Montpellier vs Metz Prediction

Montpellier
2-3
Finished
HT 0-2
Metz
Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier·Eddy Rosier 06/11/2026
MontpellierMontpellier
2-3
Finished
MetzMetz

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
3.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
79%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.24
SignalHIGHModel56%SurpriseMediumGap-2.0%
Value Analysis
68%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Over 8.5
1.50
SignalGOODModel68%SurpriseMediumGap+2.1%
Montpellier Rest
6 days
Metz Rest
7 days

Montpellier vs Metz: result, form and history

Metz beat Montpellier 3-2 in the Ligue 2 on 6 Nov 2026. That went against recent form: Montpellier had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Metz.

Their 7 previous meetings averaged 2.9 goals, with both teams scoring in 3 of them. Referee Eddy Rosier averages 3.39 cards a game, 0.75 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
54%1.85
X
23%3.58
2
23%3.98
Double Chance
1X
77%1.24
X2
46%1.92
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%1.57
No
43%2.30
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.54 + 0.87 = 2.41
Over 1.5
77%1.18
Over 2.5
54%1.65
Over 3.5
33%2.60
Under 1.5
23%4.40
Under 2.5
46%2.23
Under 3.5
67%1.48
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.7 + 4.6 = 10.3
Over 8.5
68%1.50
Over 9.5
56%1.85
Over 10.5
45%2.35
Under 8.5
32%2.40
Under 9.5
44%1.87
Under 10.5
55%1.52
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2.6 = 4.5
Over 3.5
65%-
Over 4.5
46%-
Under 3.5
35%-
Under 4.5
54%-

Match Events

21'Jessy DeminguetFoul
26'Bouna Sarr
31'Daylam MeddahFoul
43'Yaël Mouanga BoudzoumouOG
50'Daylam MeddahAssist: Naoufel El Hannach
51'Jessy DeminguetAssist: Pape Moussa Fall
60'Idris MohamedFoul
62'Naoufel El Hannach INThéo Chennahi out
62'Laciné Megnan-Pavé INNordan Mukiele out
62'Daryll Benlahlou INNoah Vidal out
66'Daylam Meddah INHichem Abderrebi out
80'Jahyann Pandore INNathan Mbala out
80'Jessy Deminguet INBelieve Munongo out
90'Mamadou Camara
90+1'Idris Mohamed INJean Ruiz out
90+2'Teji Savanier INBryan Song out

Lineups

Montpellier
4-2-3-1Coach: Z. Camara
Metz
5-4-1Coach: Grégory Proment
Avg rating6.34
Avg rating6.64
S. Ngapandouetnbu5.931S. Ngapandouetnbu
Naoufel El Hannach7.03N. El Hannach
J. Laporte6.615J. Laporte
Y. Mouanga5.46Y. Mouanga
Y. Zouaoui6.828Y. Zouaoui
F. Tardieu6.35F. Tardieu
D. Meddah7.727D. Meddah
N. Pays6.118N. Pays
Daryll Benlahlou5.723D. Benlahlou
Lacine Megnan-Pave5.79L. Megnan-Pave
M. Camara7.411M. Camara
J. Fischer6.71J. Fischer
B. Sarr7.670B. Sarr
M. Colin6.42M. Colin
C. Devenish7.042C. Devenish
U. Mboula7.14U. Mboula
F. Miguel6.13F. Miguel
J. Deminguet7.08J. Deminguet
I. Mohamed6.198I. Mohamed
T. Savanier6.610T. Savanier
J. Pandore6.321J. Pandore
P. Fall6.711P. Fall

Montpellier Substitutes

44T. Chennahi62'for Naoufel El Hannach6.0
10Y. Benhattab
90Gregory Ayem
32Hichem Abderrebi66'for Daylam Meddah5.9
36Massaoly Diarra
1M. Michel
19N. Mukiele62'for Laciné Megnan-Pavé6.7
77Everson
40N. Vidal-Cartoux62'for Daryll Benlahlou6.0

Metz Substitutes

61P. Sy
88A. Agne Ba
19M. Bokele Mputu
22N. Mbala80'for Jahyann Pandore6.5
33Abdourahmane Mbodj
18B. Munongo80'for Jessy Deminguet6.1
5J. Ruiz90+1'for Idris Mohamed
7Ibou Sané
39B. Song90+2'for Teji Savanier

Match Stats

MontpellierMetz
64%Ball Possession36%
9Corner Kicks4
1Yellow Cards2
23Total Shots7
5Shots on Goal2
11Shots off Goal3
12Shots Inside Box6
11Shots Outside Box1
7Blocked Shots2
16Fouls19
3Offsides0
0Goalkeeper Saves3
492Total Passes280
436Passes Accurate215
19Free Kicks16

Team Comparison

MontpellierMontpellier
MetzMetz
1723Elo Rating 1603
2.39Attack 2.01
2.00Defense 0.68
73%Hit Rate 44%
15.0Shots per Game 13.0
5.4Shots on Target 4.8
5.3Corners per Game 4.9
2.1Cards per Game 2.0

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+120 Elo
📈BTTS Trend43% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

MontpellierMontpellier
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.8 vs 0.6 in first half)
MetzMetz
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.2 vs 0.8 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 7 meetings, all competitions

MontpellierMontpellier4Wins · 57%
Draws229%
MetzMetz1Wins · 14%
2.9Avg Goals
43%Both teams scored3 of 7
57%3+ goals4 of 7

Previous meetings

Coupe de France11/01/2026
MetzMontpellier
04
Ligue 118/02/2024
MontpellierMetz
30
Ligue 117/12/2023
MetzMontpellier
01
Ligue 101/05/2022
MontpellierMetz
22
Ligue 101/12/2021
MetzMontpellier
13
Ligue 103/02/2021
MetzMontpellier
11
Ligue 116/12/2020
MontpellierMetz
02

Recent Form

MontpellierMontpellier
7W2D1L
MetzMetz
2W5D3L
30/10/2026
MetzPAU
13
L
23/10/2026
DunkerqueMetz
11
D
17/10/2026
MetzSochaux
32
W
12/10/2026
DijonMetz
42
L
19/09/2026
MetzSaint Etienne
22
D
14/09/2026
RED Star FC 93Metz
10
L
05/09/2026
MetzRodez
41
W
29/08/2026
AnnecyMetz
11
D
22/08/2026
MetzLaval
11
D
14/08/2026
GrenobleMetz
00
D

Referee Profile

Eddy Rosier116 matches

3.39Cards per match
3.12Yellow cards per match
0.27Red cards per match
27.5Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Eddy Rosier3.39
Other referees4.14

3.39 cards a match, 0.75 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.14).

Cards come from 41 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Ligue 2 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Saint EtienneSaint Etienne1291225:11+1428WLWWW
2NancyNancy1281317:9+825WWWWW
3MontpellierMontpellier1273218:9+924LWWWW
4ReimsReims1256124:15+921LWDWD
5PAUPAU1262416:13+320LWWWW
6DijonDijon1253421:19+218WWLLW
7MetzMetz1245320:19+117WLDWL
8RED Star FC 93RED Star FC 931252514:17-317LLLLW
9AnnecyAnnecy1251614:18-416LLWLW
10DunkerqueDunkerque1243517:17015WLDWL
11GuingampGuingamp1242616:18-214LWWLL
12BoulogneBoulogne1227310:8+213WLDWD
13RodezRodez1241717:23-613LWWLL
14NantesNantes1233614:18-412WDLLD
15Clermont FootClermont Foot1218311:15-411WDLDL
16SochauxSochaux122558:15-711LLLLD
17GrenobleGrenoble1232713:22-911WLLLL
18LavalLaval1223714:23-99LWLDL
#TeamMPGPts
1Saint EtienneSaint Etienne1225:1128
2NancyNancy1217:925
3MontpellierMontpellier1218:924
4ReimsReims1224:1521
5PAUPAU1216:1320
6DijonDijon1221:1918
7MetzMetz1220:1917
8RED Star FC 93RED Star FC 931214:1717
9AnnecyAnnecy1214:1816
10DunkerqueDunkerque1217:1715
11GuingampGuingamp1216:1814
12BoulogneBoulogne1210:813
13RodezRodez1217:2313
14NantesNantes1214:1812
15Clermont FootClermont Foot1211:1511
16SochauxSochaux128:1511
17GrenobleGrenoble1213:2211
18LavalLaval1214:239
PromotionRelegation

About the Montpellier vs Metz forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Montpellier and Metz in the Ligue 2 table

In the Ligue 2 table, Montpellier are 3rd and Metz 7th, 7 points apart. League goal record so far: Montpellier 18-9, Metz 20-19. The full standings are on the Ligue 2 Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Metz have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.