Spain vs Argentina Prediction

Spain
1-0
After Extra Time
HT 0-0AET 1-0
Argentina
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford·Slavko Vinčić, Slovenia 19/07/2026
SpainSpain
1-0
After Extra Time
ArgentinaArgentina

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
10.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
79%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.30
SignalHIGHModel52%SurpriseMediumGap+2.0%
Value Analysis
80%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.30
SignalSTRONGModel47%SurpriseMediumGap+7.0%
Spain Rest
5 days
Argentina Rest
4 days

Spain vs Argentina: the result in context

Spain beat Argentina 1-0 after extra time in the World Cup on 19 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
51%2.33
X
28%3.00
2
21%3.50
Double Chance
1X
79%1.30
X2
49%1.60
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.87
No
47%1.87
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.56 + 0.94 = 2.50
Over 1.5
73%1.40
Over 2.5
44%2.30
Over 3.5
25%4.05
Under 1.5
27%2.90
Under 2.5
56%1.62
Under 3.5
75%1.22
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.7 + 3.1 = 8.8
Over 8.5
55%2.10
Over 9.5
46%2.88
Over 10.5
33%3.80
Under 8.5
45%1.65
Under 9.5
54%1.32
Under 10.5
67%1.19
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.6 + 1.7 = 3.3
Over 3.5
41%1.88
Over 4.5
23%2.62
Under 3.5
59%1.82
Under 4.5
77%1.45

Match Events

41'Lisandro MartínezFoul
44'Lisandro Martínez INNicolás Otamendi out
45'Nicolás Iván Gonzalez INLeandro Paredes out
52'Leandro ParedesArgument
58'Gonzalo Montiel INNahuel Molina out
62'Mikel Oyarzabal INFerrán Torres out
62'Fabián Ruiz INPedri out
70'Cristian Romero INFacundo Medina out
70'Rodrigo De Paul INGiuliano Simeone Baldini out
75'Alejandro Baena Rodríguez INNico Williams out
75'Daniel Olmo Carvajal INMikel Merino out
82'Enzo FernándezDissent
90+2'Cristian RomeroDissent

Extra Time1 - 0

99'Rodrigo Hernandez Cascante INMartín Zubimendi out
99'Aymeric Laporte INEric García out
102'Julián Álvarez INMarcos Senesi out
104'Lionel Sebastián ScaloniDissent
106'Ferrán TorresAssist: Nico Williams
111'Alexis Mac AllisterFoul

Lineups

Spain
4-1-2-3Coach: Luis de la Fuente
Argentina
4-4-2Coach: L. Scaloni
Avg rating7.04
Avg rating6.63
Unai Simón6.623U. Simón
Pedro Porro7.012P. Porro
Pau Cubarsí Paredes8.022P. Cubarsí Paredes
Aymeric Laporte7.014A. Laporte
Marc Cucurella6.824M. Cucurella
Rodri8.216Rodri
Dani Olmo6.710D. Olmo
Fabián Ruiz7.18F. Ruiz
Lamine Yamal7.319L. Yamal
Mikel Oyarzabal6.321M. Oyarzabal
Álex Baena6.415Á. Baena
E. Martínez9.823E. Martínez
G. Montiel6.64G. Montiel
C. Romero6.813C. Romero
Lisandro Martínez6.26L. Martínez
N. Tagliafico6.93N. Tagliafico
R. De Paul6.47R. De Paul
E. Fernández6.224E. Fernández
A. Mac Allister6.520A. Mac Allister
N. González6.515N. González
L. Messi6.810L. Messi
J. Álvarez6.49J. Álvarez

Spain Substitutes

1David Raya
5Marcos Llorente
3Álex Grimaldo
6Mikel Merino75'for Daniel Olmo Carvajal7.0
25Víctor Muñoz
26Borja Iglesias
7Ferran Torres62'for Mikel Oyarzabal106'7.7
4Eric García99'for Aymeric Laporte6.5
18Martín Zubimendi99'for Rodrigo Hernandez Cascante6.6
20Pedri62'for Fabián Ruiz7.2
11Yeremy Pino
13Joan García
17Nico Williams75'for Alejandro Baena Rodríguez7.3
9Gavi
2Marc Pubill

Argentina Substitutes

17G. Simeone70'for Rodrigo De Paul6.7
8V. Barco
21J. López
16T. Almada
25F. Medina70'for Cristian Romero6.6
26N. Molina58'for Gonzalo Montiel6.0
2M. Senesi102'for Julián Álvarez6.1
22Lautaro Martínez
14E. Palacios
11G. Lo Celso
1J. Musso
5L. Paredes45'for Nicolás Iván Gonzalez52'6.3
12G. Rulli
19N. Otamendi44'for Lisandro Martínez6.1
18N. Paz

Match Stats

SpainArgentina
65%Ball Possession35%
9Corner Kicks1
0Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards1
15Total Shots0
10Shots on Goal0
3Shots off Goal0
6Shots Inside Box0
9Shots Outside Box0
2Blocked Shots0
21Fouls25
2Offsides1
0Goalkeeper Saves10
647Total Passes337
583Passes Accurate268
89%Pass Accuracy77%

Team Comparison

SpainSpain
ArgentinaArgentina
1983Elo Rating 1913
2.50Attack 1.57
1.98Defense 2.10
86%Hit Rate 54%
14.5Shots per Game 10.0
6.7Shots on Target 3.3
5.7Corners per Game 4.5
1.0Cards per Game 2.5

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

SpainSpain
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.5 vs 1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
ArgentinaArgentina
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.5 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Recent Form

SpainSpain
7W3D0L
14/07/2026
FranceSpain
02
W
10/07/2026
SpainBelgium
21
W
06/07/2026
PortugalSpain
01
W
02/07/2026
SpainAustria
30
W
27/06/2026
UruguaySpain
01
W
21/06/2026
SpainSaudi Arabia
40
W
15/06/2026
SpainCape Verde Islands
00
D
09/06/2026
PeruSpain
13
W
04/06/2026
SpainIraq
11
D
18/11/2025
SpainTürkiye
22
D
ArgentinaArgentina
9W0D1L
15/07/2026
EnglandArgentina
12
W
12/07/2026
ArgentinaSwitzerland
3111
W
07/07/2026
ArgentinaEgypt
32
W
04/07/2026
ArgentinaCape Verde Islands
3121
W
28/06/2026
JordanArgentina
13
W
22/06/2026
ArgentinaAustria
20
W
17/06/2026
ArgentinaAlgeria
30
W
10/06/2026
ArgentinaIceland
30
W
07/06/2026
ArgentinaHonduras
20
W
10/09/2025
EcuadorArgentina
10
L

Referee Profile

Slavko Vinčić209 matches

4.28Cards per match
4.14Yellow cards per match
0.13Red cards per match
26.2Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Slavko Vinčić4.28
Other referees4.22

4.28 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.22).

Cards come from 127 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

World Cup 2026

Group H

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1SpainSpain32105:0+57WWD
2Cape Verde IslandsCape Verde Islands30302:203DDD
3UruguayUruguay30213:4-12LDD
4Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia30211:5-42DLD
#TeamMPGPts
1SpainSpain35:07
2Cape Verde IslandsCape Verde Islands32:23
3UruguayUruguay33:42
4Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia31:52

Group J

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1ArgentinaArgentina33008:1+79WWW
2AustriaAustria31116:604DLW
3AlgeriaAlgeria31115:7-24DWL
4JordanJordan30033:8-50LLL
#TeamMPGPts
1ArgentinaArgentina38:19
2AustriaAustria36:64
3AlgeriaAlgeria35:74
4JordanJordan33:80

About the Spain vs Argentina forecast

As a knockout tie in the World Cup, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About World Cup

More World Cup fixtures and forecasts are on the World Cup Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 10.0 out of 10 by our context model. Spain and Argentina have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.