Japan vs Sweden Prediction

Japan
1-1
Finished
HT 0-0
Sweden
AT&T Stadium, Arlington·Iván Barton, El Salvador 26/06/2026
JapanJapan
1-1
Finished
SwedenSweden

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
85%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.24
SignalSTRONGModel73%SurpriseMediumGap+4.7%
Value Analysis
61%Trust
1X2
Home Win
2.00
SignalSOLIDModel66%SurpriseMediumGap+11.3%
Japan Rest
4 days
Sweden Rest
5 days

Japan vs Sweden: result, form and history

Japan and Sweden drew 1-1 in the World Cup on 26 Jun 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee Iván Barton averages 3.89 cards a game, 0.57 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
61%2.00
X
24%3.35
2
15%4.02
Double Chance
1X
85%1.24
X2
39%1.80
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.72
No
49%2.05
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.21 + 0.85 = 3.06
Over 1.5
73%1.29
Over 2.5
47%1.93
Over 3.5
26%3.25
Under 1.5
27%3.40
Under 2.5
53%1.90
Under 3.5
74%1.33
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.9 + 2.4 = 9.3
Over 8.5
52%1.70
Over 9.5
43%2.10
Over 10.5
33%2.77
Under 8.5
48%2.07
Under 9.5
57%1.67
Under 10.5
67%1.39
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.1 + 1.7 = 2.9
Over 3.5
45%2.60
Over 4.5
26%3.58
Under 3.5
55%1.45
Under 4.5
74%1.25

Match Events

32'Isak HienFoul
37'Isak Hien INLucas Bergvall out
39'Ko Itakura INShogo Taniguchi out
56'Daizen MaedaAssist: Ritsu Doan
62'Anthony ElangaAssist: Viktor Gyökeres
66'Ayase Ueda INKoki Ogawa out
67'Ritsu Doan INJunya Ito out
75'Alexander Bernhardsson INDaniel Svensson out
75'Elliot Stroud INKen Sema out
75'Keito Nakamura INYuto Nagatomo out
75'Ayumu Seko INTsuyoshi Watanabe out
77'Shogo TaniguchiFoul
85'Viktor GyökeresFoul
87'Victor Lindelöf INCarl Starfelt out
88'Gabriel Gudmundsson INBenjamin Nygren out

Lineups

Japan
3-4-3Coach: H. Moriyasu
Sweden
3-4-1-2Coach: G. Potter
Avg rating6.86
Avg rating6.62
Z. Suzuki7.31Z. Suzuki
A. Seko6.520A. Seko
K. Itakura6.94K. Itakura
H. Ito7.021H. Ito
Y. Sugawara6.52Y. Sugawara
D. Kamada7.115D. Kamada
A. Tanaka7.47A. Tanaka
Keito Nakamura7.013K. Nakamura
R. Dōan6.710R. Dōan
A. Ueda6.418A. Ueda
D. Maeda6.811D. Maeda
J. Widell Zetterström6.21J. Widell Zetterström
G. Lagerbielke6.72G. Lagerbielke
I. Hien6.94I. Hien
V. Lindelöf6.83V. Lindelöf
A. Bernhardsson6.321A. Bernhardsson
E. Stroud6.624E. Stroud
Y. Ayari6.618Y. Ayari
G. Gudmundsson7.15G. Gudmundsson
A. Elanga6.511A. Elanga
V. Gyökeres6.417V. Gyökeres
A. Isak7.09A. Isak

Japan Substitutes

3S. Taniguchi39'for Ko Itakura77'6.6
5Y. Nagatomo75'for Keito Nakamura
14J. Ito67'for Ritsu Doan
22T. Tomiyasu
19Koki Ogawa66'for Ayase Ueda
12K. Osako
24K. Sano
16T. Watanabe75'for Ayumu Seko
17Y. Suzuki
23T. Hayakawa
25J. Suzuki
9K. Goto
26K. Shiogai
6S. Machino

Sweden Substitutes

22B. Zeneli
7L. Bergvall37'for Isak Hien6.5
8D. Svensson75'for Alexander Bernhardsson
6H. Johansson
26T. Ali
10B. Nygren88'for Gabriel Gudmundsson
12V. Johansson
14H. Ekdal
19M. Svanberg
25G. Nilsson
20E. Smith
15C. Starfelt87'for Victor Lindelöf
13K. Sema75'for Elliot Stroud
16J. Karlström
23K. Nordfeldt

Match Stats

JapanSweden
52%Ball Possession48%
2Corner Kicks8
1Yellow Cards2
8Total Shots11
3Shots on Goal5
3Shots off Goal3
4Shots Inside Box6
4Shots Outside Box5
2Blocked Shots3
20Fouls11
3Offsides2
4Goalkeeper Saves2
445Total Passes395
378Passes Accurate312
85%Pass Accuracy79%

Team Comparison

JapanJapan
SwedenSweden
1789Elo Rating 1648
1.46Attack 1.41
2.18Defense 1.99
41%Hit Rate 63%
11.9Shots per Game 10.4
4.5Shots on Target 3.7
4.0Corners per Game 2.5
1.2Cards per Game 0.9

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+141 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.06 goals
📈BTTS Trend

Game State Tendencies

JapanJapan
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
SwedenSweden
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches

Recent Form

JapanJapan
6W3D1L
21/06/2026
TunisiaJapan
04
W
14/06/2026
NetherlandsJapan
22
D
31/05/2026
JapanIceland
10
W
10/06/2025
JapanIndonesia
60
W
05/06/2025
AustraliaJapan
10
L
25/03/2025
JapanSaudi Arabia
00
D
20/03/2025
JapanBahrain
20
W
19/11/2024
ChinaJapan
13
W
15/11/2024
IndonesiaJapan
04
W
15/10/2024
JapanAustralia
11
D
SwedenSweden
3W2D5L
20/06/2026
NetherlandsSweden
51
L
15/06/2026
SwedenTunisia
51
W
04/06/2026
SwedenGreece
22
D
01/06/2026
NorwaySweden
31
L
31/03/2026
SwedenPoland
32
W
26/03/2026
UkraineSweden
13
W
18/11/2025
SwedenSlovenia
11
D
15/11/2025
SwitzerlandSweden
41
L
13/10/2025
SwedenKosovo
01
L
10/10/2025
SwedenSwitzerland
02
L

Referee Profile

Iván Barton18 matches

3.89Cards per match
3.56Yellow cards per match
0.33Red cards per match
25.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Iván Barton3.89
Other referees3.32

3.89 cards a match, 0.57 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.32).

Cards come from 18 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

World Cup 2026

Group F

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1NetherlandsNetherlands321010:4+67WWD
2JapanJapan31207:3+45DWD
3SwedenSweden31117:704DLW
4TunisiaTunisia30032:12-100LLL
#TeamMPGPts
1NetherlandsNetherlands310:47
2JapanJapan37:35
3SwedenSweden37:74
4TunisiaTunisia32:120

Group Stage

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Congo DRCongo DR31114:3+14WLD
2SwedenSweden31117:704DLW
3GhanaGhana31112:204LDW
4EcuadorEcuador31112:204WDL
5Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina31115:6-14WLD
6AlgeriaAlgeria31115:7-24DWL
7ParaguayParaguay31112:4-24DWL
8SenegalSenegal31028:6+23WLL
9IranIran30303:303DDD
10South KoreaSouth Korea31022:3-13LLW
11ScotlandScotland31021:4-33LLW
12UruguayUruguay30213:4-12LDD
#TeamMPGPts
1Congo DRCongo DR34:34
2SwedenSweden37:74
3GhanaGhana32:24
4EcuadorEcuador32:24
5Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina35:64
6AlgeriaAlgeria35:74
7ParaguayParaguay32:44
8SenegalSenegal38:63
9IranIran33:33
10South KoreaSouth Korea32:33
11ScotlandScotland31:43
12UruguayUruguay33:42

About the Japan vs Sweden forecast

This is a World Cup cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Japan and Sweden in the World Cup table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Japan are 2nd in the World Cup, 1 point ahead of Sweden in 3rd. League goal record so far: Japan 7-3, Sweden 7-7. The full standings are on the World Cup Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.0 out of 10 by our context model. Japan and Sweden have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.