Portugal vs Spain Prediction

Portugal
0-1
Finished
HT 0-0
Spain
AT&T Stadium, Dallas·Anthony Taylor, England 06/07/2026
PortugalPortugal
0-1
Finished
SpainSpain

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
8.0 / 10
Value Analysis
75%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.39
SignalHIGHModel40%SurpriseMediumGap+7.9%
Portugal Rest
3 days
Spain Rest
4 days

Portugal vs Spain: the result in context

Spain beat Portugal 1-0 in the World Cup on 6 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 6 previous meetings averaged 2.3 goals, with both teams scoring in 3 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
15%4.10
X
43%3.58
2
42%1.91
Double Chance
1X
58%1.89
X2
85%1.22
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.65
No
47%2.15
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.16 + 1.39 = 2.55
Over 1.5
74%1.22
Over 2.5
46%1.80
Over 3.5
25%2.91
Under 1.5
26%3.83
Under 2.5
54%2.04
Under 3.5
75%1.39
Corners
Projected Corners: 3.9 + 4.7 = 8.6
Over 8.5
54%1.57
Over 9.5
45%1.88
Over 10.5
33%2.37
Under 8.5
46%2.25
Under 9.5
55%1.85
Under 10.5
67%1.52
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 1.7 = 3.4
Over 3.5
43%2.13
Over 4.5
25%2.95
Under 3.5
57%1.67
Under 4.5
75%1.37

Match Events

56'N. Mendes INN. Semedo out
71'Joao Felix INR. Leao out
71'J. Cancelo IND. Dalot out
75'A. Baena INF. Torres out
83'P. Neto INF. Conceicao out
83'Vitinha INB. Silva out
85'Pedri INF. Ruiz out
85'D. Olmo INM. Merino out
89'B. SilvaRoughing
90+1'M. MerinoAssist: F. Torres
90+4'R. VeigaHolding
90+7'M. Oyarzabal INB. Iglesias out
90+8'F. TorresTripping

Lineups

Portugal
4-2-3-1Coach: Roberto Martinez
Spain
4-2-3-1Coach: Luis de la Fuente
Avg rating6.66
Avg rating7.06
Diogo Costa7.61D. Costa
João Cancelo7.220J. Cancelo
Rúben Dias6.73R. Dias
Renato Veiga6.813R. Veiga
Nuno Mendes7.225N. Mendes
Vitinha6.523Vitinha
João Neves6.915J. Neves
Pedro Neto6.518P. Neto
Bruno Fernandes6.38B. Fernandes
João Félix6.411J. Félix
Cristiano Ronaldo6.47C. Ronaldo
Unai Simón6.623U. Simón
Pedro Porro7.612P. Porro
Pau Cubarsí7.222P. Cubarsí
Aymeric Laporte7.114A. Laporte
Marc Cucurella7.424M. Cucurella
Rodri7.316Rodri
Pedri7.220Pedri
Lamine Yamal6.619L. Yamal
Dani Olmo7.010D. Olmo
Alex Baena6.815A. Baena
Mikel Oyarzabal6.421M. Oyarzabal

Portugal Substitutes

2Nélson Semedo56'for N. Mendes6.2
12José Sá
22Rui Silva
6Matheus Nunes
14Gonçalo Inácio
5Diogo Dalot71'for J. Cancelo6.9
4Tomás Araújo
10Bernardo Silva83'for Vitinha89'6.0
19Gonçalo Guedes
16Francisco Trincão
24Samú Costa
21Rúben Neves
26Francisco Conceição83'for P. Neto6.6
9Gonçalo Ramos
17Rafael Leão71'for Joao Felix6.6

Spain Substitutes

1David Raya
13Joan García
4Eric García
5Marcos Llorente
2Marc Pubill
3Alejandro Grimaldo
8Fabián Ruiz85'for Pedri6.8
18Martín Zubimendi
6Mikel Merino85'for D. Olmo90+1'8.2
17Nico Williams
9Pablo Gavi
26Borja Iglesias90+7'for M. Oyarzabal
7Ferran Torres75'for A. Baena90+8'6.8
25Víctor Muñoz
11Yéremy Pino

Match Stats

PortugalSpain
45%Ball Possession55%
3Corner Kicks7
2Yellow Cards1
10Total Shots15
2Shots on Goal6
5Shots off Goal6
7Shots Inside Box8
3Shots Outside Box7
3Blocked Shots3
9Fouls13
2Offsides1
5Goalkeeper Saves2
427Total Passes530
357Passes Accurate467
84%Pass Accuracy88%

Team Comparison

PortugalPortugal
SpainSpain
1845Elo Rating 1983
2.01Attack 2.50
1.94Defense 1.98
86%Hit Rate 86%
17.3Shots per Game 14.5
6.1Shots on Target 6.7
5.7Corners per Game 5.7
2.5Cards per Game 1.0

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend50% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

PortugalPortugal
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
SpainSpain
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.5 vs 1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 6 meetings, all competitions

PortugalPortugal0Wins · 0%
Draws467%
SpainSpain2Wins · 33%
2.3Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored3 of 6
33%3+ goals2 of 6

Previous meetings

UEFA Nations League08/06/2025
PortugalSpain
5232
UEFA Nations League27/09/2022
PortugalSpain
01
UEFA Nations League02/06/2022
SpainPortugal
11
World Cup15/06/2018
PortugalSpain
33
Euro Championship27/06/2012
PortugalSpain
2040
World Cup29/06/2010
SpainPortugal
10

Recent Form

PortugalPortugal
6W3D1L
03/07/2026
PortugalCroatia
21
W
28/06/2026
ColombiaPortugal
00
D
23/06/2026
PortugalUzbekistan
50
W
17/06/2026
PortugalCongo DR
11
D
10/06/2026
PortugalNigeria
21
W
06/06/2026
PortugalChile
21
W
16/11/2025
PortugalArmenia
91
W
13/11/2025
Rep. Of IrelandPortugal
20
L
14/10/2025
PortugalHungary
22
D
11/10/2025
PortugalRep. Of Ireland
10
W
SpainSpain
7W3D0L
02/07/2026
SpainAustria
30
W
27/06/2026
UruguaySpain
01
W
21/06/2026
SpainSaudi Arabia
40
W
15/06/2026
SpainCape Verde Islands
00
D
09/06/2026
PeruSpain
13
W
04/06/2026
SpainIraq
11
D
18/11/2025
SpainTürkiye
22
D
15/11/2025
GeorgiaSpain
04
W
14/10/2025
SpainBulgaria
40
W
11/10/2025
SpainGeorgia
20
W

Referee Profile

Anthony Taylor312 matches

4.12Cards per match
3.95Yellow cards per match
0.17Red cards per match
22.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Anthony Taylor4.11
Other referees3.99

4.11 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.99).

Cards come from 309 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

World Cup 2026

Group H

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1SpainSpain32105:0+57WWD
2Cape Verde IslandsCape Verde Islands30302:203DDD
3UruguayUruguay30213:4-12LDD
4Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia30211:5-42DLD
#TeamMPGPts
1SpainSpain35:07
2Cape Verde IslandsCape Verde Islands32:23
3UruguayUruguay33:42
4Saudi ArabiaSaudi Arabia31:52

Group K

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1ColombiaColombia32104:1+37DWW
2PortugalPortugal31206:1+55DWD
3Congo DRCongo DR31114:3+14WLD
4UzbekistanUzbekistan30032:11-90LLL
#TeamMPGPts
1ColombiaColombia34:17
2PortugalPortugal36:15
3Congo DRCongo DR34:34
4UzbekistanUzbekistan32:110

About the Portugal vs Spain forecast

As a knockout tie in the World Cup, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About World Cup

More World Cup fixtures and forecasts are on the World Cup Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 8.0 out of 10 by our context model. Portugal have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.