Belgium vs Senegal Prediction

Belgium
3-2
After Extra Time
HT 0-1AET 1-0
Senegal
Lumen Field, Seattle·Said Martinez, Honduras 01/07/2026
BelgiumBelgium
3-2
After Extra Time
SenegalSenegal

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
75%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.29
SignalHIGHModel56%SurpriseMediumGap-2.0%
Value Analysis
68%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 10.5
1.64
SignalGOODModel51%SurpriseMediumGap+6.1%
Belgium Rest
4 days
Senegal Rest
5 days

Belgium vs Senegal: the result in context

Belgium beat Senegal 3-2 after extra time in the World Cup on 1 Jul 2026. It was in line with recent form: Belgium had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Senegal.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
53%2.14
X
23%3.25
2
24%3.75
Double Chance
1X
75%1.29
X2
47%1.70
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%1.65
No
50%2.14
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.23 + 0.93 = 2.16
Over 1.5
71%1.25
Over 2.5
43%1.85
Over 3.5
23%3.02
Under 1.5
29%3.78
Under 2.5
57%1.94
Under 3.5
77%1.36
Corners
Projected Corners: 5 + 3.4 = 8.3
Over 8.5
51%1.47
Over 9.5
43%1.82
Over 10.5
32%2.15
Under 8.5
49%2.52
Under 9.5
57%1.91
Under 10.5
68%1.64
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 1.6 = 3.4
Over 3.5
51%2.28
Over 4.5
29%3.35
Under 3.5
49%1.54
Under 4.5
71%1.27

Match Events

25'H. Diarra
46'C. De Ketelaere INR. Lukaku out
51'I. SarrAssist: M. Niakhate
56'K. De Bruyne INN. Raskin out
56'J. Doku IND. Lukebakio out
63'H. Vanaken IND. Moreira out
64'B. MecheleRoughing
66'P. Gueye INL. Camara out
67'L. CamaraRoughing
73'I. Ndiaye INI. Mbaye out
73'H. Diarra INP. M. Sarr out
78'M. De Cuyper INT. Meunier out
86'R. LukakuAssist: T. Meunier
89'Y. TielemansAssist: L. Trossard
90'R. Garcia

Extra Time1 - 0

93'S. Mane INN. Jackson out
93'I. Jakobs INM. Diouf out
96'I. Gueye INB. Sapoko Ndiaye out
109'L. Trossard INA. Onana out
120+5'Y. Tielemans(Penalty)

Lineups

Belgium
4-2-3-1Coach: Rudi Garcia
Senegal
4-3-3Coach: Bouna Thiaw Pape
Avg rating6.97
Avg rating6.58
Thibaut Courtois6.91T. Courtois
Timothy Castagne6.621T. Castagne
Brandon Mechele6.94B. Mechele
Arthur Theate7.23A. Theate
Maxim De Cuyper6.35M. De Cuyper
Youri TielemansC8.38Y. Tielemans
Hans Vanaken6.920H. Vanaken
Leandro Trossard7.310L. Trossard
Kevin De Bruyne6.77K. De Bruyne
Jérémy Doku6.911J. Doku
Charles De Ketelaere6.217C. De Ketelaere
Mory Diaw6.023M. Diaw
Krépin Diatta6.615K. Diatta
Pathé Ismaël Ciss6.96P. Ismaël Ciss
Moussa Niakhaté6.619M. Niakhaté
Ismail Jakobs6.214I. Jakobs
Habib Diarra7.521H. Diarra
Idrissa Gana GueyeC6.65I. Gana Gueye
Pape Gueye6.326P. Gueye
Iliman Ndiaye6.613I. Ndiaye
Ismaïla Sarr8.318I. Sarr
Sadio Mané7.010S. Mané

Belgium Substitutes

9Romelu Lukaku46'for C. De Ketelaere86'7.7
23Nicolas Raskin56'for K. De Bruyne7.0
14Dodi Lukebakio56'for J. Doku7.0
19Diego Moreira63'for H. Vanaken6.9
15Thomas Meunier78'for M. De Cuyper7.0
24Amadou Onana109'for L. Trossard6.7
13Mike Penders
12Senne Lammens
16Koni De Winter
18Joaquin Seys
25Nathan Ngoy
6Axel Witsel
22Alexis Saelemaekers
26Matías Fernández-Pardo

Senegal Substitutes

8Lamine Camara66'for P. Gueye67'5.6
17Pape Matar Sarr73'for H. Diarra6.2
20Ibrahim Mbaye73'for I. Ndiaye6.3
25El Hadji Malick Diouf93'for I. Jakobs6.3
11Nicolas Jackson93'for S. Mane6.3
22Bara Sapoko Ndiaye96'for I. Gueye6.6
1Yehvann Diouf
3Kalidou Koulibaly
4Abdoulaye Seck
24Antoine Mendy
2Mamadou Sarr
7Assane Diao
9Ahmadou Bamba Dieng
12Cherif Ndiaye

Match Stats

BelgiumSenegal
52%Ball Possession48%
4Corner Kicks1
1Yellow Cards1
16Total Shots13
4Shots on Goal4
8Shots off Goal8
9Shots Inside Box9
7Shots Outside Box4
4Blocked Shots1
22Fouls12
2Offsides2
2Goalkeeper Saves3
523Total Passes469
456Passes Accurate403
86%Pass Accuracy84%

Team Comparison

BelgiumBelgium
SenegalSenegal
1787Elo Rating 1773
1.43Attack 2.17
1.45Defense 1.62
39%Hit Rate 46%
11.4Shots per Game 13.8
4.8Shots on Target 5.0
2.9Corners per Game 4.3
3.0Cards per Game 2.4

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

BelgiumBelgium
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
SenegalSenegal
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.5 vs 0.7 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Recent Form

BelgiumBelgium
6W4D0L
27/06/2026
New ZealandBelgium
15
W
21/06/2026
BelgiumIran
00
D
15/06/2026
BelgiumEgypt
11
D
06/06/2026
BelgiumTunisia
50
W
02/06/2026
CroatiaBelgium
02
W
18/11/2025
BelgiumLiechtenstein
70
W
15/11/2025
KazakhstanBelgium
11
D
13/10/2025
WalesBelgium
24
W
10/10/2025
BelgiumFYR Macedonia
00
D
07/09/2025
BelgiumKazakhstan
60
W
SenegalSenegal
5W1D4L
26/06/2026
SenegalIraq
50
W
23/06/2026
NorwaySenegal
32
L
16/06/2026
FranceSenegal
31
L
10/06/2026
Saudi ArabiaSenegal
00
D
31/05/2026
USASenegal
32
L
18/01/2026
SenegalMorocco
0030
L
14/01/2026
SenegalEgypt
10
W
09/01/2026
MaliSenegal
01
W
03/01/2026
SenegalSudan
31
W
30/12/2025
BeninSenegal
03
W

Referee Profile

Said Martinez23 matches

3.83Cards per match
3.67Yellow cards per match
0.17Red cards per match
34.6Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Said Martinez3.83
Other referees4.08

3.83 cards a match, 0.25 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.08).

Cards come from 18 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

World Cup 2026

Group G

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1BelgiumBelgium31206:2+45WDD
2EgyptEgypt31205:3+25DWD
3IranIran30303:303DDD
4New ZealandNew Zealand30124:10-61LLD
#TeamMPGPts
1BelgiumBelgium36:25
2EgyptEgypt35:35
3IranIran33:33
4New ZealandNew Zealand34:101

Group I

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1FranceFrance330010:2+89WWW
2NorwayNorway32018:7+16LWW
3SenegalSenegal31028:6+23WLL
4IraqIraq30031:12-110LLL
#TeamMPGPts
1FranceFrance310:29
2NorwayNorway38:76
3SenegalSenegal38:63
4IraqIraq31:120

Group Stage

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Congo DRCongo DR31114:3+14WLD
2SwedenSweden31117:704DLW
3GhanaGhana31112:204LDW
4EcuadorEcuador31112:204WDL
5Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina31115:6-14WLD
6AlgeriaAlgeria31115:7-24DWL
7ParaguayParaguay31112:4-24DWL
8SenegalSenegal31028:6+23WLL
9IranIran30303:303DDD
10South KoreaSouth Korea31022:3-13LLW
11ScotlandScotland31021:4-33LLW
12UruguayUruguay30213:4-12LDD
#TeamMPGPts
1Congo DRCongo DR34:34
2SwedenSweden37:74
3GhanaGhana32:24
4EcuadorEcuador32:24
5Bosnia & HerzegovinaBosnia & Herzegovina35:64
6AlgeriaAlgeria35:74
7ParaguayParaguay32:44
8SenegalSenegal38:63
9IranIran33:33
10South KoreaSouth Korea32:33
11ScotlandScotland31:43
12UruguayUruguay33:42

About the Belgium vs Senegal forecast

As a knockout tie in the World Cup, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About World Cup

More World Cup fixtures and forecasts are on the World Cup Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.5 out of 10 by our context model. Belgium have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Senegal have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Belgium and Senegal have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.