Cerezo Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama Prediction

Yodoko Sakura Stadium, Osaka·Yoshimi Yamashita, Japan 08/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.2 / 10
Value Analysis
62%Trust
Away Corners
Away Corners Under 4.5
1.72
SignalSOLIDModel46%SurpriseMediumGap+8.4%
Cerezo Osaka Rest
10 days
Fagiano Okayama Rest
13 days

Cerezo Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama: result, form and history

Cerezo Osaka beat Fagiano Okayama 2-1 in the J1 League on 8 Aug 2026. It was in line with recent form: Cerezo Osaka had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Fagiano Okayama.

Cerezo Osaka have had the better of this fixture, winning 3 of the 4 previous meetings, which averaged 3.5 goals a game. Referee Yoshimi Yamashita averages 2.26 cards a game, 0.63 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
54%1.90
X
25%3.60
2
21%3.85
Double Chance
1X
79%1.25
X2
46%1.87
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.67
No
47%2.05
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.79 + 0.95 = 2.74
Over 1.5
76%1.25
Over 2.5
50%1.80
Over 3.5
28%3.00
Under 1.5
24%3.75
Under 2.5
50%1.99
Under 3.5
72%1.36
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.9 + 4.5 = 9.4
Over 8.5
58%1.39
Over 9.5
48%1.70
Over 10.5
37%2.08
Under 8.5
42%2.59
Under 9.5
52%2.04
Under 10.5
63%1.67
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.6 + 2 = 3.6
Over 3.5
40%-
Over 4.5
27%-
Under 3.5
60%-
Under 4.5
73%-

Match Events

8'N. BrowneAssist: Y. Suzuki
20'S. SakuragawaAssist: K. Okazawa
24'Y. YokoyamaAssist: S. Kagawa
46'M. Matsumoto INOberdan out
58'S. Kagawa INL. Fernandes out
58'Y. Yokoyama INS. Uejo out
58'N. Browne INT. Yamane out
67'N. Takahashi INA. Ohata out
67'E. Miyamoto INKamiya Yuta out
67'Lucao INK. Ichimi out
75'A. OhataFoul
79'S. Sakuragawa INThiago Andrade out
79'T. Nakamura INH. Okuda out
79'A. Esaka INK. Kawano out
87'K. Kawano INR. Sueyoshi out
88'K. Okazawa INH. Kida out

Lineups

Cerezo Osaka
3-4-2-1Coach: Pablo Machin
Fagiano Okayama
3-4-2-1Coach: Takashi Kiyama
Avg rating6.90
Avg rating6.68
Kosuke Nakamura6.923K. Nakamura
Dion Cools6.727D. Cools
Shinnosuke Hatanaka6.744S. Hatanaka
Rikito Inoue7.64R. Inoue
Takumi Nakamura6.72T. Nakamura
Kosei Okazawa6.928K. Okazawa
Shunta TanakaC7.210S. Tanaka
Niko Takahashi6.922N. Takahashi
Shinji Kagawa6.68S. Kagawa
Yumeki Yokoyama8.214Y. Yokoyama
Solomon Sakuragawa8.09S. Sakuragawa
Shun Matsuda6.913S. Matsuda
Hiroshi Omori6.96H. Omori
Yugo Tatsuta6.548Y. Tatsuta
Yoshitake Suzuki6.243Y. Suzuki
Kosuke Shirai7.251K. Shirai
Masaya Matsumoto6.328M. Matsumoto
Eiji Miyamoto7.041E. Miyamoto
Noah Kenshin Browne7.579N. Kenshin Browne
Sang-Ho Na6.710S. Na
Ataru EsakaC6.28A. Esaka
Lucão6.299Lucão

Cerezo Osaka Substitutes

77Lucas Fernandes58'for S. Kagawa6.3
7Satoki Uejo58'for Y. Yokoyama6.7
66Ayumu Ohata67'for N. Takahashi75'6.7
16Hayato Okuda79'for T. Nakamura6.6
11Thiago Andrade79'for S. Sakuragawa6.3
5Hinata Kida88'for K. Okazawa6.3
31Koto Abe
97Travis Takahashi
41Yota Komi

Fagiano Okayama Substitutes

80Oberdan Alionço46'for M. Matsumoto6.9
88Towa Yamane58'for N. Browne6.6
33Yuta Kamiya67'for E. Miyamoto6.5
22Kazunari Ichimi67'for Lucao6.9
20Kota Kawano79'for A. Esaka87'for R. Sueyoshi6.3
17Rui Sueyoshi87'replaced by K. Kawano6.7
77Goro Kawanami
44Soichiro Mori
5Ikedo Shu

Match Stats

Cerezo OsakaFagiano Okayama
50%Ball Possession50%
5Corner Kicks8
1Yellow Cards0
6Total Shots17
4Shots on Goal5
1Shots off Goal10
3Shots Inside Box13
3Shots Outside Box4
1Blocked Shots2
14Fouls10
2Offsides6
3Goalkeeper Saves2
410Total Passes397
313Passes Accurate305
76%Pass Accuracy77%

Team Comparison

Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka
Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama
1591Elo Rating 1563
1.59Attack 1.43
1.42Defense 1.40
34%Hit Rate 41%
10.5Shots per Game 12.6
3.2Shots on Target 4.2
2.7Corners per Game 5.8
3.7Cards per Game 2.3

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend100% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 4 meetings, all competitions

Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka3Wins · 75%
Draws00%
Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama1Wins · 25%
3.5Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored4 of 4
100%3+ goals4 of 4

Previous meetings

J1 League24/05/2026
Fagiano OkayamaCerezo Osaka
23
J1 League18/03/2026
Cerezo OsakaFagiano Okayama
12
J1 League18/10/2025
Fagiano OkayamaCerezo Osaka
12
J1 League02/04/2025
Cerezo OsakaFagiano Okayama
21

Recent Form

Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka
8W1D1L
29/07/2026
Cerezo OsakaBorussia Dortmund
10
W
15/07/2026
Cerezo OsakaTochigi City
10
W
06/06/2026
FC TokyoCerezo Osaka
13
W
30/05/2026
Cerezo OsakaFC Tokyo
22
D
24/05/2026
Fagiano OkayamaCerezo Osaka
23
W
17/05/2026
Cerezo OsakaNagoya Grampus
61
W
09/05/2026
Cerezo OsakaV-varen Nagasaki
32
W
06/05/2026
Shimizu S-pulseCerezo Osaka
5131
L
03/05/2026
Cerezo OsakaAvispa Fukuoka
4131
W
29/04/2026
Vissel KobeCerezo Osaka
2040
W
Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama
4W1D5L
25/07/2026
FC Schalke 04Fagiano Okayama
31
L
22/07/2026
Werder BremenFagiano Okayama
20
L
21/07/2026
Metalist 1925 KharkivFagiano Okayama
12
W
14/07/2026
SV WehenFagiano Okayama
20
L
06/06/2026
UrawaFagiano Okayama
02
W
31/05/2026
Fagiano OkayamaUrawa
11
D
24/05/2026
Fagiano OkayamaCerezo Osaka
23
L
17/05/2026
Fagiano OkayamaShimizu S-pulse
20
W
10/05/2026
Vissel KobeFagiano Okayama
03
W
06/05/2026
V-varen NagasakiFagiano Okayama
21
L

Referee Profile

Yoshimi Yamashita98 matches

2.26Cards per match
2.16Yellow cards per match
0.09Red cards per match
23.7Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Yoshimi Yamashita2.26
Other referees2.89

2.26 cards a match, 0.63 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (2.89).

Cards come from 43 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

J1 League 2027
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia1283130:10+2027DWWWL
2FC TokyoFC Tokyo1283127:8+1927WDWWW
3Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima1282229:10+1926WLWWW
4Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol1281325:19+625WDLWW
5Vissel KobeVissel Kobe1272318:11+723DLWLW
6Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki Frontale1264225:18+722WWWLD
7UrawaUrawa1270521:23-221WWWLW
8KashimaKashima1262425:21+420LDWWD
9Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. Marinos1246216:12+418DDDDW
10Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama1251615:17-216LWLLL
11Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus1242614:18-414DDWWL
12Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka1235412:19-714DDLDD
13Shimizu S-pulseShimizu S-pulse1242610:20-1014LLDWW
14V-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki1233615:19-412LWLDD
15Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka1225514:21-711DWDLL
16Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga1224615:23-810DDLLW
17Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock1223712:22-109LLLLL
18Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy121569:21-128WDLLL
19Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka1221913:21-87LLLWL
20JEF United ChibaJEF United Chiba1214712:24-127DLDDL
#TeamMPGPts
1Machida ZelviaMachida Zelvia1230:1027
2FC TokyoFC Tokyo1227:827
3Sanfrecce HiroshimaSanfrecce Hiroshima1229:1026
4Kashiwa ReysolKashiwa Reysol1225:1925
5Vissel KobeVissel Kobe1218:1123
6Kawasaki FrontaleKawasaki Frontale1225:1822
7UrawaUrawa1221:2321
8KashimaKashima1225:2120
9Yokohama F. MarinosYokohama F. Marinos1216:1218
10Fagiano OkayamaFagiano Okayama1215:1716
11Nagoya GrampusNagoya Grampus1214:1814
12Cerezo OsakaCerezo Osaka1212:1914
13Shimizu S-pulseShimizu S-pulse1210:2014
14V-varen NagasakiV-varen Nagasaki1215:1912
15Gamba OsakaGamba Osaka1214:2111
16Kyoto SangaKyoto Sanga1215:2310
17Mito HollyhockMito Hollyhock1212:229
18Tokyo VerdyTokyo Verdy129:218
19Avispa FukuokaAvispa Fukuoka1213:217
20JEF United ChibaJEF United Chiba1212:247
Champions LeagueRelegation

About the Cerezo Osaka vs Fagiano Okayama forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Cerezo Osaka and Fagiano Okayama in the J1 League table

Fagiano Okayama and Cerezo Osaka are close in the J1 League table, 10th and 12th, with 2 points between them. League goal record so far: Cerezo Osaka 12-19, Fagiano Okayama 15-17. The full standings are on the J1 League Table 2027 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.