Monterey Bay vs Sporting JAX Prediction

USL ChampionshipUSA USA · Group Stage
Monterey Bay
2-1
Finished
HT 1-0
Sporting JAX
Cardinale Stadium 11/06/2026
Monterey BayMonterey Bay
2-1
Finished
Sporting JAXSporting JAX

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
81%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.45
SignalSTRONGModel10%SurpriseHighGap+12.1%
Value Analysis
81%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.45
SignalSTRONGModel9%SurpriseHigh
Monterey Bay Rest
3 days
Sporting JAX Rest
4 days

Monterey Bay vs Sporting JAX: the result in context

Monterey Bay beat Sporting JAX 2-1 in the USL Championship on 11 Jun 2026. It was in line with recent form: Monterey Bay had won 2 of their previous five, compared with none for Sporting JAX.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
38%1.66
X
22%3.90
2
40%4.30
Double Chance
1X
60%1.17
X2
62%2.08
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%1.60
No
56%2.15
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.2 + 1 = 2.20
Over 1.5
64%1.18
Over 2.5
39%1.62
Over 3.5
19%2.50
Under 1.5
36%4.30
Under 2.5
61%2.19
Under 3.5
81%1.45
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

19'J. GarciaAssist: I. Paul
26'H. NevilleUnsportsmanlike conduct
58'R. Somersall INW. Kuzain out
65'C. Nadje INW. Leggett out
70'K. Sadlier
75'R. NakamuraFoul
77'W. KuzainFoul
80'R. Bidois
83'S. Lletget INE. Blancas out
84'R. BidoisDelay of game

Team Comparison

Monterey BayMonterey Bay
Sporting JAXSporting JAX
1316Elo Rating 1317
0.95Attack 0.36
1.21Defense 0.51
19%Hit Rate 0%

AI Insights

💎Value Analysis Identified
⚠️Away Rotation Risk70%

Game State Tendencies

Monterey BayMonterey Bay
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Sporting JAXSporting JAX
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.4 vs 0 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Recent Form

Monterey BayMonterey Bay
2W1D7L
07/06/2026
Sacramento RepublicMonterey Bay
5131
L
31/05/2026
Monterey BayLoudoun United
41
W
24/05/2026
Monterey BayBirmingham Legion
20
W
17/05/2026
BoiseMonterey Bay
43
L
09/05/2026
LexingtonMonterey Bay
31
L
04/05/2026
Monterey BayFC Tulsa
12
L
18/04/2026
Colorado SpringsMonterey Bay
41
L
12/04/2026
Indy ElevenMonterey Bay
31
L
05/04/2026
Monterey BaySan Antonio
00
D
29/03/2026
Las Vegas LightsMonterey Bay
10
L
Sporting JAXSporting JAX
0W2D8L
07/06/2026
Sporting JAXTampa Bay Rowdies
02
L
31/05/2026
Sporting JAXBrooklyn
22
D
28/05/2026
Sporting JAXSan Antonio
44
D
17/05/2026
NaplesSporting JAX
3111
L
10/05/2026
Indy ElevenSporting JAX
21
L
03/05/2026
Charleston BatterySporting JAX
40
L
18/04/2026
Louisville CitySporting JAX
10
L
11/04/2026
Detroit CitySporting JAX
10
L
05/04/2026
Sporting JAXTampa Bay Rowdies
01
L
29/03/2026
Pittsburgh RiverhoundsSporting JAX
32
L

League Table

USL Championship 2026

USL Championship — Group 1

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Tampa Bay RowdiesTampa Bay Rowdies30187552:26+2661WWWLD
2Charleston BatteryCharleston Battery30165956:35+2153WWDLW
3Detroit CityDetroit City30149734:21+1351DLWWW
4Louisville CityLouisville City30138951:43+847DWWWD
5Pittsburgh RiverhoundsPittsburgh Riverhounds301361133:30+345WDWLL
6Hartford AthleticHartford Athletic301013735:33+243WLDLD
7Rhode IslandRhode Island301261242:33+942LDWLW
8Miami FCMiami FC30991239:49-1036LLWWW
9Indy ElevenIndy Eleven30971435:41-634LLLDL
10Loudoun UnitedLoudoun United306131138:48-1031WDLWD
11Birmingham LegionBirmingham Legion306121240:46-630LWDWL
12BrooklynBrooklyn30561934:63-2921LLWLL
13Sporting JAXSporting JAX30352232:78-4614LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Tampa Bay RowdiesTampa Bay Rowdies3052:2661
2Charleston BatteryCharleston Battery3056:3553
3Detroit CityDetroit City3034:2151
4Louisville CityLouisville City3051:4347
5Pittsburgh RiverhoundsPittsburgh Riverhounds3033:3045
6Hartford AthleticHartford Athletic3035:3343
7Rhode IslandRhode Island3042:3342
8Miami FCMiami FC3039:4936
9Indy ElevenIndy Eleven3035:4134
10Loudoun UnitedLoudoun United3038:4831
11Birmingham LegionBirmingham Legion3040:4630
12BrooklynBrooklyn3034:6321
13Sporting JAXSporting JAX3032:7814

USL Championship — Group 2

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1New Mexico UnitedNew Mexico United30157845:34+1152WLWWL
2Sacramento RepublicSacramento Republic301312542:28+1451WWDDW
3El Paso LocomotiveEl Paso Locomotive301551048:38+1050LLWLD
4LexingtonLexington301461057:39+1848DWDWW
5Colorado SpringsColorado Springs30138944:38+647WWDDD
6San AntonioSan Antonio301112732:30+245WWDLD
7FC TulsaFC Tulsa301110934:31+343LLDDW
8Phoenix RisingPhoenix Rising3010101045:46-140DWWLL
9Orange County SCOrange County SC301091139:49-1039LLLLW
10Oakland RootsOakland Roots309111039:40-138LWDDW
11Las Vegas LightsLas Vegas Lights301061441:48-736LLLWL
12Monterey BayMonterey Bay30661832:52-2024WLLWL
#TeamMPGPts
1New Mexico UnitedNew Mexico United3045:3452
2Sacramento RepublicSacramento Republic3042:2851
3El Paso LocomotiveEl Paso Locomotive3048:3850
4LexingtonLexington3057:3948
5Colorado SpringsColorado Springs3044:3847
6San AntonioSan Antonio3032:3045
7FC TulsaFC Tulsa3034:3143
8Phoenix RisingPhoenix Rising3045:4640
9Orange County SCOrange County SC3039:4939
10Oakland RootsOakland Roots3039:4038
11Las Vegas LightsLas Vegas Lights3041:4836
12Monterey BayMonterey Bay3032:5224

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About the Monterey Bay vs Sporting JAX forecast

The forecasts for this USL Championship match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About USL Championship

More USL Championship fixtures and forecasts are on the USL Championship Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Monterey Bay and Sporting JAX have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.