Guinea vs Kenya Prediction

Guinea
1-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Kenya
Stade 28 Septembre, Conakry 01/10/2026
GuineaGuinea
1-0
Finished
KenyaKenya

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
60%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.53
SignalNEUTRALModel59%SurpriseMediumGap-4.9%
Guinea Rest
5 days
Kenya Rest
5 days

Guinea vs Kenya: result, form and history

Guinea beat Kenya 1-0 in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on 1 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Guinea tend to win more corners, 4.5 a game to 2.0 for Kenya.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
60%1.53
X
26%3.50
2
14%6.50
Double Chance
1X
85%1.10
X2
40%2.31
Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score forecasts not available for this match

Goals

Goal forecasts not available for this match

Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

16'mohammed bajaberFoul
32'Serhou Guirassy
45'Micah Obiero INTimothy Ouma out
45'Job Ochieng INRambok Ryan Wesley Ogam out
45'Aboubacar Keita INMory Konate out
60'Aliou Balde INAguibou Camara out
60'mohammed bajaber INShariff Sirengo out
60'Seydouba Cisse INIbrahima Sory Bangoura out
64'Mohamed CamaraFoul
74'Ben Stanley Omondi INJavan Omondi Ochieng out
76'Abdoul Karim Traoré INOusmane Camara out
83'Yadaly Diaby INLamine Diaby Fadiga out
87'C. Erambo INAmos Wanjala out

Lineups

Guinea
4-2-3-1Coach: Paulo Duarte
Kenya
4-2-3-1Coach: Benni McCarthy
Avg rating7.04
Avg rating6.42
M. Camara7.022M. Camara
I. Fofana7.56I. Fofana
Mohamed Soumah7.45M. Soumah
A. Keita7.33A. Keita
S. Sylla7.621S. Sylla
Ousmane Diabate6.319O. Diabate
S. Cissé7.215S. Cissé
A. Balde7.210A. Balde
A. Traoré6.68A. Traoré
Y. Diaby7.111Y. Diaby
S. Guirassy7.79S. Guirassy
2323B. Odhiambo
R. Onyango6.616R. Onyango
M. Kibwage6.84M. Kibwage
F. Odhiambo6.45F. Odhiambo
M. Okwaro7.220M. Okwaro
1212C. Erambo
Duke Ooga Abuya6.08D. Ooga Abuya
J. Ochieng5.919J. Ochieng
2424B. Stanley Omondi
77m. bajaber
M. Obiero6.722M. Obiero

Guinea Substitutes

14M. Sylla
4S. Sow
20M. Konaté45'for Aboubacar Keita6.8
13Madiou Keita
16mory keita
24L. Diaby-Fadiga83'for Yadaly Diaby6.8
25O. Camara76'for Abdoul Karim Traoré6.6
18A. Camara60'for Aliou Balde6.7
17I. Bangoura60'for Seydouba Cisse6.9
23mohamed bangoura
1Mussa Diallo

Kenya Substitutes

18B. Bwire
3O. Khamis
13Javan Omondi Ochieng45'replaced by Rambok Ryan Wesley Ogam74'replaced by Ben Stanley Omondi
6M. Omondi
21S. Wilson
10T. Ouma45'for Micah Obiero6.2
1Farouk Shikalo
11Shariff Sirengo60'replaced by mohammed bajaber
14A. Wanjala87'replaced by C. Erambo6.3
15R. Ogam45'for Job Ochieng6.5
2H. Wesonga
17V. Harper

Match Stats

GuineaKenya
51%Ball Possession49%
5Corner Kicks2
1Yellow Cards1
9Total Shots5
3Shots on Goal2
3Shots off Goal2
6Shots Inside Box3
3Shots Outside Box2
3Blocked Shots1
10Fouls17
3Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves2
349Total Passes332
288Passes Accurate268
15Free Kicks10

Team Comparison

GuineaGuinea
KenyaKenya
1498Elo Rating 1423
1.31Attack 0.50
2.15Defense 1.55
41%Hit Rate 34%
9.9Shots per Game 5.0
2.5Shots on Target 2.0
4.5Corners per Game 2.0
1.2Cards per Game 1.6

Game State Tendencies

GuineaGuinea
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.8 vs 0.5 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
KenyaKenya
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.5 vs 0 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Recent Form

GuineaGuinea
3W3D4L
26/09/2026
South AfricaGuinea
21
L
04/06/2026
Northern IrelandGuinea
10
L
14/10/2025
GuineaBotswana
22
D
09/10/2025
MozambiqueGuinea
12
W
08/09/2025
GuineaAlgeria
00
D
05/09/2025
SomaliaGuinea
03
W
15/08/2025
GuineaAlgeria
11
D
11/08/2025
South AfricaGuinea
21
L
08/08/2025
GuineaUganda
03
L
04/08/2025
NigerGuinea
01
W
KenyaKenya
5W2D3L
26/09/2026
KenyaEritrea
11
D
07/06/2026
KenyaLesotho
40
W
04/06/2026
LesothoKenya
11
D
14/10/2025
Ivory CoastKenya
30
L
09/10/2025
BurundiKenya
01
W
09/09/2025
KenyaSeychelles
50
W
05/09/2025
KenyaGambia
13
L
22/08/2025
KenyaMadagascar
3141
L
17/08/2025
ZambiaKenya
01
W
10/08/2025
KenyaMorocco
10
W

League Table

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification 2027
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1South AfricaSouth Africa22007:1+66WW
2GuineaGuinea21012:203WL
3EritreaEritrea20111:6-51WW
4KenyaKenya20111:2-11LD
#TeamMPGPts
1South AfricaSouth Africa27:16
2GuineaGuinea22:23
3EritreaEritrea21:61
4KenyaKenya21:21
Promotion

About the Guinea vs Kenya forecast

This is a Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

More Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification fixtures and forecasts are on the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Guinea and Kenya have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.