Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Lexington Prediction

USL ChampionshipUSA USA · Group Stage
Tampa Bay Rowdies
1-4
Finished
HT 0-3
Lexington
Al Lang Stadium 05/07/2026
Tampa Bay RowdiesTampa Bay Rowdies
1-4
Finished
LexingtonLexington

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
3.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
81%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.40
SignalSTRONGModel51%SurpriseMediumGap+9.8%
Tampa Bay Rowdies Rest
13 days
Lexington Rest
13 days

Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Lexington: result, form and history

Lexington beat Tampa Bay Rowdies 4-1 in the USL Championship on 4 Jul 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
54%1.57
X
28%3.90
2
18%4.95
Double Chance
1X
82%1.12
X2
46%2.20
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%1.73
No
56%1.97
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.2 + 1 = 2.20
Over 1.5
64%1.21
Over 2.5
39%1.70
Over 3.5
19%2.71
Under 1.5
36%3.96
Under 2.5
61%2.05
Under 3.5
81%1.40
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

12'X. ZengueAssist: B. P. Rodrigues
14'Nick FirminoAssist: P. Goodrum
37'R. Cicerone(Penalty missed)
42'M. HemmiUnsportsmanlike conduct
44'M. EppsAssist: A. Molloy
45+3'M. SchneiderUnsportsmanlike conduct
45+3'L. ArcherUnsportsmanlike conduct
46'D. Acoff ING. Vivi Quesada out
46'L. Archer INY. Leerman out
46'L. Perez INPedro Becker out
63'M. Epps INM. Adedokun out
70'X. Zengue INJ. Hafferty out
70'B. P. Rodrigues INT. Scott out
71'M. Myers INE. Conway out
76'R. Cicerone INM. Micaletto out
78'G. Vivi QuesadaAssist: C. Ostrem
86'T. ScottAssist: A. Molloy
90'N. DossantosFoul
90+1'P. Goodrum INM. Henry-Scott out

Team Comparison

Tampa Bay RowdiesTampa Bay Rowdies
LexingtonLexington
1612Elo Rating 1540
1.52Attack 2.87
2.47Defense 1.06
69%Hit Rate 54%

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend
💎Value Analysis Identified

Game State Tendencies

Tampa Bay RowdiesTampa Bay Rowdies
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.2 vs 0.3 in first half)
LexingtonLexington
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.8 vs 1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

1 previous meeting, all competitions

Tampa Bay RowdiesTampa Bay Rowdies0Wins · 0%
Draws1100%
LexingtonLexington0Wins · 0%
2.0Avg Goals
100%Both teams scored1 of 1
0%3+ goals0 of 1

Previous meetings

USL Championship25/05/2025
LexingtonTampa Bay Rowdies
11

Recent Form

Tampa Bay RowdiesTampa Bay Rowdies
7W2D1L
21/06/2026
BrooklynTampa Bay Rowdies
02
W14/06/2026
Tampa Bay RowdiesHartford Athletic
01
L11/06/2026
Tampa Bay RowdiesCharleston Battery
22
D
07/06/2026
Sporting JAXTampa Bay Rowdies
02
W
31/05/2026
Louisville CityTampa Bay Rowdies
02
W
24/05/2026
Tampa Bay RowdiesPhoenix Rising
30
W
21/05/2026
New Mexico UnitedTampa Bay Rowdies
01
W
17/05/2026
Miami FCTampa Bay Rowdies
14
W
10/05/2026
Rhode IslandTampa Bay Rowdies
11
D
03/05/2026
Tampa Bay RowdiesIndy Eleven
10
W
LexingtonLexington
4W2D4L
21/06/2026
LexingtonIndy Eleven
6070
L
14/06/2026
LexingtonSan Antonio
20
W
07/06/2026
Detroit CityLexington
1131
W
31/05/2026
El Paso LocomotiveLexington
14
W
24/05/2026
Indy ElevenLexington
31
L
09/05/2026
LexingtonMonterey Bay
31
W
03/05/2026
Las Vegas LightsLexington
21
L
19/04/2026
Orange County SCLexington
00
D
12/04/2026
LexingtonRhode Island
13
L
04/04/2026
Colorado SpringsLexington
11
D

League Table

USL Championship 2026

USL Championship — Group 1

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Tampa Bay RowdiesTampa Bay Rowdies30187552:26+2661WWWLD
2Charleston BatteryCharleston Battery30165956:35+2153WWDLW
3Detroit CityDetroit City30149734:21+1351DLWWW
4Louisville CityLouisville City30138951:43+847DWWWD
5Pittsburgh RiverhoundsPittsburgh Riverhounds301361133:30+345WDWLL
6Hartford AthleticHartford Athletic301013735:33+243WLDLD
7Rhode IslandRhode Island301261242:33+942LDWLW
8Miami FCMiami FC30991239:49-1036LLWWW
9Indy ElevenIndy Eleven30971435:41-634LLLDL
10Loudoun UnitedLoudoun United306131138:48-1031WDLWD
11Birmingham LegionBirmingham Legion306121240:46-630LWDWL
12BrooklynBrooklyn30561934:63-2921LLWLL
13Sporting JAXSporting JAX30352232:78-4614LLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Tampa Bay RowdiesTampa Bay Rowdies3052:2661
2Charleston BatteryCharleston Battery3056:3553
3Detroit CityDetroit City3034:2151
4Louisville CityLouisville City3051:4347
5Pittsburgh RiverhoundsPittsburgh Riverhounds3033:3045
6Hartford AthleticHartford Athletic3035:3343
7Rhode IslandRhode Island3042:3342
8Miami FCMiami FC3039:4936
9Indy ElevenIndy Eleven3035:4134
10Loudoun UnitedLoudoun United3038:4831
11Birmingham LegionBirmingham Legion3040:4630
12BrooklynBrooklyn3034:6321
13Sporting JAXSporting JAX3032:7814

USL Championship — Group 2

#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1New Mexico UnitedNew Mexico United30157845:34+1152WLWWL
2Sacramento RepublicSacramento Republic301312542:28+1451WWDDW
3El Paso LocomotiveEl Paso Locomotive301551048:38+1050LLWLD
4LexingtonLexington301461057:39+1848DWDWW
5Colorado SpringsColorado Springs30138944:38+647WWDDD
6San AntonioSan Antonio301112732:30+245WWDLD
7FC TulsaFC Tulsa301110934:31+343LLDDW
8Phoenix RisingPhoenix Rising3010101045:46-140DWWLL
9Orange County SCOrange County SC301091139:49-1039LLLLW
10Oakland RootsOakland Roots309111039:40-138LWDDW
11Las Vegas LightsLas Vegas Lights301061441:48-736LLLWL
12Monterey BayMonterey Bay30661832:52-2024WLLWL
#TeamMPGPts
1New Mexico UnitedNew Mexico United3045:3452
2Sacramento RepublicSacramento Republic3042:2851
3El Paso LocomotiveEl Paso Locomotive3048:3850
4LexingtonLexington3057:3948
5Colorado SpringsColorado Springs3044:3847
6San AntonioSan Antonio3032:3045
7FC TulsaFC Tulsa3034:3143
8Phoenix RisingPhoenix Rising3045:4640
9Orange County SCOrange County SC3039:4939
10Oakland RootsOakland Roots3039:4038
11Las Vegas LightsLas Vegas Lights3041:4836
12Monterey BayMonterey Bay3032:5224

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About the Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Lexington forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About USL Championship

More USL Championship fixtures and forecasts are on the USL Championship Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Tampa Bay Rowdies and Lexington have met only 1 time recently, with 2.0 goals in that meeting. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.