Estoril vs Rio Ave Prediction

Estoril
0-2
Finished
HT 0-1
Rio Ave
Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota, Estoril·Carlos Macedo, Portugal 22/08/2026
EstorilEstoril
0-2
Finished
Rio AveRio Ave

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.6 / 10
Value Analysis
76%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.33
SignalHIGHModel46%SurpriseMediumGap+7.1%
Estoril Rest
6 days
Rio Ave Rest
6 days

Estoril vs Rio Ave: the result in context

Rio Ave beat Estoril 2-0 in the Primeira Liga on 22 Aug 2026. It was in line with recent form: Rio Ave had won 2 of their previous five, compared with none for Estoril.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.0 a game across 9 meetings, with both teams scoring in 6. Referee Carlos Macedo averages 4.51 cards a game, 1.00 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
48%2.05
X
24%3.44
2
28%3.60
Double Chance
1X
72%1.28
X2
53%1.76
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%1.67
No
45%2.06
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.51 + 1.08 = 2.59
Over 1.5
75%1.25
Over 2.5
48%1.84
Over 3.5
24%3.05
Under 1.5
25%3.70
Under 2.5
52%1.96
Under 3.5
76%1.33
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.8 + 4.3 = 10.1
Over 8.5
64%1.42
Over 9.5
53%1.73
Over 10.5
41%2.13
Under 8.5
36%2.57
Under 9.5
47%2.00
Under 10.5
59%1.65
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.5 + 2.2 = 3.7
Over 3.5
46%1.34
Over 4.5
23%1.84
Under 3.5
54%2.80
Under 4.5
77%1.88

Match Events

15'J. BlesaAssist: Diogo Bezerra
52'R. Galcik INA. Ntoi out
53'Goal Disallowed - offsideJ. Blesa
67'F. Medrano
68'T. Brito INF. Garcia out
69'R. Sanchez INP. Carvalho out
69'F. Medrano INT. Parente out
73'TambleAssist: J. Blesa
76'A. Tsoungui INJ. Arnolin out
76'R. Guitane INPeixinho out
76'N. Abbey INM. Vrousai out
80'J. Brabec INGustavo Mancha out
80'Tamble IND. Spikic out
86'A. Ntoi

Lineups

Estoril
4-2-3-1Coach: Vasco Matos
Rio Ave
4-2-3-1Coach: Sotiris Sylaidopoulos
Avg rating6.66
Avg rating7.06
Joel Robles6.51J. Robles
Ricard Sánchez6.22R. Sánchez
Ferro7.04Ferro
Ismael Sierra Arnal6.915I. Sierra Arnal
Fernando Medrano6.73F. Medrano
Tiago Brito6.290T. Brito
Antef Tsoungui6.95A. Tsoungui
Rafik Guitane6.999R. Guitane
João CarvalhoC6.612J. Carvalho
André Lacximicant6.97A. Lacximicant
Yanis Begraoui7.014Y. Begraoui
Ennio Van Der Gouw8.099E. Van Der Gouw
Georgios Liavas6.754G. Liavas
Francisco Petrasso6.923F. Petrasso
Jakub BrabecC7.714J. Brabec
Nelson Abbey7.56N. Abbey
Tamás Nikitscher6.744T. Nikitscher
Diogo Nascimento6.590D. Nascimento
Roland Galčík6.230R. Galčík
Jalen Blesa8.711J. Blesa
Diogo Bezerra6.57D. Bezerra
Tamblé Monteiro7.29T. Monteiro

Estoril Substitutes

23Diogo Dias
16Martin Turk
42Jordan Arnolin76'for A. Tsoungui6.7
22Pedro Carvalho69'for R. Sanchez6.7
19Tiago Parente69'for F. Medrano6.3
25Stelios Andreou
18Gonçalo Costa
80Luis Gomes
6Jandro Orellana
98Fabrício Garcia68'for T. Brito6.3
17Peixinho76'for R. Guitane6.7

Rio Ave Substitutes

5Andreas Ndoj52'replaced by R. Galcik86'6.7
22Kevin Chamorro
39Gustavo Mancha80'for J. Brabec
60Caike
13Julien Lomboto
70Antoine Wenck
25Rafael Lobato
79Miguel Patricio
17Marios Vrousai76'for N. Abbey6.5
67Samuel da Silva Alves
27Tobias Medina
77Dario Špikić80'for Tamble

Match Stats

EstorilRio Ave
55%Ball Possession45%
6Corner Kicks3
1Yellow Cards1
18Total Shots3
6Shots on Goal3
8Shots off Goal0
11Shots Inside Box3
7Shots Outside Box0
4Blocked Shots0
11Fouls14
0Offsides2
1Goalkeeper Saves6
430Total Passes356
352Passes Accurate275
82%Pass Accuracy77%

Team Comparison

EstorilEstoril
Rio AveRio Ave
1537Elo Rating 1573
0.69Attack 1.45
1.72Defense 1.29
0%Hit Rate 50%
14.6Shots per Game 8.5
6.2Shots on Target 4.9
5.4Corners per Game 4.6
3.0Cards per Game 2.7

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend67% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

EstorilEstoril
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Rio AveRio Ave
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 9 meetings, all competitions

EstorilEstoril4Wins · 45%
Draws333%
Rio AveRio Ave2Wins · 22%
3.0Avg Goals
67%Both teams scored6 of 9
67%3+ goals6 of 9

Previous meetings

Primeira Liga22/03/2026
EstorilRio Ave
12
Primeira Liga01/11/2025
Rio AveEstoril
04
Primeira Liga22/02/2025
EstorilRio Ave
21
Primeira Liga21/09/2024
Rio AveEstoril
22
Primeira Liga31/01/2024
Rio AveEstoril
11
Primeira Liga20/08/2023
EstorilRio Ave
20
Primeira Liga13/02/2023
Rio AveEstoril
20
Primeira Liga19/08/2022
EstorilRio Ave
22
Taça de Portugal12/01/2021
Rio AveEstoril
12

Recent Form

EstorilEstoril
1W5D4L
16/08/2026
NacionalEstoril
20
L
07/08/2026
EstorilFamalicao
11
D
31/07/2026
CF Os BelenensesEstoril
11
D
25/07/2026
EstorilTorreense
00
D
22/07/2026
AlvercaEstoril
20
L
11/07/2026
EstorilAtlético CP
30
W
16/05/2026
EstorilBenfica
13
L
10/05/2026
AlvercaEstoril
11
D
03/05/2026
SC BragaEstoril
11
D
26/04/2026
EstorilFamalicao
01
L
Rio AveRio Ave
3W3D4L
15/08/2026
Rio AveFC Porto
02
L
09/08/2026
GIL VicenteRio Ave
10
L
01/08/2026
Rio AveTondela
31
W
19/07/2026
Rio AveAl-Ahli Jeddah
22
D
15/07/2026
PortimonenseRio Ave
03
W
11/07/2026
Rio AveArouca
21
W
16/05/2026
Casa PiaRio Ave
11
D
11/05/2026
Rio AveSporting CP
14
L
03/05/2026
Rio AveGIL Vicente
00
D
25/04/2026
GuimaraesRio Ave
20
L

Referee Profile

Carlos Macedo127 matches

4.51Cards per match
4.33Yellow cards per match
0.18Red cards per match
29.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Carlos Macedo4.51
Other referees5.51

4.51 cards a match, 1.00 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.51).

Cards come from 78 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Primeira Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FC PortoFC Porto990021:4+1727WWWWW
2BenficaBenfica971126:8+1822WWLWW
3Sporting CPSporting CP953121:11+1018LWDDW
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara953113:6+718LWDWW
5AroucaArouca952212:7+517WWDLD
6Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu952213:11+217WWWWW
7GIL VicenteGIL Vicente94238:7+114LWWDL
8AlvercaAlverca932413:13011LWWWL
9SC BragaSC Braga93249:11-211LLLDW
10MoreirenseMoreirense932411:16-511WLDWL
11FamalicaoFamalicao924314:11+310WLWDD
12EstrelaEstrela924314:17-310LLLDW
13Vitória SCVitória SC922510:1008WLDLD
14MaritimoMaritimo92259:19-108LLDLL
15NacionalNacional921610:18-87WLLLL
16Casa PiaCasa Pia92165:17-127WLWLD
17Rio AveRio Ave92168:21-137LWLDL
18EstorilEstoril90275:15-102LLLLD
#TeamMPGPts
1FC PortoFC Porto921:427
2BenficaBenfica926:822
3Sporting CPSporting CP921:1118
4Santa ClaraSanta Clara913:618
5AroucaArouca912:717
6Academico ViseuAcademico Viseu913:1117
7GIL VicenteGIL Vicente98:714
8AlvercaAlverca913:1311
9SC BragaSC Braga99:1111
10MoreirenseMoreirense911:1611
11FamalicaoFamalicao914:1110
12EstrelaEstrela914:1710
13Vitória SCVitória SC910:108
14MaritimoMaritimo99:198
15NacionalNacional910:187
16Casa PiaCasa Pia95:177
17Rio AveRio Ave98:217
18EstorilEstoril95:152
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Estoril vs Rio Ave forecast

The forecasts for this Primeira Liga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Estoril and Rio Ave in the Primeira Liga table

Rio Ave and Estoril are close in the Primeira Liga table, 17th and 18th, with 5 points between them. League goal record so far: Estoril 5-15, Rio Ave 8-21. The full standings are on the Primeira Liga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.