Sudan vs Ethiopia Prediction

Sudan
1-0
Finished
HT 0-0
Ethiopia
Juba Stadium, Juba·Washington Dolo 25/09/2026
SudanSudan
1-0
Finished
EthiopiaEthiopia

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
80%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.18
SignalHIGHModel52%SurpriseMediumGap-5.5%
Sudan Rest
265 days
Ethiopia Rest
108 days

Sudan vs Ethiopia: the result in context

Sudan beat Ethiopia 1-0 in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification on 25 Sep 2026. That went against recent form: Ethiopia had won 3 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Sudan.

Sudan have had the better of this fixture, winning 3 of the 4 previous meetings, which averaged 2.0 goals a game.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
52%1.80
X
29%3.15
2
19%4.50
Double Chance
1X
81%1.18
X2
48%1.90
Both Teams to Score

Both teams to score forecasts not available for this match

Goals

Goal forecasts not available for this match

Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

55'mesfin taffese
61'mesfin taffese INtilahuni fitsumi out
61'Bakhit Khamis INAhmed Yousif Tabanja out
69'Aamir Abdallah Yunis INYasir Mozamil out
69'Ammar Kamaleldin Taifour INSalaheldin Adil Ahmed Alhassan out
76'abed yalew INCarlose damtew out
81'samuel yohannes
83'Gathuoch Panom
85'samuel bereket
86'Mohamed Eisa
90+2'

Lineups

Sudan
4-4-2Coach: K. Appiah
Ethiopia
4-4-2Coach: Y. Sahle
9999M. Mustafa
S. Barglan96S. Barglan
9797A. Ali
9898M. Karshom
9595B. Khamis
Aamir Yunis Abdallah89A. Yunis Abdallah
9494A. Kamaleldin Taifour
9292W. Khidir
9393A. Omer
M. Eisa91M. Eisa
9090M. Hussein Ali
11A. Ambisa
44b. bekele
1414s. yohannes
1616y. bayeh
1515s. bereket
99m. taffese
66G. Panom
2121H. tekeste
1919C. Gugsa
A. Yalew10A. Yalew
88C. Markneh

Sudan Substitutes

Ethiopia Substitutes

11tilahuni fitsumi61'replaced by mesfin taffese
23Firew Getahun
17Biniyam Fikru
18Carlose damtew76'replaced by abed yalew
20Bereket Waza
2Rohobot Selalo
12Dukele Dawa Hotessa
13Abduselam Yusuf
5Habtamu gulilat
3Ramkel James
7Binyam Belay
22said habtamu

Match Stats

SudanEthiopia
5Corner Kicks5
1Yellow Cards4
13Total Shots13
2Shots on Goal5
7Shots off Goal4
5Shots Inside Box8
8Shots Outside Box5
4Blocked Shots4
5Fouls13
2Offsides2
5Goalkeeper Saves1
460Total Passes284
397Passes Accurate215
13Free Kicks3

Team Comparison

SudanSudan
EthiopiaEthiopia
1469Elo Rating 1230
0.50Attack 0.19
1.29Defense 1.30
27%Hit Rate 0%
9.7Shots per Game 11.9
2.0Shots on Target 2.8
3.7Corners per Game 5.0
1.7Cards per Game 2.6

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+239 Elo
📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

SudanSudan
  • No tendency data available
EthiopiaEthiopia
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches

Head to Head

Last 4 meetings, all competitions

SudanSudan3Wins · 75%
Draws125%
EthiopiaEthiopia0Wins · 0%
2.0Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored2 of 4
25%3+ goals1 of 4

Previous meetings

African Nations Championship - Qualification25/12/2024
SudanEthiopia
21
African Nations Championship - Qualification22/12/2024
EthiopiaSudan
02
African Nations Championship18/08/2017
SudanEthiopia
10
African Nations Championship13/08/2017
EthiopiaSudan
11

Recent Form

SudanSudan
1W1D8L
03/01/2026
SenegalSudan
31
L
31/12/2025
SudanBurkina Faso
02
L
28/12/2025
Equatorial GuineaSudan
01
W
24/12/2025
AlgeriaSudan
30
L
14/10/2025
Congo DRSudan
10
L
10/10/2025
SudanMauritania
00
D
09/09/2025
TogoSudan
10
L
05/09/2025
SenegalSudan
20
L
29/08/2025
SudanSenegal
2141
L
26/08/2025
MadagascarSudan
1000
L
EthiopiaEthiopia
5W1D4L
09/06/2026
EthiopiaMalawi
11
D
06/06/2026
EthiopiaMalawi
10
W
31/03/2026
EthiopiaSao Tome and Principe
10
W
27/03/2026
Sao Tome and PrincipeEthiopia
03
W
12/10/2025
Burkina FasoEthiopia
31
L
08/10/2025
EthiopiaGuinea-Bissau
10
W
09/09/2025
Sierra LeoneEthiopia
20
L
05/09/2025
EgyptEthiopia
20
L
24/03/2025
EthiopiaDjibouti
61
W
21/03/2025
EthiopiaEgypt
02
L

League Table

Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification 2027
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1SenegalSenegal21102:1+14WD
2MozambiqueMozambique21105:2+34WD
3SudanSudan21012:4-23LW
4EthiopiaEthiopia20020:2-20WW
#TeamMPGPts
1SenegalSenegal22:14
2MozambiqueMozambique25:24
3SudanSudan22:43
4EthiopiaEthiopia20:20
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About the Sudan vs Ethiopia forecast

This is a Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification

More Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification fixtures and forecasts are on the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.