Germany vs Paraguay Prediction
World · Round of 32CupKnockout
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
74%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.35
SignalGOODModel100%SurpriseMediumGap-0.3%
Value Analysis
73%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.44
SignalHIGHModel90%SurpriseMediumGap+7.0%
Germany Rest
4 days
Paraguay Rest
3 days
Match Forecasts
Match Result
173%1.35
X22%5.00
25%8.80
Double Chance
1X95%1.07
X226%3.17
Both Teams to Score
Yes51%2.00
No49%1.75
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.4 + 0.83 = 3.23
Over 1.573%1.20
Over 2.548%1.72
Over 3.527%2.75
Under 1.527%4.25
Under 2.552%2.15
Under 3.573%1.44
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.8 + 2.4 = 8.2
Over 8.551%1.61
Over 9.542%2.00
Over 10.532%2.57
Under 8.549%2.19
Under 9.558%1.75
Under 10.568%1.47
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.2 + 1.9 = 3.1
Over 3.548%2.43
Over 4.527%3.30
Under 3.552%1.48
Under 4.573%1.28
Match Events
42'J. EncisoAssist: M. Galarza
46'F. Nmecha INL. Goretzka out
54'K. HavertzAssist: F. Wirtz
55'G. Avalos ING. Caballero out
57'J. Enciso INMauricio out
63'D. Undav INJ. Musiala out
65'A. CubasRoughing
79'A. Pavlovic INW. Anton out
88'L. Sane INN. Woltemade out
Extra Time0 - 0
91'M. Almiron ING. Velazquez out
99'J. Caceres INB. Ojeda out
99'D. Bobadilla INA. Sanabria out
102'Goal Disallowed - FoulJ. Tah
105'G. Alfaro
105+1'J. Nagelsmann
106'K. HavertzFoul
110'F. Wirtz INN. Amiri out
110'A. Rudiger INM. Thiaw out
115'J. MusialaRoughing
117'M. GalarzaFoul
120+2'J. Alonso INFabian Balbuena out
Penalty Shootout3 - 4
1K. Havertz(Penalty missed)
1Mauricio(Penalty)
2J. Kimmich(Penalty)
2G. Gomez(Penalty)
3J. Musiala(Penalty)
3M. Galarza(Penalty)
4N. Woltemade(Penalty missed)
4A. Sanabria(Penalty missed)
5N. Amiri(Penalty)
5Fabian Balbuena(Penalty missed)
6J. Tah(Penalty missed)
6J. Canale(Penalty)
Lineups
GermanyParaguay
4-4-2Coach: Gustavo AlfaroAvg ratingAvg rating
1M. Neuer
C6J. Kimmich
4J. Tah
2A. Rüdiger
18N. Brown
19L. Sané
23F. Nmecha
5A. Pavlović
17F. Wirtz
7K. Havertz
26D. Undav
12O. Gill
4J. Cáceres
C15G. Gómez
13J. Canale
6J. Alonso
10M. Almirón
16D. Bobadilla
14A. Cubas
23M. Galarza
21G. Ávalos
19J. EncisoGermany Substitutes
8Leon Goretzka46'for F. Nmecha
10Jamal Musiala63'for D. Undav115'
3Waldemar Anton79'for A. Pavlovic
11Nick Woltemade88'for L. Sane
21Alexander Nübel
12Oliver Baumann
22David Raum
24Malick Thiaw110'for A. Rudiger
13Pascal Groß
16Angelo Stiller
25Assan Ouédraogo
9Jamie Leweling
20Nadiem Amiri110'for F. Wirtz
14Maximilian Beier
Paraguay Substitutes
24Gustavo Caballero55'for G. Avalos
11Mauricio57'for J. Enciso
22Gastón Olveira
1Roberto Fernández
2Gustavo Velázquez91'for M. Almiron
3Omar Alderete
5Fabián Balbuena120+2'for J. Alonso
26Alexandro Maidana
20Braian Ojeda99'for J. Caceres
17Alejandro Romero
7Ramón Sosa
9Antonio Sanabria99'for D. Bobadilla
18Alex Arce
25Isidro Pitta
Match Stats
GermanyParaguay 75%Ball Possession25%
10Corner Kicks4
0Yellow Cards1
14Total Shots7
4Shots on Goal3
5Shots off Goal2
7Shots Inside Box6
7Shots Outside Box1
6Blocked Shots2
18Fouls12
4Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves4
645Total Passes203
580Passes Accurate126
90%Pass Accuracy63%
Team Comparison
GermanyParaguay1760Elo Rating 1599
0.76Attack 0.54
2.50Defense 1.94
23%Hit Rate 17%
19.7Shots per Game 6.7
4.8Shots on Target 1.8
6.7Corners per Game 1.8
1.2Cards per Game 1.5
AI Insights
🏠Strong Home Advantage+160 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.23 goals
📉Home Underperforming
Game State Tendencies
Germany- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Paraguay- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.4 vs 0.1 in second half)
Recent Form
Germany9W0D1L
25/06/2026
EcuadorGermanyGermany
Ivory CoastGermany
Curaçao
EcuadorGermany21
L20/06/2026GermanyIvory Coast21
W14/06/2026GermanyCuraçao71
W06/06/2026
USAGermany
USAGermany12
W31/05/2026Germany
Finland
GermanyFinland40
W17/11/2025Germany
Slovakia
GermanySlovakia60
W14/11/2025
LuxembourgGermany
LuxembourgGermany02
W13/10/2025
Northern IrelandGermany
Northern IrelandGermany01
W10/10/2025GermanyLuxembourg
GermanyLuxembourg40
W07/09/2025GermanyNorthern Ireland
GermanyNorthern Ireland31
WParaguay5W3D2L
26/06/2026Paraguay
Australia
TürkiyeParaguayUSAParaguay
ParaguayAustralia00
D20/06/2026TürkiyeParaguay01
W13/06/2026USAParaguay41
L06/06/2026Paraguay
Nicaragua
ParaguayNicaragua40
W10/09/2025
PeruParaguay
PeruParaguay01
W05/09/2025ParaguayEcuador
ParaguayEcuador00
D11/06/2025
BrazilParaguay
BrazilParaguay10
L06/06/2025Paraguay
Uruguay
ParaguayUruguay20
W26/03/2025
ColombiaParaguay
ColombiaParaguay22
D21/03/2025Paraguay
Chile
ParaguayChile10
WReferee Profile
3.43Cards per match
3.36Yellow cards per match
0.07Red cards per match
30.9Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
3.43 cards a match, 0.33 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.76).
Cards come from 14 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsBracket
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Brazil2
Japan1
Netherlands12
Morocco13Ivory Coast1
Norway2
Spain3
Austria0
Argentina12
Cape Verde Islands11
Brazil2Japan1Netherlands12Morocco13Ivory Coast1Norway2Spain3Austria0Argentina12Cape Verde Islands11League Table
Group D
Group E
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10:4 | +6 | 6 | LWW |
| 2 | Ivory Coast | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | +2 | 6 | WLW |
| 3 | Ecuador | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 0 | 4 | WDL |
| 4 | Curaçao | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1:9 | -8 | 1 | LDL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany | 3 | 10:4 | 6 |
| 2 | Ivory Coast | 3 | 4:2 | 6 |
| 3 | Ecuador | 3 | 2:2 | 4 |
| 4 | Curaçao | 3 | 1:9 | 1 |
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About the Germany vs Paraguay forecast
As a knockout tie in the World Cup, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
About World Cup
More World Cup fixtures and forecasts are on the World Cup Predictions page.
Key Factors for This Match
This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.5 out of 10 by our context model. Germany and Paraguay have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.