
W
29/07/2026
Cerezo OsakaBorussia Dortmund
10
W
15/07/2026
Cerezo OsakaTochigi City
10
W
06/06/2026
FC TokyoCerezo Osaka
13
W
30/05/2026
Cerezo OsakaFC Tokyo
22
D
24/05/2026
Fagiano OkayamaCerezo Osaka
23
W
17/05/2026
Cerezo OsakaNagoya Grampus
61
W
09/05/2026
Cerezo OsakaV-varen Nagasaki
32
W
06/05/2026
Shimizu S-pulseCerezo Osaka
5131
L
03/05/2026
Cerezo OsakaAvispa Fukuoka
4131
W

Referee Profile

Atsushi Uemura35 matches

2.50Cards per match
2.43Yellow cards per match
0.07Red cards per match
21.6Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Atsushi Uemura2.50
Other referees2.57

2.50 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (2.57).

Cards come from 28 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

J1 League 2027
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia1283130:10+2027DWWWL
2FC TokyoFC Tokyo1283127:8+1927WDWWW
3Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima1282229:10+1926WLWWW
4Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol1281325:19+625WDLWW
5Vissel KobeVissel Kobe1272318:11+723DLWLW
6Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki Frontale1264225:18+722WWWLD
7UrawaUrawa1270521:23-221WWWLW
8KashimaKashima1262425:21+420LDWWD
9Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. Marinos1246216:12+418DDDDW
10Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama1251615:17-216LWLLL
11Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus1242614:18-414DDWWL
12Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka1235412:19-714DDLDD
13Shimizu S-pulseShimizu S-pulse1242610:20-1014LLDWW
14V-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki1233615:19-412LWLDD
15Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka1225514:21-711DWDLL
16Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga1224615:23-810DDLLW
17Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock1223712:22-109LLLLL
18Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy121569:21-128WDLLL
19Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka1221913:21-87LLLWL
20JEF United ChibaJEF United Chiba1214712:24-127DLDDL
#TeamMPGPts
1Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia1230:1027
2FC TokyoFC Tokyo1227:827
3Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima1229:1026
4Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol1225:1925
5Vissel KobeVissel Kobe1218:1123
6Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki Frontale1225:1822
7UrawaUrawa1221:2321
8KashimaKashima1225:2120
9Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. Marinos1216:1218
10Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama1215:1716
11Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus1214:1814
12Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka1212:1914
13Shimizu S-pulseShimizu S-pulse1210:2014
14V-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki1215:1912
15Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka1214:2111
16Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga1215:2310
17Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock1212:229
18Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy129:218
19Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka1213:217
20JEF United ChibaJEF United Chiba1212:247
Champions LeagueRelegation

About the Avispa Fukuoka vs Cerezo Osaka forecast

The forecasts for this J1 League match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Avispa Fukuoka and Cerezo Osaka in the J1 League table

In the J1 League table, Cerezo Osaka are 12th and Avispa Fukuoka 19th, 7 points apart. League goal record so far: Avispa Fukuoka 13-21, Cerezo Osaka 12-19. The full standings are on the J1 League Table 2027 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.