Portugal vs Uzbekistan Prediction

Portugal
5-0
Finished
HT 3-0
Uzbekistan
NRG Stadium, Houston·Jalal Jayed, Morocco 23/06/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.0 / 10
Value Analysis
56%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 9.5
1.83
SignalNEUTRALModel90%SurpriseMediumGap+6.3%
Portugal Rest
6 days
Uzbekistan Rest
5 days

Portugal vs Uzbekistan: the result in context

Portugal beat Uzbekistan 5-0 in the World Cup on 23 Jun 2026. It was in line with recent form: Portugal had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Uzbekistan.

Portugal tend to win more corners, 5.7 a game to 3.5 for Uzbekistan.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
77%1.15
X
19%8.20
2
4%18.50
Double Chance
1X
96%1.02
X2
23%5.35
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%2.45
No
48%1.50
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.81 + 0.91 = 2.72
Over 1.5
73%1.13
Over 2.5
48%1.49
Over 3.5
27%2.24
Under 1.5
27%5.33
Under 2.5
52%2.60
Under 3.5
73%1.67
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.8 + 2.5 = 8.3
Over 8.5
53%1.54
Over 9.5
44%1.89
Over 10.5
33%2.44
Under 8.5
47%2.36
Under 9.5
56%1.83
Under 10.5
67%1.50
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.7 + 1.9 = 3.5
Over 3.5
55%2.56
Over 4.5
32%3.80
Under 3.5
45%1.46
Under 4.5
68%1.24

Match Events

6'C. RonaldoAssist: J. Cancelo
14'O. KhamrobekovHolding
17'N. Mendes
29'Goal Disallowed - FoulA. Ganiev
39'C. RonaldoAssist: B. Fernandes
46'J. Cancelo INN. Semedo out
46'P. Neto INF. Conceicao out
46'S. Nasrullaev INK. Alizhonov out
46'O. Khamrobekov INA. Mozgovoy out
60'A. NematovOG
63'Joao Felix INTrincao out
68'R. VeigaRoughing
73'A. Fayzullaev INI. Sergeev out
76'J. Neves INB. Silva out
83'Vitinha INR. Leao out
87'R. Leao
90+2'B. Karimov INR. Jiyanov out
90+2'O. Shukurov INS. Esanov out

Lineups

Portugal
4-2-3-1Coach: Roberto Martinez
Uzbekistan
3-4-2-1Coach: Fabio Cannavaro
Avg rating7.39
Avg rating6.33
Diogo Costa6.91D. Costa
João Cancelo7.320J. Cancelo
Rúben Dias7.93R. Dias
Renato Veiga7.213R. Veiga
Nuno Mendes8.925N. Mendes
João Neves7.215J. Neves
Vitinha7.623Vitinha
Pedro Neto7.318P. Neto
Bruno Fernandes8.68B. Fernandes
João Félix6.611J. Félix
Cristiano RonaldoC8.37C. Ronaldo
Abduvokhid Nematov6.212A. Nematov
Abdukodir Khusanov6.52A. Khusanov
Abdulla Abdullaev6.218A. Abdullaev
Rustam Ashurmatov5.75R. Ashurmatov
Bekhruz Karimov6.224B. Karimov
Odiljon Khamrobekov5.69O. Khamrobekov
Otabek Shukurov6.37O. Shukurov
Sherzod Nasrullaev6.313S. Nasrullaev
Azizjon Ganiev6.919A. Ganiev
Abbosbek Fayzullaev6.722A. Fayzullaev
Eldor ShomurodovC6.914E. Shomurodov

Portugal Substitutes

2Nélson Semedo46'for J. Cancelo6.6
26Francisco Conceição46'for P. Neto7.0
16Francisco Trincão63'for Joao Felix6.5
10Bernardo Silva76'for J. Neves6.7
17Rafael Leão83'for Vitinha87'7.6
12José Sá
22Rui Silva
4Tomás Araújo
5Diogo Dalot
14Gonçalo Inácio
6Matheus Nunes
24Samú Costa
21Rúben Neves
19Gonçalo Guedes
9Gonçalo Ramos

Uzbekistan Substitutes

3Khozhiakbar Alizhonov46'for S. Nasrullaev5.9
6Akmal Mozgovoy46'for O. Khamrobekov6.5
21Igor Sergeev73'for A. Fayzullaev6.7
10Ruslanbek Jiyanov90+2'for B. Karimov
23Sherzod Esanov90+2'for O. Shukurov
16Botirali Ergashev
1Utkir Yusupov
25Avazbek Ulmasaliyev
4Farrukh Sayfiev
26Jakhongir Urozov
15Umarbek Eshmuradov
20Azizbek Amanov
8Jamshid Iskandarov
17Dostonbek Khamdamov
11Oston Urunov

Match Stats

PortugalUzbekistan
66%Ball Possession34%
3Corner Kicks2
1Yellow Cards1
17Total Shots7
9Shots on Goal2
5Shots off Goal2
12Shots Inside Box4
5Shots Outside Box3
3Blocked Shots3
14Fouls15
2Offsides2
2Goalkeeper Saves4
624Total Passes327
561Passes Accurate262
90%Pass Accuracy80%

Team Comparison

PortugalPortugal
UzbekistanUzbekistan
1845Elo Rating 1624
2.01Attack 0.96
1.94Defense 0.46
86%Hit Rate 17%
17.3Shots per Game 7.7
6.1Shots on Target 2.4
5.7Corners per Game 3.5
2.5Cards per Game 1.4

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+221 Elo

Game State Tendencies

PortugalPortugal
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
UzbekistanUzbekistan
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Recent Form

PortugalPortugal
7W2D1L
17/06/2026
PortugalCongo DR
11
D
10/06/2026
PortugalNigeria
21
W
06/06/2026
PortugalChile
21
W
16/11/2025
PortugalArmenia
91
W
13/11/2025
Rep. Of IrelandPortugal
20
L
14/10/2025
PortugalHungary
22
D
11/10/2025
PortugalRep. Of Ireland
10
W
09/09/2025
HungaryPortugal
23
W
06/09/2025
ArmeniaPortugal
05
W
08/06/2025
PortugalSpain
5232
W
UzbekistanUzbekistan
4W2D4L
18/06/2026
UzbekistanColombia
13
L
08/06/2026
NetherlandsUzbekistan
21
L
02/06/2026
CanadaUzbekistan
20
L
10/06/2025
UzbekistanQatar
30
W
05/06/2025
United Arab EmiratesUzbekistan
00
D
25/03/2025
IranUzbekistan
22
D
20/03/2025
UzbekistanKyrgyzstan
10
W
19/11/2024
North KoreaUzbekistan
01
W
14/11/2024
QatarUzbekistan
32
L
15/10/2024
UzbekistanUnited Arab Emirates
10
W

Referee Profile

Jalal Jayed112 matches

3.43Cards per match
3.36Yellow cards per match
0.07Red cards per match
30.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Jalal Jayed3.43
Other referees3.76

3.43 cards a match, 0.33 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.76).

Cards come from 14 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

World Cup 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1ColombiaColombia32104:1+37DWW
2PortugalPortugal31206:1+55DWD
3Congo DRCongo DR31114:3+14WLD
4UzbekistanUzbekistan30032:11-90LLL
#TeamMPGPts
1ColombiaColombia34:17
2PortugalPortugal36:15
3Congo DRCongo DR34:34
4UzbekistanUzbekistan32:110

About the Portugal vs Uzbekistan forecast

This is a World Cup cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Portugal and Uzbekistan in the World Cup table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Portugal are 2nd in the World Cup, 5 points ahead of Uzbekistan in 4th. League goal record so far: Portugal 6-1, Uzbekistan 2-11. The full standings are on the World Cup Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.0 out of 10 by our context model. Portugal have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Portugal and Uzbekistan have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.