France vs Senegal Prediction

World CupWorld World · Group Stage - 1
Cup
France
3-1
Finished
HT 0-0
Senegal
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford·Alireza Faghani, Australia 16/06/2026
FranceFrance
3-1
Finished
SenegalSenegal

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.0 / 10
Value Analysis
75%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.42
SignalHIGHModel78%SurpriseMediumGap+8.7%
France Rest
7 days
Senegal Rest
6 days

France vs Senegal: result, form and history

France beat Senegal 3-1 in the World Cup on 16 Jun 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
63%1.46
X
20%4.45
2
17%7.00
Double Chance
1X
83%1.10
X2
37%2.70
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.87
No
47%1.87
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.42 + 1.14 = 2.56
Over 1.5
73%1.22
Over 2.5
47%1.75
Over 3.5
25%2.83
Under 1.5
27%3.97
Under 2.5
53%2.10
Under 3.5
75%1.42
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.6 + 3.6 = 9.2
Over 8.5
52%1.49
Over 9.5
47%1.85
Over 10.5
34%2.35
Under 8.5
48%2.45
Under 9.5
53%1.89
Under 10.5
66%1.53
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2 = 3.8
Over 3.5
59%1.89
Over 4.5
35%2.76
Under 3.5
41%1.83
Under 4.5
65%1.39

Match Events

66'K. MbappeAssist: M. Olise
75'I. Sarr INI. Mbaye out
76'L. Camara INH. Diarra out
80'O. Dembele INB. Barcola out
82'B. BarcolaAssist: A. Rabiot
83'P. Gueye INI. Ndiaye out
83'N. Jackson INB. Dieng out
87'D. Doue INR. Cherki out
88'I. Gueye INP. Ciss out
90+5'I. MbayeAssist: I. Ndiaye
90+6'K. Mbappe

Lineups

France
4-2-3-1Coach: Didier Deschamps
Senegal
4-2-3-1Coach: Bouna Thiaw Pape
Avg rating7.06
Avg rating6.49
Mike Maignan6.216M. Maignan
Jules Koundé6.35J. Koundé
Dayot Upamecano7.64D. Upamecano
William Saliba6.317W. Saliba
Theo Hernández6.519T. Hernández
Aurélien Tchouaméni7.38A. Tchouaméni
Adrien Rabiot7.514A. Rabiot
Michael Olise7.911M. Olise
Ousmane Dembélé7.07O. Dembélé
Désiré Doué6.720D. Doué
Kylian MbappéC8.310K. Mbappé
Edouard Mendy6.716E. Mendy
Krépin Diatta6.915K. Diatta
Kalidou KoulibalyC6.23K. Koulibaly
Moussa Niakhaté6.519M. Niakhaté
El Hadji Malick Diouf6.225E. Hadji Malick Diouf
Idrissa Gana Gueye6.65I. Gana Gueye
Pape Gueye6.926P. Gueye
Ismaïla Sarr6.318I. Sarr
Lamine Camara6.28L. Camara
Sadio Mané6.310S. Mané
Nicolas Jackson5.911N. Jackson

France Substitutes

1Brice Samba
23Robin Risser
26Maxence Lacroix
21Lucas Hernández
3Lucas Digne
15Ibrahima Konaté
2Malo Gusto
6Manu Koné
13N'Golo Kanté
24Rayan Cherki87'for D. Doue6.3
18Warren Zaïre-Emery
25Maghnes Akliouche
9Marcus Thuram
22Jean-Philippe Mateta
12Bradley Barcola80'for O. Dembele82'7.9

Senegal Substitutes

1Yehvann Diouf
23Mory Diaw
14Ismail Jakobs
24Antoine Mendy
2Mamadou Sarr
4Abdoulaye Seck
17Pape Matar Sarr
6Pathé Ismaël Ciss88'for I. Gueye6.7
13Iliman Ndiaye83'for P. Gueye6.7
21Habib Diarra76'for L. Camara6.2
22Bara Sapoko Ndiaye
12Cherif Ndiaye
7Assane Diao
20Ibrahim Mbaye75'for I. Sarr90+5'7.3
9Ahmadou Bamba Dieng83'for N. Jackson6.3

Match Stats

FranceSenegal
53%Ball Possession47%
6Corner Kicks4
11Total Shots6
8Shots on Goal2
1Shots off Goal3
7Shots Inside Box4
4Shots Outside Box2
2Blocked Shots1
5Fouls9
1Offsides3
2Goalkeeper Saves5
575Total Passes502
505Passes Accurate430
88%Pass Accuracy86%

Team Comparison

FranceFrance
SenegalSenegal
1927Elo Rating 1773
2.23Attack 2.17
1.66Defense 1.62
63%Hit Rate 46%
18.5Shots per Game 13.8
7.3Shots on Target 5.0
5.9Corners per Game 4.3
1.2Cards per Game 2.4

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+153 Elo
📈BTTS Trend
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

FranceFrance
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2.2 vs 0 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
SenegalSenegal
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.5 vs 0.7 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Recent Form

FranceFrance
7W1D2L
08/06/2026
FranceNorthern Ireland
31
W
04/06/2026
FranceIvory Coast
12
L
16/11/2025
AzerbaijanFrance
13
W
13/11/2025
FranceUkraine
40
W
13/10/2025
IcelandFrance
22
D
10/10/2025
FranceAzerbaijan
30
W
09/09/2025
FranceIceland
21
W
05/09/2025
UkraineFrance
02
W
08/06/2025
GermanyFrance
02
W
05/06/2025
SpainFrance
54
L
SenegalSenegal
6W2D2L
10/06/2026
Saudi ArabiaSenegal
00
D
31/05/2026
USASenegal
32
L
18/01/2026
SenegalMorocco
0030
L
14/01/2026
SenegalEgypt
10
W
09/01/2026
MaliSenegal
01
W
03/01/2026
SenegalSudan
31
W
30/12/2025
BeninSenegal
03
W
27/12/2025
SenegalCongo DR
11
D
23/12/2025
SenegalBotswana
30
W
14/10/2025
SenegalMauritania
40
W

Referee Profile

Alireza Faghani201 matches

4.07Cards per match
3.94Yellow cards per match
0.13Red cards per match
22.4Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Alireza Faghani4.06
Other referees3.96

4.06 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.96).

Cards come from 172 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

World Cup 2026

Group I

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FranceFrance330010:2+89WWW
2NorwayNorway32018:7+16LWW
3SenegalSenegal31028:6+23WLL
4IraqIraq30031:12-110LLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FranceFrance310:29
2NorwayNorway38:76
3SenegalSenegal38:63
4IraqIraq31:120

Group Stage

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Congo DRCongo DR31114:3+14WLD
2SwedenSweden31117:704DLW
3GhanaGhana31112:204LDW
4EcuadorEcuador31112:204WDL
5Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina31115:6-14WLD
6AlgeriaAlgeria31115:7-24DWL
7ParaguayParaguay31112:4-24DWL
8SenegalSenegal31028:6+23WLL
9IranIran30303:303DDD
10South KoreaSouth Korea31022:3-13LLW
11ScotlandScotland31021:4-33LLW
12UruguayUruguay30213:4-12LDD
#TeamMPGPts
1Congo DRCongo DR34:34
2SwedenSweden37:74
3GhanaGhana32:24
4EcuadorEcuador32:24
5Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina35:64
6AlgeriaAlgeria35:74
7ParaguayParaguay32:44
8SenegalSenegal38:63
9IranIran33:33
10South KoreaSouth Korea32:33
11ScotlandScotland31:43
12UruguayUruguay33:42

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About the France vs Senegal forecast

This is a World Cup cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

France and Senegal in the World Cup table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: France are 1st in the World Cup, 6 points ahead of Senegal in 3rd. League goal record so far: France 10-2, Senegal 8-6. The full standings are on the World Cup Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.0 out of 10 by our context model. Senegal have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. France and Senegal have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.