England vs Argentina Prediction

World CupWorld World · Semi-finals
CupKnockout
England
1-2
Finished
HT 0-0
Argentina
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta·Ismail Elfath, USA 15/07/2026
EnglandEngland
1-2
Finished
ArgentinaArgentina

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
9.3 / 10
AI Best Pick
79%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.38
SignalHIGHModel45%SurpriseMediumGap+6.3%
Value Analysis
80%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.38
SignalSTRONGModel40%SurpriseHighGap+11.1%
England Rest
3 days
Argentina Rest
3 days

England vs Argentina: result, form and history

Argentina beat England 2-1 in the World Cup on 15 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee Ismail Elfath averages 4.58 cards a game, 0.52 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
44%2.66
X
35%2.88
2
21%3.02
Double Chance
1X
79%1.38
X2
56%1.46
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.91
No
47%1.84
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.43 + 0.91 = 2.34
Over 1.5
72%1.42
Over 2.5
43%2.38
Over 3.5
25%4.30
Under 1.5
28%2.76
Under 2.5
57%1.60
Under 3.5
75%1.19
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.8 + 3.5 = 8.3
Over 8.5
54%2.25
Over 9.5
45%3.00
Over 10.5
33%4.50
Under 8.5
46%1.58
Under 9.5
55%1.32
Under 10.5
67%1.18
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 1.9 = 3.6
Over 3.5
49%1.71
Over 4.5
30%2.32
Under 3.5
51%2.02
Under 4.5
70%1.57

Match Events

37'E. AndersonTripping
42'L. MartinezHolding
51'C. RomeroHolding
55'A. GordonAssist: M. Rogers
64'L. Paredes INN. Gonzalez out
72'A. Gordon INE. Konsa out
72'G. Simeone INR. de Paul out
72'N. Molina ING. Montiel out
72'L. Martinez INN. Otamendi out
81'N. Tagliafico INL. Martinez out
82'R. James IND. Burn out
82'D. Rice INN. O'Reilly out
85'E. FernandezAssist: L. Messi
90+2'L. MartinezAssist: L. Messi
90+4'R. de PaulUnsportsmanlike conduct
90+6'J. Stones INI. Toney out
90+6'D. Spence INM. Rashford out

Lineups

England
4-2-3-1Coach: Thomas Tuchel
Argentina
4-1-4-1Coach: Lionel Scaloni
Avg rating6.64
Avg rating6.79
Jordan Pickford6.31J. Pickford
Reece James6.924R. James
John Stones6.75J. Stones
Marc Guéhi6.56M. Guéhi
Djed Spence6.625D. Spence
Declan Rice7.24D. Rice
Elliot Anderson7.38E. Anderson
Morgan Rogers7.217M. Rogers
Jude Bellingham6.710J. Bellingham
Anthony Gordon7.018A. Gordon
Harry KaneC6.39H. Kane
Emiliano Martínez6.623E. Martínez
Nahuel Molina6.226N. Molina
Cristian Romero7.213C. Romero
Lisandro Martínez6.56L. Martínez
Nicolás Tagliafico6.23N. Tagliafico
Leandro Paredes7.25L. Paredes
Giuliano Simeone6.217G. Simeone
Enzo Fernández7.624E. Fernández
Alexis Mac Allister6.220A. Mac Allister
Julián Alvarez6.69J. Alvarez
Lionel MessiC8.010L. Messi

England Substitutes

2Ezri Konsa72'for A. Gordon6.0
3Nico O'Reilly82'for D. Rice6.2
15Dan Burn82'for R. James6.0
11Marcus Rashford90+6'for D. Spence
22Ivan Toney90+6'for J. Stones
23James Trafford
13Dean Henderson
12Trevoh Chalobah
21Eberechi Eze
14Jordan Henderson
16Kobbie Mainoo
7Bukayo Saka
20Noni Madueke
19Ollie Watkins

Argentina Substitutes

15Nicolás González64'for L. Paredes6.6
19Nicolás Otamendi72'for L. Martinez6.9
4Gonzalo Montiel72'for N. Molina6.2
7Rodrigo De Paul72'for G. Simeone90+4'7.2
22Lautaro Martínez42'72'replaced by N. Otamendi81'for N. Tagliafico90+2'7.2
1Juan Musso
12Gerónimo Rulli
25Facundo Medina
2Marcos Senesi
16Thiago Almada
11Giovani Lo Celso
14Exequiel Palacios
18Nico Paz
8Valentín Barco
21José Manuel López

Match Stats

EnglandArgentina
36%Ball Possession64%
1Corner Kicks6
1Yellow Cards3
5Total Shots15
2Shots on Goal5
1Shots off Goal7
2Shots Inside Box7
3Shots Outside Box8
2Blocked Shots3
11Fouls15
1Offsides3
3Goalkeeper Saves1
324Total Passes590
272Passes Accurate537
84%Pass Accuracy91%

Team Comparison

EnglandEngland
ArgentinaArgentina
1902Elo Rating 1913
3.98Attack 1.57
1.94Defense 2.10
83%Hit Rate 54%
18.1Shots per Game 10.0
6.8Shots on Target 3.3
5.7Corners per Game 4.5
1.1Cards per Game 2.5

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend
💎Value Analysis Identified
📊Home Overperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

EnglandEngland
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (2.4 vs 1.6 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
ArgentinaArgentina
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.5 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Recent Form

EnglandEngland
9W1D0L
11/07/2026
NorwayEngland
1121
W06/07/2026
MexicoEngland
23
W01/07/2026
EnglandCongo DR
21
W27/06/2026
PanamaEngland
02
W23/06/2026
EnglandGhana
00
D17/06/2026
EnglandCroatia
42
W
10/06/2026
EnglandCosta Rica
30
W
06/06/2026
EnglandNew Zealand
10
W
16/11/2025
AlbaniaEngland
02
W
13/11/2025
EnglandSerbia
20
W
ArgentinaArgentina
9W0D1L
12/07/2026
ArgentinaSwitzerland
3111
W07/07/2026
ArgentinaEgypt
32
W
04/07/2026
ArgentinaCape Verde Islands
3121
W
28/06/2026
JordanArgentina
13
W22/06/2026
ArgentinaAustria
20
W17/06/2026
ArgentinaAlgeria
30
W
10/06/2026
ArgentinaIceland
30
W
07/06/2026
ArgentinaHonduras
20
W
10/09/2025
EcuadorArgentina
10
L
05/09/2025
ArgentinaVenezuela
30
W

Referee Profile

Ismail Elfath115 matches

4.58Cards per match
4.35Yellow cards per match
0.23Red cards per match
26.3Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Ismail Elfath4.58
Other referees4.06

4.58 cards a match, 0.52 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.06).

Cards come from 107 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
South Africa0
Canada1
Brazil2
Japan1
Germany13
Paraguay14
On penalties
Netherlands12
Morocco13
On penalties
Ivory Coast1
Norway2
France3
Sweden0
Mexico2
Ecuador0
England2
Congo DR1
Belgium21
Senegal20
After extra time
USA2
Bosnia & Herzegovina0
Spain3
Austria0
Portugal2
Croatia1
Switzerland2
Algeria0
Australia12
Egypt14
On penalties
Argentina12
Cape Verde Islands11
After extra time
Colombia1
Ghana0
Canada0
Morocco3
Paraguay0
France1
Brazil1
Norway2
Mexico2
England3
Portugal0
Spain1
USA1
Belgium4
Argentina3
Egypt2
Switzerland04
Colombia03
On penalties
France2
Morocco0
Spain2
Belgium1
Norway10
England11
After extra time
Argentina12
Switzerland10
After extra time
France0
Spain2
England1
Argentina2
Spain01
Argentina00
After extra time
France0
Spain2
England1
Argentina2

League Table

World Cup 2026

Group J

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1ArgentinaArgentina33008:1+79WWW
2AustriaAustria31116:604DLW
3AlgeriaAlgeria31115:7-24DWL
4JordanJordan30033:8-50LLL
#TeamMPGPts
1ArgentinaArgentina38:19
2AustriaAustria36:64
3AlgeriaAlgeria35:74
4JordanJordan33:80

Group L

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1EnglandEngland32106:2+47WDW
2CroatiaCroatia32015:506WWL
3GhanaGhana31112:204LDW
4PanamaPanama30030:4-40LLL
#TeamMPGPts
1EnglandEngland36:27
2CroatiaCroatia35:56
3GhanaGhana32:24
4PanamaPanama30:40

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About the England vs Argentina forecast

As a knockout tie in the World Cup, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About World Cup

More World Cup fixtures and forecasts are on the World Cup Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 9.3 out of 10 by our context model. England have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. England and Argentina have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.