England vs Spain Prediction

England
2-3
Finished
HT 2-1
Spain
Wembley Stadium, London·Davide Massa 26/09/2026
EnglandEngland
2-3
Finished
SpainSpain

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.0 / 10
Value Analysis
72%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.52
SignalGOODModel72%SurpriseMediumGap+6.3%
England Rest
69 days
Spain Rest
68 days

England vs Spain: result, form and history

Spain beat England 3-2 in the UEFA Nations League on 26 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 3 previous meetings averaged 3.7 goals, and both sides scored in 3 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
26%3.60
X
28%3.50
2
46%2.07
Double Chance
1X
54%1.73
X2
74%1.30
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.57
No
47%2.25
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.19 + 1.22 = 2.41
Over 1.5
77%1.20
Over 2.5
54%1.73
Over 3.5
36%2.62
Under 1.5
23%4.10
Under 2.5
46%2.15
Under 3.5
64%1.43
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.1 + 4.4 = 8.5
Over 8.5
56%1.65
Over 9.5
48%2.10
Over 10.5
36%2.79
Under 8.5
44%2.10
Under 9.5
52%1.67
Under 10.5
64%1.39
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 1.5 = 3.3
Over 3.5
42%1.71
Over 4.5
24%2.26
Under 3.5
58%2.05
Under 4.5
76%1.59

Match Events

2'Lamine Yamal
36'Anthony GordonAssist: Jude Bellingham
40'Harry KaneAssist: Nico O'Reilly
52'Penalty confirmedJude Bellingham
54'Harry Kane(Penalty missed)
55'Ferrán Torres INMikel Oyarzabal out
55'Nico Williams INAlejandro Baena Rodríguez out
55'Harry Kane
60'Alejandro Baena RodríguezAssist: Daniel Olmo Carvajal
67'Nico O'ReillyFoul
69'Marc GuehiFoul
70'Anthony Gordon INMorgan Rogers out
70'Myles Lewis-Skelly INJames Garner out
70'Fabián Ruiz INPedri out
74'Mikel OyarzabalAssist: Alejandro Baena Rodríguez
81'Jude BellinghamFoul
82'Daniel Olmo Carvajal INMikel Merino out
83'Harry Kane INDominic Calvert-Lewin out
83'Bukayo Saka INMorgan Gibbs-White out
89'Marc Guehi INJarrad Branthwaite out

Lineups

England
4-2-3-1Coach: T. Tuchel
Spain
4-2-3-1Coach: Luis de la Fuente
Avg rating6.34
Avg rating6.86
J. Trafford5.513J. Trafford
J. Quansah5.922J. Quansah
E. Konsa6.35E. Konsa
M. Guéhi6.16M. Guéhi
N. O'Reilly6.13N. O'Reilly
E. Anderson6.68E. Anderson
M. Lewis-Skelly6.416M. Lewis-Skelly
B. Saka6.27B. Saka
J. Bellingham7.710J. Bellingham
A. Gordon7.511A. Gordon
H. Kane7.49H. Kane
Unai Simón6.523U. Simón
Marc Pubill6.612M. Pubill
Pau Cubarsí Paredes6.55P. Cubarsí Paredes
Aymeric Laporte6.914A. Laporte
Marc Cucurella6.722M. Cucurella
Rodri7.016Rodri
Fabián Ruiz6.18F. Ruiz
Lamine Yamal8.219L. Yamal
Dani Olmo7.710D. Olmo
Nico Williams6.017N. Williams
Ferran Torres6.37F. Torres

England Substitutes

2T. Alexander-Arnold
21E. Eze
18J. Garner70'for Myles Lewis-Skelly5.7
20M. Gibbs-White83'for Bukayo Saka6.0
14L. Hall
1J. Pickford
17M. Rogers70'for Anthony Gordon5.8
4A. Scott
23J. Steele
19D. Calvert-Lewin83'for Harry Kane6.3
15J. Branthwaite89'for Marc Guehi5.9
12T. Chalobah

Spain Substitutes

15Álex Baena55'for Nico Williams60'8.3
20Pedri70'for Fabián Ruiz6.6
3Álex Grimaldo
2D. Huijsen
9Fermín
13Josep Martínez
6Mikel Merino82'for Daniel Olmo Carvajal6.0
21Mikel Oyarzabal55'for Ferrán Torres74'7.5
11Yeremy Pino
1David Raya
18Martín Zubimendi

Match Stats

EnglandSpain
47%Ball Possession53%
6Corner Kicks3
3Yellow Cards0
13Total Shots15
5Shots on Goal5
6Shots off Goal5
7Shots Inside Box8
6Shots Outside Box7
2Blocked Shots5
11Fouls16
1Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves3
441Total Passes512
402Passes Accurate457
15Free Kicks9

Team Comparison

EnglandEngland
SpainSpain
1902Elo Rating 1983
3.98Attack 2.50
1.94Defense 1.98
83%Hit Rate 86%
18.1Shots per Game 14.5
6.8Shots on Target 6.7
5.7Corners per Game 5.7
1.1Cards per Game 1.0

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend100% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

EnglandEngland
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (2.4 vs 1.6 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
SpainSpain
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.5 vs 1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 3 meetings, all competitions

EnglandEngland1Wins · 33%
Draws00%
SpainSpain2Wins · 67%
3.7Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored3 of 3
100%3+ goals3 of 3

Previous meetings

Euro Championship14/07/2024
SpainEngland
21
UEFA Nations League15/10/2018
SpainEngland
23
UEFA Nations League08/09/2018
EnglandSpain
12

Recent Form

SpainSpain
8W2D0L
19/07/2026
SpainArgentina
1000
W
14/07/2026
FranceSpain
02
W
10/07/2026
SpainBelgium
21
W
06/07/2026
PortugalSpain
01
W
02/07/2026
SpainAustria
30
W
27/06/2026
UruguaySpain
01
W
21/06/2026
SpainSaudi Arabia
40
W
15/06/2026
SpainCape Verde Islands
00
D
09/06/2026
PeruSpain
13
W
04/06/2026
SpainIraq
11
D

Referee Profile

Davide Massa222 matches

4.77Cards per match
4.56Yellow cards per match
0.21Red cards per match
25.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Davide Massa4.77
Other referees4.42

4.77 cards a match, 0.35 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.42).

Cards come from 212 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1SpainSpain440012:5+712WWWW
2EnglandEngland430114:3+119WWWL
3CroatiaCroatia41034:14-103LLLW
4CzechiaCzechia40042:10-80LLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1SpainSpain412:512
2EnglandEngland414:39
3CroatiaCroatia44:143
4CzechiaCzechia42:100

About the England vs Spain forecast

This is a UEFA Nations League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

England and Spain in the UEFA Nations League table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Spain are 1st in the UEFA Nations League, 3 points ahead of England in 2nd. League goal record so far: England 14-3, Spain 12-5. The full standings are on the UEFA Nations League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

England have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.