Nacional vs Estoril Prediction

Nacional
2-0
Finished
HT 0-0
Estoril
Estádio da Madeira, Funchal·Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa, Portugal 16/08/2026
NacionalNacional
2-0
Finished
EstorilEstoril

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
60%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 2.5 Goals
1.88
SignalSOLIDModel42%SurpriseMediumGap+10.3%
Nacional Rest
5 days
Estoril Rest
8 days

Nacional vs Estoril: result, form and history

Nacional beat Estoril 2-0 in the Primeira Liga on 16 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Estoril have had the better of this fixture, winning 3 of the 5 previous meetings, which averaged 2.2 goals a game. Referee Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa averages 4.59 cards a game, 0.92 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
38%2.75
X
28%3.30
2
34%2.50
Double Chance
1X
66%1.48
X2
62%1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.66
No
49%2.08
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.26 + 1.14 = 2.40
Over 1.5
69%1.25
Over 2.5
41%1.89
Over 3.5
20%3.20
Under 1.5
31%3.50
Under 2.5
59%1.88
Under 3.5
80%1.31
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.6 + 4.7 = 10.3
Over 8.5
64%1.35
Over 9.5
53%1.64
Over 10.5
43%2.05
Under 8.5
36%2.83
Under 9.5
47%2.14
Under 10.5
57%1.70
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.7 + 2.5 = 5.2
Over 3.5
76%-
Over 4.5
55%-
Under 3.5
24%-
Under 4.5
45%-

Match Events

11'Xeka
32'Xeka
32'Xeka
51'Matheus Dias
63'A. Lacximicant INT. Brito out
63'R. Guitane INF. Garcia out
66'M. Baeza INDeivison out
66'Matheus Dias INS. Gavriel out
68'Ze VitorAssist: Leo Santos
75'R. Sanchez INP. Carvalho out
75'F. Medrano ING. Costa out
77'Leo SantosAssist: Daniel Junior
79'F. Soares
81'Daniel Junior IND. I. de la Cruz out
82'I. Sierra
85'A. Tsoungui INJandro out
85'Ferro
88'Pablo Ruan INJ. Silva out

Lineups

Nacional
3-4-2-1Coach: Giao Joao
Estoril
4-2-3-1Coach: Vasco Matos
Avg rating7.17
Avg rating6.46
Renato Marin7.71R. Marin
Léo SantosC8.634L. Santos
Matheus Dias6.66M. Dias
Ze Vitor8.738Z. Vitor
Wesley Gasolina7.052W. Gasolina
Liziero7.028Liziero
Filipe Soares6.622F. Soares
Markus Jensen7.37M. Jensen
Miguel Baeza6.78M. Baeza
Daniel Júnior7.510D. Júnior
Pablo Messias Cardozo6.699P. Messias Cardozo
Joel Robles6.61J. Robles
Ricard Sánchez6.62R. Sánchez
Ferro7.04Ferro
Ismael Sierra Arnal6.515I. Sierra Arnal
Fernando Medrano6.73F. Medrano
Xeka5.28Xeka
Antef Tsoungui6.35A. Tsoungui
Rafik Guitane6.399R. Guitane
João CarvalhoC7.212J. Carvalho
André Lacximicant6.37A. Lacximicant
Yanis Begraoui6.214Y. Begraoui

Nacional Substitutes

11Stavros Gavriel66'for Matheus Dias7.2
88Deivison Souza Brito66'for M. Baeza6.6
2Daniel De la Cruz81'for Daniel Junior6.7
26Joel Silva88'for Pablo Ruan6.7
13João Gonçalves
50Kevyn
14Ivanildo Fernandes
33Francisco Gonçalves
55Pedro Silva
15Chiheb Labidi
23Mateus Jose Iseppe
30Martim Gustavo Watts

Estoril Substitutes

90Tiago Brito63'for A. Lacximicant6.2
98Fabrício Garcia63'for R. Guitane6.7
22Pedro Carvalho75'for R. Sanchez6.7
18Gonçalo Costa75'for F. Medrano6.2
6Jandro Orellana85'for A. Tsoungui6.7
23Diogo Dias
16Martin Turk
42Jordan Arnolin
19Tiago Parente
25Stelios Andreou
80Luis Gomes

Match Stats

NacionalEstoril
59%Ball Possession41%
7Corner Kicks4
2Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
20Total Shots9
3Shots on Goal5
9Shots off Goal3
10Shots Inside Box4
10Shots Outside Box5
8Blocked Shots1
13Fouls13
1Offsides0
5Goalkeeper Saves1
451Total Passes316
391Passes Accurate253
87%Pass Accuracy80%

Team Comparison

NacionalNacional
EstorilEstoril
1515Elo Rating 1512
0.80Attack 0.86
1.10Defense 1.10
27%Hit Rate 0%
11.0Shots per Game 18.1
3.9Shots on Target 6.2
5.3Corners per Game 5.2
1.1Cards per Game 2.9

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

NacionalNacional
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
EstorilEstoril
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

NacionalNacional0Wins · 0%
Draws240%
EstorilEstoril3Wins · 60%
2.2Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored3 of 5
40%3+ goals2 of 5

Previous meetings

Primeira Liga15/03/2026
NacionalEstoril
01
Primeira Liga26/10/2025
EstorilNacional
11
Primeira Liga15/02/2025
NacionalEstoril
22
Primeira Liga15/09/2024
EstorilNacional
10
Taça da Liga25/07/2021
NacionalEstoril
12

Recent Form

NacionalNacional
3W4D3L
10/08/2026
Santa ClaraNacional
22
D
23/07/2026
EstrelaNacional
20
L
22/07/2026
NacionalLeganes
00
D
19/07/2026
TondelaNacional
11
D
18/07/2026
NacionalLeixoes
33
D
16/05/2026
NacionalGuimaraes
20
W
11/05/2026
Santa ClaraNacional
20
L
02/05/2026
NacionalAVS
12
L
25/04/2026
TondelaNacional
02
W
18/04/2026
NacionalAlverca
10
W
EstorilEstoril
1W5D4L
07/08/2026
EstorilFamalicao
11
D
31/07/2026
CF Os BelenensesEstoril
11
D
25/07/2026
EstorilTorreense
00
D
22/07/2026
AlvercaEstoril
20
L
11/07/2026
EstorilAtlético CP
30
W
16/05/2026
EstorilBenfica
13
L
10/05/2026
AlvercaEstoril
11
D
03/05/2026
SC BragaEstoril
11
D
26/04/2026
EstorilFamalicao
01
L
20/04/2026
MoreirenseEstoril
10
L

Referee Profile

Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa128 matches

4.59Cards per match
4.34Yellow cards per match
0.26Red cards per match
28.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Bruno Jose Ribeiro Pires Costa4.59
Other referees5.51

4.59 cards a match, 0.92 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.51).

Cards come from 74 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Primeira Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FC PortoFC Porto990021:4+1727WWWWW
2BenficaBenfica971126:8+1822WWLWW
3Sporting CPSporting CP1063123:11+1221WLWDD
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara953113:6+718LWDWW
5AroucaArouca952212:7+517WWDLD
6Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu952213:11+217WWWWW
7GIL VicenteGIL Vicente94238:7+114LWWDL
8MoreirenseMoreirense1042413:17-414WWLDW
9AlvercaAlverca932413:13011LWWWL
10SC BragaSC Braga93249:11-211LLLDW
11FamalicaoFamalicao924314:11+310WLWDD
12EstrelaEstrela1024415:19-410LLLLD
13Vitória SCVitória SC922510:1008WLDLD
14MaritimoMaritimo92259:19-108LLDLL
15NacionalNacional921610:18-87WLLLL
16Rio AveRio Ave92168:21-137LWLDL
17Casa PiaCasa Pia102175:19-147LWLWL
18EstorilEstoril90275:15-102LLLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1FC PortoFC Porto921:427
2BenficaBenfica926:822
3Sporting CPSporting CP1023:1121
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara913:618
5AroucaArouca912:717
6Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu913:1117
7GIL VicenteGIL Vicente98:714
8MoreirenseMoreirense1013:1714
9AlvercaAlverca913:1311
10SC BragaSC Braga99:1111
11FamalicaoFamalicao914:1110
12EstrelaEstrela1015:1910
13Vitória SCVitória SC910:108
14MaritimoMaritimo99:198
15NacionalNacional910:187
16Rio AveRio Ave98:217
17Casa PiaCasa Pia105:197
18EstorilEstoril95:152
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Nacional vs Estoril forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Nacional and Estoril in the Primeira Liga table

In the Primeira Liga table, Nacional are 15th and Estoril 18th, 5 points apart. League goal record so far: Nacional 10-18, Estoril 5-15. The full standings are on the Primeira Liga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.