New Zealand vs Belgium Prediction

New Zealand
1-5
Finished
HT 0-1
Belgium
BC Place, Vancouver·Adham Mohammad, Jordan 27/06/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.0 / 10
Value Analysis
68%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 10.5
1.73
SignalGOODModel90%SurpriseMediumGap+12.9%
New Zealand Rest
5 days
Belgium Rest
5 days

New Zealand vs Belgium: result, form and history

Belgium beat New Zealand 5-1 in the World Cup on 27 Jun 2026. It was in line with recent form: Belgium had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for New Zealand.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
7%14.50
X
15%7.65
2
78%1.19
Double Chance
1X
22%4.63
X2
93%1.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.80
No
49%1.93
Goals
Projected Goals: 0.97 + 2.29 = 3.26
Over 1.5
73%1.07
Over 2.5
50%1.29
Over 3.5
29%1.78
Under 1.5
27%7.50
Under 2.5
50%3.40
Under 3.5
71%2.00
Corners
Projected Corners: 3 + 5.8 = 8.8
Over 8.5
52%1.37
Over 9.5
43%1.67
Over 10.5
32%2.02
Under 8.5
48%2.81
Under 9.5
57%2.10
Under 10.5
68%1.73
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.6 + 1.3 = 2.9
Over 3.5
45%2.55
Over 4.5
26%3.55
Under 3.5
55%1.47
Under 4.5
74%1.27

Match Events

28'L. Trossard
46'S. Singh INJ. Randall out
46'R. Thomas INB. Old out
46'M. StamenicTripping
50'L. TrossardAssist: H. Vanaken
56'E. JustHolding
56'J. Doku INM. Fernandez-Pardo out
64'T. Payne INM. Boxall out
64'J. Bell INC. McCowatt out
66'K. De Bruyne
72'L. Trossard INA. Saelemaekers out
72'K. De Bruyne INA. Onana out
79'L. Cacace INF. De Vries out
84'E. Just
85'C. De Ketelaere INR. Lukaku out
85'Y. Tielemans INN. Raskin out
86'R. LukakuAssist: N. Raskin
90+4'A. SaelemaekersAssist: R. Lukaku

Lineups

New Zealand
4-2-3-1
Belgium
4-2-3-1Coach: Rudi Garcia
Avg rating6.42
Avg rating7.08
Max Crocombe5.21M. Crocombe
Tim Payne6.22T. Payne
Finn Surman5.916F. Surman
Tyler Bindon5.94T. Bindon
Liberato Cacace6.613L. Cacace
Joe Bell6.56J. Bell
Marko Stamenić6.98M. Stamenić
Sarpreet Singh7.210S. Singh
Ryan Thomas6.723R. Thomas
Elijah Just7.311E. Just
Chris WoodC6.69C. Wood
Thibaut Courtois6.31T. Courtois
Timothy Castagne6.621T. Castagne
Brandon Mechele7.04B. Mechele
Arthur Theate6.73A. Theate
Maxim De Cuyper6.95M. De Cuyper
Youri TielemansC7.08Y. Tielemans
Hans Vanaken6.320H. Vanaken
Jérémy Doku6.911J. Doku
Kevin De Bruyne9.07K. De Bruyne
Leandro Trossard8.710L. Trossard
Charles De Ketelaere6.217C. De Ketelaere

New Zealand Substitutes

21Jesse Randall46'for S. Singh6.7
19Benjamin Old46'for R. Thomas6.6
5Michael Boxall64'for T. Payne5.9
20Callum McCowatt64'for J. Bell6.3
3Francis De Vries79'for L. Cacace6.2
22Michael Woud
12Alex Paulsen
15Nando Pijnaker
26Tommy Smith
24Callan Elliot
14Alex Rufer
25Lachlan Bayliss
7Logan Rogerson
17Kosta Barbarouses
18Ben Waine

Belgium Substitutes

26Matías Fernández-Pardo56'for J. Doku6.9
24Amadou Onana72'for K. De Bruyne6.3
22Alexis Saelemaekers72'for L. Trossard90+4'7.9
23Nicolas Raskin85'for Y. Tielemans7.3
9Romelu Lukaku85'for C. De Ketelaere86'7.3
12Senne Lammens
13Mike Penders
18Joaquin Seys
16Koni De Winter
15Thomas Meunier
19Diego Moreira
14Dodi Lukebakio
6Axel Witsel

Match Stats

New ZealandBelgium
46%Ball Possession54%
5Corner Kicks8
2Yellow Cards0
6Total Shots35
2Shots on Goal10
3Shots off Goal13
3Shots Inside Box23
3Shots Outside Box12
1Blocked Shots12
10Fouls7
1Offsides1
5Goalkeeper Saves1
436Total Passes525
369Passes Accurate462
85%Pass Accuracy88%

Team Comparison

New ZealandNew Zealand
BelgiumBelgium
1516Elo Rating 1787
1.14Attack 1.43
0.48Defense 1.45
0%Hit Rate 39%
8.8Shots per Game 11.4
2.8Shots on Target 4.8
2.7Corners per Game 2.9
1.0Cards per Game 3.0

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.26 goals

Game State Tendencies

New ZealandNew Zealand
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.8 vs 0.3 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
BelgiumBelgium
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Recent Form

New ZealandNew Zealand
5W1D4L
22/06/2026
New ZealandEgypt
13
L
16/06/2026
IranNew Zealand
22
D
06/06/2026
EnglandNew Zealand
10
L
03/06/2026
HaitiNew Zealand
40
L
24/03/2025
New CaledoniaNew Zealand
03
W
21/03/2025
New ZealandFiji
70
W
18/11/2024
SamoaNew Zealand
08
W
15/11/2024
New ZealandVanuatu
81
W
11/10/2024
New ZealandTahiti
30
W
14/06/2022
Costa RicaNew Zealand
10
L
BelgiumBelgium
6W4D0L
21/06/2026
BelgiumIran
00
D
15/06/2026
BelgiumEgypt
11
D
06/06/2026
BelgiumTunisia
50
W
02/06/2026
CroatiaBelgium
02
W
18/11/2025
BelgiumLiechtenstein
70
W
15/11/2025
KazakhstanBelgium
11
D
13/10/2025
WalesBelgium
24
W
10/10/2025
BelgiumFYR Macedonia
00
D
07/09/2025
BelgiumKazakhstan
60
W
04/09/2025
LiechtensteinBelgium
06
W

Referee Profile

Adham Mohammad28 matches

3.26Cards per match
3.19Yellow cards per match
0.07Red cards per match
24.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Adham Mohammad3.26
Other referees3.44

3.26 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.44).

Cards come from 27 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

World Cup 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1BelgiumBelgium31206:2+45WDD
2EgyptEgypt31205:3+25DWD
3IranIran30303:303DDD
4New ZealandNew Zealand30124:10-61LLD
#TeamMPGPts
1BelgiumBelgium36:25
2EgyptEgypt35:35
3IranIran33:33
4New ZealandNew Zealand34:101

About the New Zealand vs Belgium forecast

This is a World Cup cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

New Zealand and Belgium in the World Cup table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Belgium are 1st in the World Cup, 4 points ahead of New Zealand in 4th. League goal record so far: New Zealand 4-10, Belgium 6-2. The full standings are on the World Cup Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.0 out of 10 by our context model. Belgium have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. New Zealand and Belgium have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.