Newcastle vs Liverpool Prediction

Newcastle
2-2
Finished
HT 1-0
Liverpool
St James' Park, Newcastle·Stuart Attwell, England 23/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
72%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams to Score
1.44
SignalGOODModel44%SurpriseMediumGap+2.7%
Value Analysis
72%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams to Score
1.44
SignalGOODModel38%SurpriseHighGap+8.0%
Newcastle Rest
7 days
Liverpool Rest
7 days

Newcastle vs Liverpool: result, form and history

Newcastle and Liverpool drew 2-2 in the Premier League on 23 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Liverpool have had the better of this fixture, winning 8 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 3.6 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
32%3.95
X
25%3.83
2
43%1.88
Double Chance
1X
58%1.91
X2
68%1.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes
72%1.44
No
28%2.57
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.78 + 1.44 = 3.22
Over 1.5
83%1.15
Over 2.5
60%1.50
Over 3.5
36%2.30
Under 1.5
17%5.05
Under 2.5
40%2.50
Under 3.5
64%1.64
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

5'A. ElangaAssist: W. Osula
25'Y. WissaHolding
30'M. KerkezTripping
30'J. FrimpongHolding
34'L. MileyRoughing
55'C. GakpoAssist: R. Gravenberch
56'W. Osula INJ. Willock out
56'S. Steur INJ. Ramsey out
57'J. WillockAssist: Y. Wissa
63'F. Wirtz INA. Mac Allister out
63'R. Ngumoha INV. Munoz out
65'J. RamseyTripping
70'J. Jacquet INR. Araujo out
76'L. Miley INA. Bamba out
76'A. Elanga INJ. Murphy out
78'R. Gravenberch INL. Koumas out
79'J. MurphyTripping
90'V. van DijkTripping
90'D. Szoboszlai(Penalty)
90+3'L. HornicekUnsportsmanlike conduct
90+5'Y. Wissa INF. Schar out

Lineups

Newcastle
4-2-3-1Coach: Matthias Jaissle
Liverpool
4-2-3-1Coach: Andoni Iraola
Avg rating6.75
Avg rating6.73
L. Hornicek7.321L. Hornicek
A. Dedic6.237A. Dedic
M. ThiawC6.312M. Thiaw
S. Botman6.94S. Botman
L. Hall6.93L. Hall
S. Steur6.514S. Steur
L. Miley7.367L. Miley
A. Elanga7.619A. Elanga
Y. Wissa6.99Y. Wissa
H. Barnes6.611H. Barnes
W. Osula6.610W. Osula
Alisson6.31Alisson
J. Frimpong5.930J. Frimpong
J. Jacquet6.65J. Jacquet
V. van DijkC6.64V. van Dijk
M. Kerkez6.06M. Kerkez
D. Szoboszlai7.28D. Szoboszlai
R. Gravenberch7.038R. Gravenberch
R. Ngumoha6.273R. Ngumoha
F. Wirtz7.07F. Wirtz
C. Gakpo7.218C. Gakpo
A. Isak6.99A. Isak

Newcastle Substitutes

24E. Jaouen
51L. Shahar
5F. Schar90+5'for Y. Wissa
28J. Willock56'for W. Osula57'7.3
41J. Ramsey56'for S. Steur65'6.3
8A. Bamba76'for L. Miley6.3
17B. Toure
23J. Murphy76'for A. Elanga79'6.2
27N. Woltemade

Liverpool Substitutes

25G. Mamardashvili
21K. Tsimikas
33R. Araujo70'for J. Jacquet7.2
10A. Mac Allister63'for F. Wirtz6.9
3W. Endo
53J. McConnell
42T. Nyoni
67L. Koumas78'for R. Gravenberch6.7
23V. Munoz63'for R. Ngumoha7.2

Match Stats

NewcastleLiverpool
39%Ball Possession61%
2Corner Kicks6
5Yellow Cards3
13Total Shots27
4Shots on Goal7
5Shots off Goal4
6Shots Inside Box16
7Shots Outside Box11
4Blocked Shots16
16Fouls15
2Offsides1
5Goalkeeper Saves3
296Total Passes445
224Passes Accurate375
76%Pass Accuracy84%

Team Comparison

NewcastleNewcastle
LiverpoolLiverpool
1795Elo Rating 1938
0.93Attack 2.85
0.96Defense 0.88
34%Hit Rate 83%
15.7Shots per Game 19.7
4.3Shots on Target 6.2
6.2Corners per Game 7.3
2.5Cards per Game 1.8

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.22 goals
📈BTTS Trend70% in H2H
💎Value Analysis Identified
📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

NewcastleNewcastle
  • No tendency data available
LiverpoolLiverpool
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.7 vs 1.1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

NewcastleNewcastle1Wins · 10%
Draws110%
LiverpoolLiverpool8Wins · 80%
3.6Avg Goals
70%Both teams scored7 of 10
70%3+ goals7 of 10

Previous meetings

Premier League31/01/2026
LiverpoolNewcastle
41
Premier League25/08/2025
NewcastleLiverpool
23
League Cup16/03/2025
LiverpoolNewcastle
12
Premier League26/02/2025
LiverpoolNewcastle
20
Premier League04/12/2024
NewcastleLiverpool
33
Premier League01/01/2024
LiverpoolNewcastle
42
Premier League27/08/2023
NewcastleLiverpool
12
Premier League18/02/2023
NewcastleLiverpool
02
Premier League31/08/2022
LiverpoolNewcastle
21
Premier League30/04/2022
NewcastleLiverpool
01

Recent Form

NewcastleNewcastle
3W2D5L
16/08/2026
NewcastleStrasbourg
2131
L
15/08/2026
NewcastleBayer Leverkusen
12
L
12/08/2026
NewcastleEverton
13
L
08/08/2026
ValenciaNewcastle
12
W
29/07/2026
Bristol CityNewcastle
41
L
25/07/2026
GatesheadNewcastle
11
D
18/07/2026
NewcastleDarlington 1883
30
W
24/05/2026
FulhamNewcastle
20
L
17/05/2026
NewcastleWest Ham
31
W
10/05/2026
Nottingham ForestNewcastle
11
D
LiverpoolLiverpool
3W3D4L
16/08/2026
LiverpoolComo
00
D
09/08/2026
LiverpoolMonaco
23
L
02/08/2026
LiverpoolLeeds
24
L
30/07/2026
LiverpoolWrexham
10
W
26/07/2026
LiverpoolSunderland
42
W
24/05/2026
LiverpoolBrentford
11
D
15/05/2026
Aston VillaLiverpool
42
L
09/05/2026
LiverpoolChelsea
11
D
03/05/2026
Manchester UnitedLiverpool
32
L
25/04/2026
LiverpoolCrystal Palace
31
W

Referee Profile

Stuart Attwell181 matches

4.16Cards per match
4.03Yellow cards per match
0.13Red cards per match
21.0Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Stuart Attwell4.16
Other referees3.75

4.16 cards a match, 0.41 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.75).

Cards come from 173 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Premier League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Manchester CityManchester City870120:9+1121LWWWW
2ArsenalArsenal870113:5+821WWWLW
3BrightonBrighton851223:7+1616LWWWW
4LiverpoolLiverpool843111:8+315WWLWD
5ChelseaChelsea841317:15+213LWWLD
6BrentfordBrentford825114:9+511DLDWD
7LeedsLeeds82519:6+311DDLDW
8NewcastleNewcastle832312:14-211WLLWL
9Aston VillaAston Villa83239:12-311WWDWL
10Hull CityHull City82429:8+110DLDLD
11EvertonEverton82428:9-110LLDWD
12IpswichIpswich831412:16-410DLWLW
13BournemouthBournemouth823312:13-19WWLLD
14TottenhamTottenham82338:10-29WWDLD
15FulhamFulham82248:10-28WWLDD
16Manchester UnitedManchester United814310:13-37LDDDL
17Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace82159:19-107LLWDL
18Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest81346:10-46DLLLW
19CoventryCoventry82066:15-96LLWWL
20SunderlandSunderland81256:14-85DLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Manchester CityManchester City820:921
2ArsenalArsenal813:521
3BrightonBrighton823:716
4LiverpoolLiverpool811:815
5ChelseaChelsea817:1513
6BrentfordBrentford814:911
7LeedsLeeds89:611
8NewcastleNewcastle812:1411
9Aston VillaAston Villa89:1211
10Hull CityHull City89:810
11EvertonEverton88:910
12IpswichIpswich812:1610
13BournemouthBournemouth812:139
14TottenhamTottenham88:109
15FulhamFulham88:108
16Manchester UnitedManchester United810:137
17Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace89:197
18Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest86:106
19CoventryCoventry86:156
20SunderlandSunderland86:145
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Newcastle vs Liverpool forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Newcastle and Liverpool in the Premier League table

In the Premier League table, Liverpool are 4th and Newcastle 8th, 4 points apart. League goal record so far: Newcastle 12-14, Liverpool 11-8. The full standings are on the Premier League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.