Türkiye vs USA Prediction

World CupWorld World · Group Stage - 3
Cup
Türkiye
3-2
Finished
HT 2-1
USA
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood·Mustapha Ghorbal, Algeria 26/06/2026
TürkiyeTürkiye
3-2
Finished
USAUSA

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.0 / 10
Value Analysis
75%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.56
SignalHIGHModel10%SurpriseHighGap+12.5%
Türkiye Rest
5 days
USA Rest
6 days

Türkiye vs USA: the result in context

Türkiye beat USA 3-2 in the World Cup on 26 Jun 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee Mustapha Ghorbal averages 4.63 cards a game, 0.85 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
37%3.92
X
30%4.15
2
33%1.80
Double Chance
1X
67%1.95
X2
63%1.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.53
No
49%2.38
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.27 + 1.27 = 2.54
Over 1.5
72%1.17
Over 2.5
46%1.57
Over 3.5
25%2.42
Under 1.5
28%4.83
Under 2.5
54%2.38
Under 3.5
75%1.56
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.4 + 3.3 = 8.7
Over 8.5
52%1.52
Over 9.5
43%1.91
Over 10.5
32%2.40
Under 8.5
48%2.40
Under 9.5
57%1.85
Under 10.5
68%1.53
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 1.5 = 3.3
Over 3.5
49%2.88
Over 4.5
28%3.80
Under 3.5
51%1.36
Under 4.5
72%1.26

Match Events

3'A. TrustyAssist: S. Berhalter
10'A. GulerAssist: B. Yilmaz
19'S. BerhalterRoughing
31'B. YilmazAssist: O. Kokcu
49'S. Berhalter
58'T. Weah INC. Pulisic out
76'G. Reyna INS. Dest out
77'B. Aaronson INA. Zendejas out
77'J. Scally INA. Freeman out
84'Z. Celik INC. Soyuncu out
84'K. Yildiz INC. Uzun out
86'W. McKennie INM. Tillman out
88'O. Kokcu INK. Ayhan out
90+2'O. Aydin INM. Muldur out
90+2'B. Yilmaz INI. Kahveci out
90+8'K. Ayhan

Lineups

Türkiye
3-4-2-1Coach: Vincenzo Montella
USA
4-3-3Coach: Mauricio Pochettino
Avg rating7.24
Avg rating6.51
Uğurcan Çakır7.223U. Çakır
Zeki ÇelikC7.62Z. Çelik
Ozan Kabak7.315O. Kabak
Abdülkerim Bardakcı6.914A. Bardakcı
Oğuz Aydın7.224O. Aydın
Salih Özcan7.25S. Özcan
Orkun Kökçü5.96O. Kökçü
Eren Elmalı7.713E. Elmalı
Arda Güler8.78A. Güler
Kenan Yıldız6.911K. Yıldız
Barış Alper Yılmaz7.521B. Alper Yılmaz
Matt Turner5.91M. Turner
Joe Scally6.223J. Scally
Miles Robinson6.712M. Robinson
Mark McKenzie6.222M. McKenzie
Auston Trusty7.26A. Trusty
Weston McKennieC7.28W. McKennie
Sebastian Berhalter8.314S. Berhalter
Giovanni Reyna6.27G. Reyna
Brenden Aaronson6.211B. Aaronson
Ricardo Pepi5.99R. Pepi
Tim Weah5.921T. Weah

Türkiye Substitutes

4Çağlar Söyüncü84'for Z. Celik6.9
26Can Uzun84'for K. Yildiz6.6
22Kaan Ayhan88'for O. Kokcu90+8'7.7
18Mert Müldür90+2'for O. Aydin
17İrfan Can Kahveci90+2'for B. Yilmaz
12Altay Bayındır
1Mert Günok
3Merih Demiral
20Ferdi Kadıoğlu
25Samet Akaydın
10Hakan Çalhanoğlu
19Yunus Akgün
16İsmail Yüksek
9Deniz Gül
7Kerem Aktürkoğlu

USA Substitutes

10Christian Pulišić58'for T. Weah7.2
2Sergiño Dest76'for G. Reyna6.2
16Alexander Freeman77'for J. Scally6.3
26Alex Zendejas77'for B. Aaronson6.3
17Malik Tillman86'for W. McKennie6.2
25Chris Brady
24Matthew Freese
5Antonee Robinson
3Chris Richards
13Tim Ream
18Maximilian Arfsten
4Tyler Adams
20Folarin Balogun
19Haji Wright

Match Stats

TürkiyeUSA
47%Ball Possession53%
2Corner Kicks9
0Yellow Cards1
9Total Shots18
3Shots on Goal7
4Shots off Goal6
8Shots Inside Box15
1Shots Outside Box3
2Blocked Shots5
13Fouls13
2Offsides5
5Goalkeeper Saves1
434Total Passes471
335Passes Accurate398
77%Pass Accuracy85%

Team Comparison

TürkiyeTürkiye
USAUSA
1630Elo Rating 1697
0.89Attack 2.01
0.28Defense 1.20
14%Hit Rate 54%
15.2Shots per Game 11.1
4.7Shots on Target 3.5
5.9Corners per Game 5.1
2.5Cards per Game 1.6

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

TürkiyeTürkiye
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.6 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
USAUSA
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.4 vs 0.6 in second half)

Recent Form

TürkiyeTürkiye
7W1D2L
20/06/2026
TürkiyeParaguay
01
L
14/06/2026
AustraliaTürkiye
20
L
07/06/2026
VenezuelaTürkiye
12
W
01/06/2026
TürkiyeFYR Macedonia
40
W
31/03/2026
KosovoTürkiye
01
W
26/03/2026
TürkiyeRomania
10
W
18/11/2025
SpainTürkiye
22
D
15/11/2025
TürkiyeBulgaria
20
W
14/10/2025
TürkiyeGeorgia
41
W
11/10/2025
BulgariaTürkiye
16
W
USAUSA
8W0D2L
19/06/2026
USAAustralia
20
W13/06/2026
USAParaguay
41
W
06/06/2026
USAGermany
12
L
31/05/2026
USASenegal
32
W
07/07/2025
USAMexico
12
L
03/07/2025
USAGuatemala
21
W
30/06/2025
USACosta Rica
4232
W
23/06/2025
USAHaiti
21
W
20/06/2025
Saudi ArabiaUSA
01
W
16/06/2025
USATrinidad and Tobago
50
W

Referee Profile

Mustapha Ghorbal114 matches

4.65Cards per match
4.44Yellow cards per match
0.21Red cards per match
35.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Mustapha Ghorbal4.63
Other referees3.78

4.63 cards a match, 0.85 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.78).

Cards come from 43 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

World Cup 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1USAUSA32018:4+46LWW
2AustraliaAustralia31112:204DLW
3ParaguayParaguay31112:4-24DWL
4TürkiyeTürkiye31023:5-23WLL
#TeamMPGPts
1USAUSA38:46
2AustraliaAustralia32:24
3ParaguayParaguay32:44
4TürkiyeTürkiye33:53

Explore more predictions

This match

More World Cup matches

All predictions

About the Türkiye vs USA forecast

This is a World Cup cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Türkiye and USA in the World Cup table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: USA are 1st in the World Cup, 3 points ahead of Türkiye in 4th. League goal record so far: Türkiye 3-5, USA 8-4. The full standings are on the World Cup Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.0 out of 10 by our context model. USA have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Türkiye and USA have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.