Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander Prediction
Spain · Regular Season - 4
Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Madrid 05/09/2026
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
76%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.36
SignalHIGHModel47%SurpriseMediumGap+2.6%
Value Analysis
50%Trust
Home Corners
Home Corners Under 5.5
2.12
SignalNEUTRALModel47%SurpriseMediumGap+6.6%
Rayo Vallecano Rest
4 days
Racing Santander Rest
7 days
Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander: the result in context
Rayo Vallecano beat Racing Santander 3-2 in the La Liga on 5 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
150%2.25
X28%3.42
222%3.20
Double Chance
1X78%1.36
X250%1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes54%1.63
No46%2.17
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.65 + 1.03 = 2.68
Over 1.572%1.25
Over 2.548%1.83
Over 3.526%3.00
Under 1.528%3.77
Under 2.552%2.00
Under 3.574%1.38
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.8 + 4.2 = 10
Over 8.565%1.40
Over 9.556%1.68
Over 10.547%2.10
Under 8.535%2.67
Under 9.544%2.08
Under 10.553%1.67
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.1 = 4.2
Over 3.560%1.25
Over 4.541%1.57
Under 3.540%3.70
Under 4.559%2.36
Match Events
2'Óscar ValentínFoul
4'Sergio Canales
17'Andrei RațiuAssist: Sergio Camello
25'Yassir ZabiriFoul
28'Pablo García
35'Iñigo VicenteFoul
39'Sergio CamelloDissent
43'Sergio CamelloAssist: Unai López
47'Sergio CamelloAssist: Unai López
55'Manu Hernando INPablo Ramon Parra out
55'Matteo Prati INAndré Almeida out
55'Facundo González INJeanuël Belocian out
57'Sergio Camello INAlexandre Zurawski out
57'Óscar Valentín INGnangoro Bouare out
65'Jorge De Frutos INFrancisco Pérez Martínez out
66'Florian LejeuneFoul
74'Álvaro García INGeorgiy Tsitaishvili out
75'Adrià Pedrosa INIvan Balliu out
85'Francisco Pérez MartínezViolent conduct
89'Jorge De FrutosAbusive Language
90'Pablo García INJuan Carlos Arana out
90'Alvaro Mantilla INAarón Martin Caricol out
Lineups
Rayo VallecanoRacing Santander
4-2-3-1Coach: José Alberto LópezAvg ratingAvg rating
1D. Cárdenas
2A. Rațiu
24F. Lejeune
6P. Ciss
17A. Pedrosa
8U. López
23Ó. Valentín
4P. Díaz
19J. de Frutos
10S. Camello
18Á. García
13J. Agirrezabala
2Á. Mantilla
4M. Hernando
16F. González
17J. Salinas
23I. Martín
18M. Prati
15P. García
20S. Canales
10I. Vicente
21M. ZabiriRayo Vallecano Substitutes
9Alemão57'for Sergio Camello
25E. Audero
20I. Balliu75'for Adrià Pedrosa
36G. Bouare57'for Óscar Valentín
26Marco de las Sías
22Pelayo Fernández
11R. Nteka
21Fran Pérez65'for Jorge De Frutos85'
15Mujaid Sadick
14G. Tsitaishvili74'for Álvaro García
37Rayane Belid
Racing Santander Substitutes
24J. Belocian55'for Facundo González
14M. Gueye
7G. Guliashvili
3Aarón Martín90'for Alvaro Mantilla
22Pedro Felipe
38H. Perez
5Pablo Ramón55'for Manu Hernando
6Íñigo Sainz-Maza
12Asier Villalibre
8André Almeida55'for Matteo Prati
9Juan Carlos Arana90'for Pablo García
1S. Eriksson
Match Stats
Rayo VallecanoRacing Santander 49%Ball Possession51%
9Corner Kicks6
3Yellow Cards2
2Red Cards0
16Total Shots9
10Shots on Goal4
3Shots off Goal3
9Shots Inside Box4
7Shots Outside Box5
3Blocked Shots2
15Fouls12
1Offsides2
2Goalkeeper Saves6
386Total Passes412
317Passes Accurate334
12Free Kicks15
Team Comparison
Rayo VallecanoRacing Santander1755Elo Rating 1678
0.90Attack 1.21
1.04Defense 0.07
17%Hit Rate 27%
18.6Shots per Game 14.7
4.2Shots on Target 6.0
4.6Corners per Game 5.4
2.9Cards per Game 3.2
AI Insights
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Rayo Vallecano- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.6 vs 0.3 in second half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Racing Santander- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.3 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Recent Form
Rayo Vallecano3W1D6L
31/08/2026
BarcelonaRayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
Alaves
SevillaRayo Vallecano
BarcelonaRayo Vallecano52
L20/08/2026Rayo VallecanoAlaves11
D15/08/2026SevillaRayo Vallecano21
L08/08/2026
IpswichRayo Vallecano
IpswichRayo Vallecano30
L01/08/2026
CharleroiRayo Vallecano
CharleroiRayo Vallecano23
W26/07/2026
FeyenoordRayo Vallecano
FeyenoordRayo Vallecano21
L17/07/2026
Heart Of MidlothianRayo Vallecano
Heart Of MidlothianRayo Vallecano21
L27/05/2026
Crystal PalaceRayo Vallecano
Crystal PalaceRayo Vallecano10
L23/05/2026AlavesRayo Vallecano
AlavesRayo Vallecano12
W17/05/2026Rayo Vallecano
Villarreal
Rayo VallecanoVillarreal20
WRacing Santander3W2D5L
28/08/2026Racing Santander
Elche
GetafeRacing SantanderRacing SantanderVillarreal
Racing SantanderElche32
W23/08/2026GetafeRacing Santander10
L16/08/2026Racing SantanderVillarreal22
D07/08/2026Racing SantanderAlaves
Racing SantanderAlaves6171
L07/08/2026Racing Santander
Sporting Gijon
Racing SantanderSporting Gijon41
W01/08/2026
WolvesRacing Santander
WolvesRacing Santander30
L29/07/2026Racing Santander
Athletic Club
Racing SantanderAthletic Club03
L24/07/2026
OsasunaRacing Santander
OsasunaRacing Santander20
L18/07/2026
Real SociedadRacing Santander
Real SociedadRacing Santander11
D31/05/2026Racing Santander
Cadiz
Racing SantanderCadiz41
WLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 40:11 | +29 | 27 | LWWWW |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20:8 | +12 | 25 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 25:10 | +15 | 24 | WWWLW |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 16:14 | +2 | 20 | DLWDW |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19:18 | +1 | 19 | WWWWL |
| 6 | Sevilla | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16:16 | 0 | 17 | WLDLW |
| 7 | Alaves | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14:11 | +3 | 12 | DLLDL |
| 8 | Athletic Club | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12:9 | +3 | 12 | LDDDD |
| 9 |  Celta Vigo | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 10:7 | +3 | 12 | DWDWD |
| 10 | Villarreal | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15:14 | +1 | 12 | WDLWW |
| 11 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13:13 | 0 | 11 | LDLDL |
| 12 | Osasuna | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10:20 | -10 | 11 | LWLDL |
| 13 | Racing Santander | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15:26 | -11 | 11 | WLDLL |
| 14 |  Levante | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 16:19 | -3 | 10 | LWDDL |
| 15 | Elche | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14:17 | -3 | 10 | WDDWL |
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12:20 | -8 | 9 | DDDWL |
| 17 | Getafe | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5:15 | -10 | 9 | LDLWL |
| 18 |  Espanyol | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12:14 | -2 | 8 | LLDLL |
| 19 |  Valencia | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7:17 | -10 | 6 | LDDLW |
| 20 |  Malaga | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 7:19 | -12 | 5 | DLDLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 10 | 40:11 | 27 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 10 | 20:8 | 25 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 10 | 25:10 | 24 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 10 | 16:14 | 20 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 10 | 19:18 | 19 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 10 | 16:16 | 17 |
| 7 | Alaves | 10 | 14:11 | 12 |
| 8 | Athletic Club | 9 | 12:9 | 12 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 10 | 10:7 | 12 |
| 10 | Villarreal | 10 | 15:14 | 12 |
| 11 | Deportivo La Coruna | 10 | 13:13 | 11 |
| 12 | Osasuna | 10 | 10:20 | 11 |
| 13 | Racing Santander | 10 | 15:26 | 11 |
| 14 | Levante | 10 | 16:19 | 10 |
| 15 | Elche | 10 | 14:17 | 10 |
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | 12:20 | 9 |
| 17 | Getafe | 10 | 5:15 | 9 |
| 18 | Espanyol | 10 | 12:14 | 8 |
| 19 | Valencia | 10 | 7:17 | 6 |
| 20 | Malaga | 10 | 7:19 | 5 |
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About the Rayo Vallecano vs Racing Santander forecast
The forecasts for this La Liga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Rayo Vallecano and Racing Santander in the La Liga table
In the La Liga table, Racing Santander are 13th and Rayo Vallecano 16th, 2 points apart. League goal record so far: Rayo Vallecano 12-20, Racing Santander 15-26. The full standings are on the La Liga Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Rayo Vallecano and Racing Santander have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.