France vs England Prediction

France
4-6
Finished
HT 0-4
England
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Garden, Miami·Jesús Valenzuela, Venezuela 18/07/2026
FranceFrance
4-6
Finished
EnglandEngland

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
10.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
86%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.25
SignalSTRONGModel45%SurpriseMediumGap+6.0%
France Rest
4 days
England Rest
3 days

France vs England: result, form and history

England beat France 6-4 in the World Cup on 18 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee Jesús Valenzuela averages 4.19 cards a game, 0.66 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
42%1.87
X
44%4.00
2
14%3.75
Double Chance
1X
86%1.25
X2
58%1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.43
No
47%2.70
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.58 + 1.06 = 2.64
Over 1.5
73%1.12
Over 2.5
47%1.44
Over 3.5
27%2.12
Under 1.5
27%5.50
Under 2.5
53%2.73
Under 3.5
73%1.73
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.9 + 3.9 = 8.8
Over 8.5
54%1.73
Over 9.5
46%2.19
Over 10.5
33%2.80
Under 8.5
46%2.02
Under 9.5
54%1.60
Under 10.5
67%1.35
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 1.7 = 3.6
Over 3.5
48%3.10
Over 4.5
29%5.80
Under 3.5
52%1.30
Under 4.5
71%1.13

Match Events

3'D. Rice
18'E. KonsaAssist: D. Rice
37'B. SakaAssist: M. Rashford
45+1'B. SakaAssist: E. Eze
46'R. Cherki INO. Dembele out
46'D. Doue INB. Barcola out
46'T. Hernandez INL. Digne out
46'I. Konate IND. Upamecano out
46'M. Rashford INO. Watkins out
48'K. MbappeAssist: M. Olise
54'B. BarcolaAssist: K. Mbappe
66'K. MbappeAssist: M. Olise
79'I. Toney INE. Anderson out
79'E. Eze INJ. Bellingham out
83'J. Quansah INR. James out
87'B. Saka(Penalty)
90+1'M. Gusto INJ. Kounde out
90+3'M. Guehi INT. Chalobah out
90+6'O. DembeleAssist: D. Upamecano
90+8'J. Bellingham

Lineups

France
4-2-3-1Coach: Didier Deschamps
England
4-1-4-1Coach: Thomas Tuchel
Avg rating6.76
Avg rating7.17
Mike Maignan5.916M. Maignan
Malo Gusto5.32M. Gusto
Ibrahima Konaté5.315I. Konaté
Maxence Lacroix7.526M. Lacroix
Theo Hernández5.919T. Hernández
Warren Zaïre-Emery6.718W. Zaïre-Emery
Adrien Rabiot6.314A. Rabiot
Michael Olise7.011M. Olise
Rayan Cherki6.524R. Cherki
Désiré Doué5.920D. Doué
Kylian MbappéC9.910K. Mbappé
Dean Henderson7.013D. Henderson
Jarell Quansah6.226J. Quansah
Ezri Konsa7.32E. Konsa
Marc Guéhi7.26M. Guéhi
Djed Spence6.925D. Spence
Declan RiceC9.34D. Rice
Bukayo Saka9.37B. Saka
Morgan Rogers6.717M. Rogers
Eberechi Eze7.321E. Eze
Marcus Rashford6.911M. Rashford
Ivan Toney6.922I. Toney

France Substitutes

4Dayot Upamecano46'for I. Konate6.5
3Lucas Digne46'for T. Hernandez6.3
7Ousmane Dembélé46'for R. Cherki90+6'8.5
12Bradley Barcola46'for D. Doue54'7.9
23Robin Risser
1Brice Samba
5Jules Koundé90+1'for M. Gusto
21Lucas Hernández
17William Saliba
8Aurélien Tchouaméni
25Maghnes Akliouche
6Manu Koné
13N'Golo Kanté
22Jean-Philippe Mateta
9Marcus Thuram

England Substitutes

19Ollie Watkins46'for M. Rashford6.2
23James Trafford
1Jordan Pickford
15Dan Burn
5John Stones
24Reece James83'for J. Quansah6.7
12Trevoh Chalobah90+3'for M. Guehi
3Nico O'Reilly
8Elliot Anderson79'for I. Toney6.3
10Jude Bellingham79'for E. Eze90+8'7.3
14Jordan Henderson
18Anthony Gordon
9Harry Kane
20Noni Madueke

Match Stats

FranceEngland
46%Ball Possession54%
3Corner Kicks4
19Total Shots19
9Shots on Goal11
6Shots off Goal2
12Shots Inside Box16
7Shots Outside Box3
4Blocked Shots6
14Fouls8
3Offsides3
4Goalkeeper Saves5
445Total Passes515
405Passes Accurate467
91%Pass Accuracy91%

Team Comparison

FranceFrance
EnglandEngland
1927Elo Rating 1902
2.23Attack 3.98
1.66Defense 1.94
63%Hit Rate 83%
18.5Shots per Game 18.1
7.3Shots on Target 6.8
5.9Corners per Game 5.7
1.2Cards per Game 1.1

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend
💎Value Analysis Identified
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

FranceFrance
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2.2 vs 0 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
EnglandEngland
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (2.4 vs 1.6 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 2 meetings, all competitions

FranceFrance1Wins · 50%
Draws150%
EnglandEngland0Wins · 0%
2.5Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored2 of 2
50%3+ goals1 of 2

Previous meetings

World Cup10/12/2022
EnglandFrance
12
Euro Championship11/06/2012
FranceEngland
11

Recent Form

FranceFrance
8W0D2L
14/07/2026
FranceSpain
02
L
09/07/2026
FranceMorocco
20
W
04/07/2026
ParaguayFrance
01
W
30/06/2026
FranceSweden
30
W
26/06/2026
NorwayFrance
14
W
22/06/2026
FranceIraq
30
W
16/06/2026
FranceSenegal
31
W
08/06/2026
FranceNorthern Ireland
31
W
04/06/2026
FranceIvory Coast
12
L
16/11/2025
AzerbaijanFrance
13
W

Referee Profile

Jesús Valenzuela43 matches

4.19Cards per match
4.02Yellow cards per match
0.17Red cards per match
25.6Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Jesús Valenzuela4.19
Other referees4.85

4.19 cards a match, 0.66 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.85).

Cards come from 42 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Third Place Play-off

League Table

World Cup 2026

Group I

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FranceFrance330010:2+89WWW
2NorwayNorway32018:7+16LWW
3SenegalSenegal31028:6+23WLL
4IraqIraq30031:12-110LLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FranceFrance310:29
2NorwayNorway38:76
3SenegalSenegal38:63
4IraqIraq31:120

Group L

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1EnglandEngland32106:2+47WDW
2CroatiaCroatia32015:506WWL
3GhanaGhana31112:204LDW
4PanamaPanama30030:4-40LLL
#TeamMPGPts
1EnglandEngland36:27
2CroatiaCroatia35:56
3GhanaGhana32:24
4PanamaPanama30:40

About the France vs England forecast

As a knockout tie in the World Cup, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About World Cup

More World Cup fixtures and forecasts are on the World Cup Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 10.0 out of 10 by our context model. England have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. France and England have met only 2 times recently, averaging 2.5 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.