Penarol vs Progreso Prediction

Primera DivisiónUruguay Uruguay · Clausura - 10
Penarol
1-1
Finished
HT 0-1
Progreso
Estadio Centenario, Montevideo·Mathias De Armas 10/10/2026
PenarolPenarol
1-1
Finished
ProgresoProgreso

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
70%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.36
SignalGOODModel71%SurpriseMediumGap-3.4%
Penarol Rest
5 days
Progreso Rest
7 days

Penarol vs Progreso: result, form and history

Penarol and Progreso drew 1-1 in the Primera División on 10 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Penarol have had the better of this fixture, winning 5 of the 5 previous meetings, which averaged 2.6 goals a game. Referee Mathias De Armas averages 4.73 cards a game, 1.23 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
67%1.36
X
20%4.45
2
13%7.40
Double Chance
1X
87%1.06
X2
33%2.79
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%2.10
No
54%1.65
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.56 + 0.73 = 3.29
Over 1.5
77%1.25
Over 2.5
56%1.84
Over 3.5
34%3.20
Under 1.5
23%3.50
Under 2.5
44%1.90
Under 3.5
66%1.33
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

5'Marco Antonio Saravia INhernan carroso out
26'nahuel lopez
46'Roberto Fernández INAbel Hernández out
46'nahuel herrera INIgnacio alegre out
58'Cristian Jaime
61'leandro umpierrez INeduardo darias out
70'Ayrton Cougo INGastón Silva out
70'Maximiliano Juambeltz INMatteo copelotti out
71'Thiago Espinosa INLucas Hernández out
76'eduardo darias
78'Cristian Jaime INFranco González out
83'Agustín Ocampo INSantino Bruschi out
83'Facundo De Leon INAgustin Codagnone out
90+2'Abel Hernández

Lineups

Penarol
3-4-2-1Coach: D. Aguirre
Progreso
4-2-3-1Coach: Tabaré Silva
W. Aguerre29W. Aguerre
L. Ferreira6L. Ferreira
G. Pezzella2G. Pezzella
N. Herrera34N. Herrera
J. Cabrera7J. Cabrera
E. Remedi5E. Remedi
N. Fernández8N. Fernández
Thiago Nahuel Espinosa Dovat26T. Nahuel Espinosa Dovat
C. Jaime11C. Jaime
L. Umpiérrez32L. Umpiérrez
M. Arezo19M. Arezo
R. Bacchia1R. Bacchia
E. Álvarez24E. Álvarez
M. Martin15M. Martin
M. Saravia6M. Saravia
A. Cougo40A. Cougo
A. Pinheiro5A. Pinheiro
R. Cristóbal25R. Cristóbal
F. de León17F. de León
N. López10N. López
A. Ocampo7A. Ocampo
M. Juambeltz8M. Juambeltz

Penarol Substitutes

28I. Alegre46'for nahuel herrera
9F. Batista
1S. Britos
13E. Darias61'for leandro umpierrez76'
80F. González78'for Cristian Jaime
99A. Hernández46'for Roberto Fernández90+2'
21J. Trindade
3M. Lemos
27L. Hernández71'for Thiago Espinosa
33J. Rodríguez

Progreso Substitutes

2S. Cardozo
13H. Carroso5'for Marco Antonio Saravia
30Agustin Codagnone83'for Facundo De Leon
23M. Copelotti70'for Maximiliano Juambeltz
12L. Fernández
26Juan Oliva
18G. Silva
20gary silva
27G. Silva70'for Ayrton Cougo
21S. Bruschi83'for Agustín Ocampo

Match Stats

PenarolProgreso
61%Ball Possession39%
4Corner Kicks2
2Yellow Cards0
22Total Shots10
6Shots on Goal6
16Shots off Goal4
0Blocked Shots0
0Free Kicks0

Team Comparison

PenarolPenarol
ProgresoProgreso
1641Elo Rating 1482
0.31Attack 1.54
2.10Defense 2.17
14%Hit Rate 64%
10.7Shots per Game 7.8
3.0Shots on Target 3.9
4.1Corners per Game 3.5
4.0Cards per Game 2.2

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+159 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.29 goals
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

PenarolPenarol
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.3 vs 0 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
ProgresoProgreso
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

PenarolPenarol5Wins · 100%
Draws00%
ProgresoProgreso0Wins · 0%
2.6Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored2 of 5
40%3+ goals2 of 5

Previous meetings

Primera División - Apertura05/04/2026
ProgresoPenarol
02
Primera División - Apertura02/02/2025
ProgresoPenarol
13
Primera División - Apertura22/06/2024
ProgresoPenarol
02
Primera División - Apertura24/05/2024
PenarolProgreso
31
Primera División - Apertura15/08/2021
PenarolProgreso
10

Recent Form

PenarolPenarol
6W3D1L
05/10/2026
Racing MontevideoPenarol
01
W
01/10/2026
Atletico TorquePenarol
11
D
26/09/2026
PenarolBoston River
21
W
24/09/2026
DanubioPenarol
11
D
19/09/2026
CerroPenarol
12
W
14/09/2026
PenarolAlbion FC
31
W
05/09/2026
DanubioPenarol
04
W
03/09/2026
AtenasPenarol
22
D
30/08/2026
PenarolClub Nacional
01
L
27/08/2026
PenarolAtletico Torque
10
W
ProgresoProgreso
4W0D6L
03/10/2026
Liverpool MontevideoProgreso
32
L26/09/2026
ProgresoRacing Montevideo
21
W19/09/2026
Boston RiverProgreso
12
W
16/09/2026
ProgresoClub Nacional
01
L
13/09/2026
ProgresoCerro
13
L
07/09/2026
Albion FCProgreso
01
W
03/09/2026
Albion FCProgreso
21
L
29/08/2026
ProgresoDanubio
10
W
26/08/2026
ProgresoCA River Plate
02
L
23/08/2026
Club NacionalProgreso
10
L

Referee Profile

Mathias De Armas119 matches

4.73Cards per match
4.54Yellow cards per match
0.19Red cards per match
23.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Mathias De Armas4.73
Other referees5.96

4.73 cards a match, 1.23 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.96).

Cards come from 26 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Primera División 2026

Primera: Tabla Anual

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol35199752:28+2465LDLWL
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado34188854:32+2262DWWLW
3Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque341861057:40+1760DLDLL
4Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo351612745:31+1460WDWWW
5Club NacionalClub Nacional341841251:41+1058WLLWW
6Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo341511845:31+1456LWLDD
7WanderersWanderers351491242:44-251WLLLW
8Albion FCAlbion FC341371447:44+346WWDDW
9JuventudJuventud3410111337:41-441DWLLL
10Central EspanolCentral Espanol351181635:48-1341WLDWW
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo359101633:41-837LLDDW
12Boston RiverBoston River341071733:45-1237WLWWL
13CerroCerro351071829:53-2437LDDWL
14Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting348121433:43-1036DWLDD
15ProgresoProgreso341051931:47-1635WLLDD
16DanubioDanubio346141428:43-1532DDDLD
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol3552:2865
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado3454:3262
3Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque3457:4060
4Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo3545:3160
5Club NacionalClub Nacional3451:4158
6Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo3445:3156
7WanderersWanderers3542:4451
8Albion FCAlbion FC3447:4446
9JuventudJuventud3437:4141
10Central EspanolCentral Espanol3535:4841
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo3533:4137
12Boston RiverBoston River3433:4537
13CerroCerro3529:5337
14Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting3433:4336
15ProgresoProgreso3431:4735
16DanubioDanubio3428:4332

Primera: Promedios

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol72431514118:62+56144LDLWL
2Club NacionalClub Nacional71421415127:74+53137WLLWW
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado34188854:32+2262DWWLW
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo7133221696:68+28121LWLDD
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo7230231984:69+15113WDWWW
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque71311624111:91+20109DLDLL
7JuventudJuventud7128182582:80+2102DWLLL
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting7126192675:81-697DWLDD
9Albion FCAlbion FC341371447:44+346WWDDW
10Boston RiverBoston River7124202783:84-192WLWWL
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo7221232874:82-886LLDDW
12Central EspanolCentral Espanol351181635:48-1341WLDWW
13CerroCerro7222183262:95-3383LDDWL
14WanderersWanderers7220223067:91-2482WLLLW
15DanubioDanubio7116272869:84-1575DDDLD
16ProgresoProgreso7120143769:107-3874WLLDD
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol72118:62144
2Club NacionalClub Nacional71127:74137
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado3454:3262
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo7196:68121
5Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo7284:69113
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque71111:91109
7JuventudJuventud7182:80102
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting7175:8197
9Albion FCAlbion FC3447:4446
10Boston RiverBoston River7183:8492
11Cerro LargoCerro Largo7274:8286
12Central EspanolCentral Espanol3535:4841
13CerroCerro7262:9583
14WanderersWanderers7267:9182
15DanubioDanubio7169:8475
16ProgresoProgreso7169:10774

Primera: Torneo Intermedio — Group 1

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1PenarolPenarol751112:3+916LDLWL
2Cerro LargoCerro Largo73227:5+211LLDDW
3Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo72414:3+110WDWWW
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo72325:509LWLDD
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol72324:409WLDWW
6CerroCerro73046:10-49LDDWL
7Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting71336:9-36DWLDD
8Boston RiverBoston River71245:10-55WLWWL
#TeamMPGPts
1PenarolPenarol712:316
2Cerro LargoCerro Largo77:511
3Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo74:310
4Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo75:59
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol74:49
6CerroCerro76:109
7Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting76:96
8Boston RiverBoston River75:105

Primera: Torneo Intermedio — Group 2

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1WanderersWanderers743012:4+815WLLLW
2Club NacionalClub Nacional74128:8013WLLWW
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado733112:6+612DWWLW
4Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque740311:11012DLDLL
5JuventudJuventud72238:11-38DWLLL
6Albion FCAlbion FC71336:8-26WWDDW
7ProgresoProgreso72056:11-56WLLDD
8DanubioDanubio70435:9-44DDDLD
#TeamMPGPts
1WanderersWanderers712:415
2Club NacionalClub Nacional78:813
3Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado712:612
4Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque711:1112
5JuventudJuventud78:118
6Albion FCAlbion FC76:86
7ProgresoProgreso76:116
8DanubioDanubio75:94

Primera: Apertura

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1594223:14+931WDWWW
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1592424:16+829DWWLW
3Albion FCAlbion FC1584326:16+1028WWDDW
4PenarolPenarol1583423:16+727LDLWL
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol1573523:22+124WLDWW
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1565422:16+623DLDLL
7Club NacionalClub Nacional1571726:21+522WLLWW
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1556413:11+221DWLDD
9Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1555520:18+220LWLDD
10WanderersWanderers1562716:21-520WLLLW
11DanubioDanubio1546517:21-418DDDLD
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo1552816:19-317LLDDW
13Boston RiverBoston River1552814:20-617WLWWL
14JuventudJuventud1543817:22-515DWLLL
15ProgresoProgreso1524912:23-1110WLLDD
16CerroCerro152498:24-1610LDDWL
#TeamMPGPts
1Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1523:1431
2Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1524:1629
3Albion FCAlbion FC1526:1628
4PenarolPenarol1523:1627
5Central EspanolCentral Espanol1523:2224
6Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1522:1623
7Club NacionalClub Nacional1526:2122
8Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1513:1121
9Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1520:1820
10WanderersWanderers1516:2120
11DanubioDanubio1517:2118
12Cerro LargoCerro Largo1516:1917
13Boston RiverBoston River1514:2017
14JuventudJuventud1517:2215
15ProgresoProgreso1512:2310
16CerroCerro158:2410

Primera: Clausura

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1283120:8+1227LWLDD
2Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1281324:13+1125DLDLL
3Club NacionalClub Nacional1272317:12+523WLLWW
4PenarolPenarol1365217:9+822LDLWL
5Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1263318:10+821DWWLW
6Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1354418:14+419WDWWW
7ProgresoProgreso1261513:13019WLLDD
8JuventudJuventud1246212:8+418DWLLL
9CerroCerro1353515:19-418LDDWL
10WanderersWanderers1344514:19-516WLLLW
11Boston RiverBoston River1243514:15-115WLWWL
12Albion FCAlbion FC1240815:20-512WWDDW
13DanubioDanubio122466:13-710DDDLD
14Cerro LargoCerro Largo1316610:17-79LLDDW
15Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1223714:23-99DWLDD
16Central EspanolCentral Espanol132298:22-148WLDWW
#TeamMPGPts
1Liverpool MontevideoLiverpool Montevideo1220:827
2Atletico TorqueAtletico Torque1224:1325
3Club NacionalClub Nacional1217:1223
4PenarolPenarol1317:922
5Deportivo MaldonadoDeportivo Maldonado1218:1021
6Racing MontevideoRacing Montevideo1318:1419
7ProgresoProgreso1213:1319
8JuventudJuventud1212:818
9CerroCerro1315:1918
10WanderersWanderers1314:1916
11Boston RiverBoston River1214:1515
12Albion FCAlbion FC1215:2012
13DanubioDanubio126:1310
14Cerro LargoCerro Largo1310:179
15Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting1214:239
16Central EspanolCentral Espanol138:228
PromotionRelegation

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About the Penarol vs Progreso forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Penarol and Progreso in the Primera División table

The table shows a wide gap: Penarol are 1st in the Primera División, while Progreso sit 15th, 30 points behind. League goal record so far: Penarol 52-28, Progreso 31-47. The full standings are on the Primera División Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.