Famalicao vs Maritimo Prediction

Famalicao
1-2
Finished
HT 1-1
Maritimo
Estádio Municipal de Famalicão, Vila Nova de Famalicao·Miguel Nogueira, Portugal 16/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
58%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.75
SignalSOLIDModel57%SurpriseMediumGap+4.7%
Famalicao Rest
9 days
Maritimo Rest
8 days

Famalicao vs Maritimo: the result in context

Maritimo beat Famalicao 2-1 in the Primeira Liga on 16 Aug 2026. It was in line with recent form: Maritimo had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Famalicao.

Famalicao have had the better of this fixture, winning 4 of the 6 previous meetings, which averaged 2.2 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
58%1.75
X
26%3.50
2
16%4.85
Double Chance
1X
84%1.18
X2
43%2.05
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%1.99
No
57%1.75
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.59 + 0.83 = 2.42
Over 1.5
69%1.36
Over 2.5
41%2.15
Over 3.5
20%3.85
Under 1.5
31%3.00
Under 2.5
59%1.70
Under 3.5
80%1.24
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.2 + 3.3 = 9.6
Over 8.5
60%1.57
Over 9.5
49%1.97
Over 10.5
40%2.56
Under 8.5
40%2.21
Under 9.5
51%1.77
Under 10.5
60%1.43
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 2.3 = 4
Over 3.5
45%-
Over 4.5
28%-
Under 3.5
55%-
Under 4.5
72%-

Match Events

8'F. van BreemenAssist: O. Aranda
21'S. Bouzaidi
42'A. Butzke
46'P. Moreira INP. Santos out
46'O. Aranda INGil Dias out
46'Pedro Bondo INL. Meyer out
50'F. van Breemen
68'Igor Juliao
73'A. Butzke INS. Bamba out
73'M. Tejon INM. Boakye out
76'G. Koutsias INU. Abubakar out
80'S. Bouzaidi INT. Tavares out
84'Sorriso INR. Beney out
88'V. Danilovic ING. Szalai out
88'R. Andrade INI. Ayuma out
90+4'M. Boakye

Lineups

Famalicao
4-2-3-1Coach: Carlos Carvalhal
Maritimo
4-3-3Coach: Mitchell van der Gaag
Avg rating6.84
Avg rating6.66
Lazar Carević6.325L. Carević
Rodrigo Pinheiro6.717R. Pinheiro
Léo Realpe7.33L. Realpe
Finn van Breemen8.24F. van Breemen
Pedro Bondo6.628P. Bondo
Tom Van De LooiC6.96T. Van De Looi
Mathias De Amorim7.314M. De Amorim
Sorriso6.97Sorriso
Paulo Moreira6.619P. Moreira
Óscar Aranda6.911Ó. Aranda
Georgios Koutsias6.570G. Koutsias
Alfonso Pastor6.313A. Pastor
Igor Julião6.32I. Julião
Rafael Fernandes6.64R. Fernandes
Romain CorreiaC6.944R. Correia
Paulo Henrique6.723P. Henrique
Vladan Danilović6.718V. Danilović
Rodrigo Andrade6.66R. Andrade
Raphael Guzzo6.714R. Guzzo
Simo Bouzaidi7.211S. Bouzaidi
Adrián Butzke6.917A. Butzke
Martín Tejón7.010M. Tejón

Famalicao Substitutes

1Ivan Zlobin
5Leny Meyer46'for Pedro Bondo7.0
36Matheus Mattara
30Vojin Serafimović
2Gustavo García
23Gil Dias46'for O. Aranda6.2
10Pedro Santos46'for P. Moreira6.6
8Marcos Peña
21Tamás Szűcs
91Rudi Almeida
9Umar Abubakar76'for G. Koutsias6.6
18Romeo Beney84'for Sorriso

Maritimo Substitutes

1Gonçalo Tabuaço
30Francisco Vieites
22Gábor Szalai88'for V. Danilovic
16Francisco Silva
68Nelio Batista
66Israel Ayuma88'for R. Andrade
35Bryan Limbombe
15Tomás Tavares80'for S. Bouzaidi6.6
90Maurice Boakye73'for M. Tejon90+4'6.5
27Samuel Bamba73'for A. Butzke6.2

Match Stats

FamalicaoMaritimo
67%Ball Possession33%
5Corner Kicks1
1Yellow Cards2
14Total Shots9
4Shots on Goal4
4Shots off Goal4
8Shots Inside Box8
6Shots Outside Box1
6Blocked Shots1
11Fouls16
2Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves3
623Total Passes306
551Passes Accurate229
88%Pass Accuracy75%

Team Comparison

FamalicaoFamalicao
MaritimoMaritimo
1645Elo Rating 1563
1.46Attack 0.96
1.37Defense 0.45
19%Hit Rate 23%
11.1Shots per Game 9.1
3.7Shots on Target 2.7
5.2Corners per Game 3.8
2.8Cards per Game 2.1

Game State Tendencies

FamalicaoFamalicao
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1 vs 0.5 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
MaritimoMaritimo
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.8 vs 0.2 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 6 meetings, all competitions

FamalicaoFamalicao4Wins · 67%
Draws233%
MaritimoMaritimo0Wins · 0%
2.2Avg Goals
33%Both teams scored2 of 6
50%3+ goals3 of 6

Previous meetings

Primeira Liga22/04/2023
FamalicaoMaritimo
32
Primeira Liga06/11/2022
MaritimoFamalicao
00
Primeira Liga20/02/2022
MaritimoFamalicao
01
Primeira Liga18/09/2021
FamalicaoMaritimo
00
Primeira Liga21/03/2021
MaritimoFamalicao
04
Primeira Liga07/11/2020
FamalicaoMaritimo
21

Recent Form

FamalicaoFamalicao
4W5D1L
07/08/2026
EstorilFamalicao
11
D
31/07/2026
FamalicaoComo
23
L
25/07/2026
FamalicaoTondela
10
W
22/07/2026
FamalicaoArouca
00
D
18/07/2026
FamalicaoPenafiel
00
D
15/07/2026
FamalicaoLusitânia Lourosa
10
W
11/07/2026
FamalicaoFamalicão U23
50
W
16/05/2026
FamalicaoAlverca
10
W
11/05/2026
EstrelaFamalicao
00
D
02/05/2026
FamalicaoBenfica
22
D
MaritimoMaritimo
5W1D4L
08/08/2026
MaritimoCasa Pia
10
W
29/07/2026
MaritimoEstrela
11
D
22/07/2026
MaritimoCamacha
20
W
17/07/2026
MaritimoLeixoes
15
L
14/07/2026
MaritimoAVS
20
W
15/05/2026
MaritimoChaves
13
L
09/05/2026
PenafielMaritimo
10
L
01/05/2026
MaritimoLeixoes
32
W
26/04/2026
Benfica BMaritimo
12
W
18/04/2026
TorreenseMaritimo
10
L

Referee Profile

Miguel Nogueira159 matches

5.18Cards per match
4.88Yellow cards per match
0.30Red cards per match
27.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Miguel Nogueira5.18
Other referees5.44

5.18 cards a match, 0.26 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.44).

Cards come from 120 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Primeira Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FC PortoFC Porto990021:4+1727WWWWW
2BenficaBenfica971126:8+1822WWLWW
3Sporting CPSporting CP953121:11+1018LWDDW
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara953113:6+718LWDWW
5AroucaArouca952212:7+517WWDLD
6Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu952213:11+217WWWWW
7GIL VicenteGIL Vicente94238:7+114LWWDL
8AlvercaAlverca932413:13011LWWWL
9SC BragaSC Braga93249:11-211LLLDW
10MoreirenseMoreirense932411:16-511WLDWL
11FamalicaoFamalicao924314:11+310WLWDD
12EstrelaEstrela924314:17-310LLLDW
13Vitória SCVitória SC922510:1008WLDLD
14MaritimoMaritimo92259:19-108LLDLL
15NacionalNacional921610:18-87WLLLL
16Casa PiaCasa Pia92165:17-127WLWLD
17Rio AveRio Ave92168:21-137LWLDL
18EstorilEstoril90275:15-102LLLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1FC PortoFC Porto921:427
2BenficaBenfica926:822
3Sporting CPSporting CP921:1118
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara913:618
5AroucaArouca912:717
6Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu913:1117
7GIL VicenteGIL Vicente98:714
8AlvercaAlverca913:1311
9SC BragaSC Braga99:1111
10MoreirenseMoreirense911:1611
11FamalicaoFamalicao914:1110
12EstrelaEstrela914:1710
13Vitória SCVitória SC910:108
14MaritimoMaritimo99:198
15NacionalNacional910:187
16Casa PiaCasa Pia95:177
17Rio AveRio Ave98:217
18EstorilEstoril95:152
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Famalicao vs Maritimo forecast

The forecasts for this Primeira Liga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Famalicao and Maritimo in the Primeira Liga table

In the Primeira Liga table, Famalicao are 11th and Maritimo 14th, 2 points apart. League goal record so far: Famalicao 14-11, Maritimo 9-19. The full standings are on the Primeira Liga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.