San Marino vs Finland Prediction

San Marino
0-7
Finished
HT 0-3
Finland
San Marino Stadium, Serravalle·Nathan Verboomen 26/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
67%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.44
SignalSOLIDModel75%SurpriseMediumGap-2.6%
San Marino Rest
108 days
Finland Rest
112 days

San Marino vs Finland: the result in context

Finland beat San Marino 7-0 in the UEFA Nations League on 26 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Finland tend to win more corners, 6.4 a game to 2.2 for San Marino.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
3%30.00
X
8%10.13
2
89%1.08
Double Chance
1X
11%7.60
X2
97%1.01
Both Teams to Score
Yes
31%3.30
No
69%1.30
Goals
Projected Goals: 0.39 + 3.28 = 3.67
Over 1.5
82%1.13
Over 2.5
64%1.44
Over 3.5
46%2.15
Under 1.5
18%5.03
Under 2.5
36%2.58
Under 3.5
54%1.68
Corners
Projected Corners: 1.8 + 6.8 = 8.7
Over 8.5
56%1.58
Over 9.5
48%1.97
Over 10.5
36%2.50
Under 8.5
44%2.18
Under 9.5
52%1.73
Under 10.5
64%1.42
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 1.3 = 3.6
Over 3.5
49%1.70
Over 4.5
30%-
Under 3.5
51%2.02
Under 4.5
70%-

Match Events

5'Joel Pohjanpalo
14'adrian svanbackAssist: Leo Walta
33'Benjamin KällmanAssist: adrian svanback
43'Adam MarkhievFoul
45'Adam Markhiev INSanteri Väänänen out
45'Ville Koski INTony Miettinen out
45'Topi Keskinen INAdam Stahl out
50'Leo Walta
51'Alessandro GolinucciSerious foul
55'Leo WaltaAssist: Juho Lähteenmäki
59'Nicholas Giacopetti INSamuel·Pancotti out
59'Benjamin Källman INRobin Lod out
59'Lorenzo·Capicchioni INMarcello Mularoni out
70'S. Zannoni INS. Giocondi out
70'F. Fabbri INBalda Enea Della out
70'Leo Walta INOnni Valakari out
79'Joel PohjanpaloAssist: adrian svanback
79'Michele Cevoli INgiacomo benvenuti out
86'C. MeloniFoul
88'Joel Pohjanpalo(Penalty)

Lineups

San Marino
4-1-2-1-2Coach: R. Cevoli
Finland
4-3-3Coach: J. Friis
Avg rating5.67
Avg rating7.77
11E. Colombo
44F. Fabbri
M. Cevoli5.75M. Cevoli
M. Pasolini6.015M. Pasolini
A. Tosi5.012A. Tosi
L. Capicchioni5.98L. Capicchioni
1616C. Meloni
A. Golinucci5.017A. Golinucci
1010S. Zannoni
N. Giacopetti6.411N. Giacopetti
N. Nanni6.19N. Nanni
V. Sinisalo6.612V. Sinisalo
T. Keskinen7.718T. Keskinen
V. Koski7.721V. Koski
S. Miettinen7.415S. Miettinen
J. Lähteenmäki8.213J. Lähteenmäki
K. Kairinen7.114K. Kairinen
A. Marhiev7.211A. Marhiev
L. Walta9.710L. Walta
A. Svanbäck9.422A. Svanbäck
J. Pohjanpalo9.820J. Pohjanpalo
B. Källman7.819B. Källman

San Marino Substitutes

13M. Zavoli
6D. Rossi
19S. Pancotti59'for Nicholas Giacopetti6.2
22M. Mularoni59'for Lorenzo·Capicchioni5.7
2G. Benvenuti79'for Michele Cevoli5.5
23M. De Angelis
21L. Lazzari
7G. Capicchioni
14Fausto Marino Salicioni Ortiz
20P. Marinucci
3S. Giocondi70'replaced by S. Zannoni5.4
18Balda Enea Della70'replaced by F. Fabbri

Finland Substitutes

9S. Väänänen45'for Adam Markhiev7.2
2L. Väisänen
3A. Ståhl45'for Topi Keskinen6.9
4T. Miettinen45'for Ville Koski7.3
17R. Mahuta
8R. Lod59'for Benjamin Källman7.4
6G. Kamara
5O. Jukkola
1L. Hrádecký
23L. Bergström
7O. Valakari70'for Leo Walta7.0
16A. Suhonen

Match Stats

San MarinoFinland
25%Ball Possession75%
0Corner Kicks4
1Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
1Total Shots23
0Shots on Goal11
1Shots off Goal7
0Shots Inside Box18
1Shots Outside Box5
0Blocked Shots5
14Fouls10
2Offsides2
4Goalkeeper Saves0
257Total Passes783
169Passes Accurate716
9Free Kicks14

Team Comparison

San MarinoSan Marino
FinlandFinland
1059Elo Rating 1458
0.41Attack 1.62
0.00Defense 2.36
0%Hit Rate 39%
6.2Shots per Game 14.1
2.1Shots on Target 4.6
2.2Corners per Game 6.4
3.3Cards per Game 1.5

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.67 goals
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

San MarinoSan Marino
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
FinlandFinland
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.7 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

San MarinoSan Marino0Wins · 0%
Draws00%
FinlandFinland2Wins · 100%
4.5Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored1 of 2
100%3+ goals2 of 2

Previous meetings

Euro Championship - Qualification20/11/2023
San MarinoFinland
12
Euro Championship - Qualification19/06/2023
FinlandSan Marino
60

Recent Form

San MarinoSan Marino
0W0D10L
09/06/2026
AzerbaijanSan Marino
21
L
05/06/2026
San MarinoBangladesh
12
L
18/11/2025
RomaniaSan Marino
71
L
12/10/2025
San MarinoCyprus
04
L
09/10/2025
AustriaSan Marino
100
L
06/09/2025
San MarinoBosnia & Herzegovina
06
L
10/06/2025
San MarinoAustria
04
L
07/06/2025
Bosnia & HerzegovinaSan Marino
10
L
24/03/2025
San MarinoRomania
15
L
21/03/2025
CyprusSan Marino
20
L
FinlandFinland
3W1D6L
05/06/2026
HungaryFinland
21
L
31/05/2026
GermanyFinland
40
L
14/11/2025
FinlandMalta
01
L
12/10/2025
NetherlandsFinland
40
L
09/10/2025
FinlandLithuania
21
W
07/09/2025
PolandFinland
31
L
10/06/2025
FinlandPoland
21
W
07/06/2025
FinlandNetherlands
02
L
24/03/2025
LithuaniaFinland
22
D
21/03/2025
MaltaFinland
01
W

Referee Profile

Nathan Verboomen170 matches

4.56Cards per match
4.26Yellow cards per match
0.30Red cards per match
22.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Nathan Verboomen4.56
Other referees4.13

4.56 cards a match, 0.43 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.13).

Cards come from 143 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1AlbaniaAlbania43018:3+59WLWW
2BelarusBelarus42115:2+37WWDL
3FinlandFinland42119:2+77LWDW
4San MarinoSan Marino40041:16-150LLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1AlbaniaAlbania48:39
2BelarusBelarus45:27
3FinlandFinland49:27
4San MarinoSan Marino41:160
Promotion

About the San Marino vs Finland forecast

This is a UEFA Nations League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

San Marino and Finland in the UEFA Nations League table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Finland are 3rd in the UEFA Nations League, 7 points ahead of San Marino in 4th. League goal record so far: San Marino 1-16, Finland 9-2. The full standings are on the UEFA Nations League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

San Marino and Finland have met only 2 times recently, averaging 4.5 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.