Portugal vs Croatia Prediction

Portugal
2-1
Finished
HT 0-0
Croatia
BMO Field, Toronto·Espen Eskas, Norway 03/07/2026
PortugalPortugal
2-1
Finished
CroatiaCroatia

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.5 / 10
Value Analysis
76%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.43
SignalHIGHModel59%SurpriseMediumGap+10.6%
Portugal Rest
4 days
Croatia Rest
5 days

Portugal vs Croatia: result, form and history

Portugal beat Croatia 2-1 in the World Cup on 3 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Portugal have had the better of this fixture, winning 3 of the 5 previous meetings, which averaged 3.0 goals a game. Portugal tend to win more corners, 5.7 a game to 3.1 for Croatia.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
62%1.70
X
28%3.73
2
10%5.35
Double Chance
1X
90%1.16
X2
38%2.16
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%1.70
No
48%2.09
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.65 + 1 = 2.65
Over 1.5
73%1.22
Over 2.5
46%1.73
Over 3.5
25%2.75
Under 1.5
27%4.10
Under 2.5
54%2.10
Under 3.5
75%1.43
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.6 + 3.1 = 8.7
Over 8.5
52%1.67
Over 9.5
43%2.09
Over 10.5
32%2.75
Under 8.5
48%2.09
Under 9.5
57%1.67
Under 10.5
68%1.39
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 2.5 = 4.3
Over 3.5
61%2.86
Over 4.5
36%3.77
Under 3.5
39%1.37
Under 4.5
64%1.25

Match Events

17'R. DiasElbowing
46'A. Budimir INI. Matanovic out
53'I. Perisic
59'L. ModricTripping
61'Goal Disallowed - offsideC. Ronaldo
62'Vitinha INB. Silva out
63'P. Neto INF. Conceicao out
63'B. Fernandes INN. Semedo out
63'J. Cancelo ING. Ramos out
68'C. Ronaldo(Penalty)
68'M. Baturina INM. Pasalic out
81'Goal Disallowed - offsideP. Sucic
81'C. Ronaldo INR. Neves out
90+2'N. Vlasic INJ. Gvardiol out
90+4'G. RamosAssist: R. Leao
90+6'M. Kovacic INA. Kramaric out
90+8'I. PerisicUnsportsmanlike conduct
90+13'Goal Disallowed - offsideJ. Gvardiol

Lineups

Portugal
4-2-3-1Coach: Roberto Martinez
Croatia
4-2-3-1Coach: Zlatko Dalic
Avg rating6.94
Avg rating6.57
Diogo Costa7.71D. Costa
João Cancelo6.720J. Cancelo
Rúben Dias7.53R. Dias
Renato Veiga7.013R. Veiga
Nuno Mendes7.725N. Mendes
João Neves7.015J. Neves
Vitinha7.223Vitinha
Pedro Neto6.218P. Neto
Bruno Fernandes6.68B. Fernandes
Rafael Leão6.517R. Leão
Cristiano RonaldoC7.27C. Ronaldo
Dominik Livaković6.51D. Livaković
Josip Stanišić6.32J. Stanišić
Josip Šutalo6.66J. Šutalo
Marin Pongračić6.23M. Pongračić
Ivan Perišić7.914I. Perišić
Luka ModrićC6.910L. Modrić
Mateo Kovačić7.28M. Kovačić
Nikola Vlašić6.213N. Vlašić
Petar Sučić6.517P. Sučić
Martin Baturina6.516M. Baturina
Ante Budimir6.511A. Budimir

Portugal Substitutes

2Nélson Semedo63'for B. Fernandes6.7
10Bernardo Silva62'for Vitinha6.2
26Francisco Conceição63'for P. Neto6.3
9Gonçalo Ramos63'for J. Cancelo90+4'7.9
12José Sá
22Rui Silva
4Tomás Araújo
6Matheus Nunes
14Gonçalo Inácio
5Diogo Dalot
16Francisco Trincão
19Gonçalo Guedes
21Rúben Neves81'for C. Ronaldo6.7
24Samú Costa
11João Félix

Croatia Substitutes

20Igor Matanović46'for A. Budimir6.2
15Mario Pašalić68'for M. Baturina6.5
12Ivor Pandur
23Dominik Kotarski
4Joško Gvardiol90+2'for N. Vlasic6.2
5Duje Ćaleta-Car
22Luka Vušković
25Martin Erlić
7Nikola Moro
24Marco Pašalić
19Toni Fruk
21Luka Sučić
18Kristijan Jakić
9Andrej Kramarić90+6'for M. Kovacic6.3
26Petar Musa

Match Stats

PortugalCroatia
61%Ball Possession39%
9Corner Kicks5
1Yellow Cards2
15Total Shots13
3Shots on Goal6
8Shots off Goal5
10Shots Inside Box10
5Shots Outside Box3
4Blocked Shots2
6Fouls12
1Offsides4
5Goalkeeper Saves2
584Total Passes368
532Passes Accurate311
91%Pass Accuracy85%

Team Comparison

PortugalPortugal
CroatiaCroatia
1845Elo Rating 1731
2.01Attack 0.94
1.94Defense 0.00
86%Hit Rate 17%
17.3Shots per Game 10.9
6.1Shots on Target 3.6
5.7Corners per Game 3.1
2.5Cards per Game 2.0

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+114 Elo
📈BTTS Trend80% in H2H
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

PortugalPortugal
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
CroatiaCroatia
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

PortugalPortugal3Wins · 60%
Draws240%
CroatiaCroatia0Wins · 0%
3.0Avg Goals
80%Both teams scored4 of 5
60%3+ goals3 of 5

Previous meetings

UEFA Nations League18/11/2024
CroatiaPortugal
11
UEFA Nations League05/09/2024
PortugalCroatia
21
UEFA Nations League17/11/2020
CroatiaPortugal
23
UEFA Nations League05/09/2020
PortugalCroatia
41
Euro Championship25/06/2016
CroatiaPortugal
0010

Recent Form

PortugalPortugal
6W3D1L
28/06/2026
ColombiaPortugal
00
D
23/06/2026
PortugalUzbekistan
50
W
17/06/2026
PortugalCongo DR
11
D
10/06/2026
PortugalNigeria
21
W
06/06/2026
PortugalChile
21
W
16/11/2025
PortugalArmenia
91
W
13/11/2025
Rep. Of IrelandPortugal
20
L
14/10/2025
PortugalHungary
22
D
11/10/2025
PortugalRep. Of Ireland
10
W
09/09/2025
HungaryPortugal
23
W
CroatiaCroatia
7W1D2L
27/06/2026
CroatiaGhana
21
W
24/06/2026
PanamaCroatia
01
W
17/06/2026
EnglandCroatia
42
L
07/06/2026
CroatiaSlovenia
21
W
02/06/2026
CroatiaBelgium
02
L
17/11/2025
MontenegroCroatia
23
W
14/11/2025
CroatiaFaroe Islands
31
W
12/10/2025
CroatiaGibraltar
30
W
09/10/2025
Czech RepublicCroatia
00
D
08/09/2025
CroatiaMontenegro
40
W

Referee Profile

Espen Eskas166 matches

3.56Cards per match
3.48Yellow cards per match
0.08Red cards per match
21.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Espen Eskas3.56
Other referees3.67

3.56 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.67).

Cards come from 150 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

World Cup 2026

Group K

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1ColombiaColombia32104:1+37DWW
2PortugalPortugal31206:1+55DWD
3Congo DRCongo DR31114:3+14WLD
4UzbekistanUzbekistan30032:11-90LLL
#TeamMPGPts
1ColombiaColombia34:17
2PortugalPortugal36:15
3Congo DRCongo DR34:34
4UzbekistanUzbekistan32:110

Group L

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1EnglandEngland32106:2+47WDW
2CroatiaCroatia32015:506WWL
3GhanaGhana31112:204LDW
4PanamaPanama30030:4-40LLL
#TeamMPGPts
1EnglandEngland36:27
2CroatiaCroatia35:56
3GhanaGhana32:24
4PanamaPanama30:40

About the Portugal vs Croatia forecast

As a knockout tie in the World Cup, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About World Cup

More World Cup fixtures and forecasts are on the World Cup Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.5 out of 10 by our context model. Portugal have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.