Albania vs San Marino Prediction

Albania
2-1
Finished
HT 1-0
San Marino
Arena Kombëtare, Tirana·Mehmet Turkmen 06/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
76%Trust
BTTS
Both Teams NOT to Score
1.13
SignalHIGHModel75%SurpriseMediumGap-12.6%
Albania Rest
3 days
San Marino Rest
3 days

Albania vs San Marino: the result in context

Albania beat San Marino 2-1 in the UEFA Nations League on 6 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: Albania had won 2 of their previous five, compared with none for San Marino.

Their 3 previous meetings averaged 3.3 goals, and not once did both teams score. Referee Mehmet Turkmen averages 3.81 cards a game, 1.03 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
93%1.02
X
4%18.25
2
3%51.00
Double Chance
1X
97%-
X2
7%12.50
Both Teams to Score
Yes
24%5.00
No
76%1.13
Goals
Projected Goals: 4 + 0.25 = 4.25
Over 1.5
87%1.05
Over 2.5
73%1.22
Over 3.5
57%1.64
Under 1.5
13%8.30
Under 2.5
27%3.90
Under 3.5
43%2.20
Corners
Projected Corners: 8.7 + 1.1 = 9.8
Over 8.5
56%1.43
Over 9.5
46%1.76
Over 10.5
35%2.23
Under 8.5
44%2.56
Under 9.5
54%1.95
Under 10.5
65%1.60
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.4 + 2.5 = 3.9
Over 3.5
56%-
Over 4.5
36%2.20
Under 3.5
44%-
Under 4.5
64%1.62

Match Events

11'Kristjan Asllani
38'F. FabbriFoul
45'Ernest Muci INAnis·Mehmeti out
51'Michele CevoliFoul
56'Arber Hoxha INMyrto Uzuni out
58'Fausto Marino Salicioni Ortiz INSamuel·Pancotti out
58'C. Meloni INLorenzo Lazzari out
59'Michele Cevoli INgiacomo benvenuti out
64'Dante Rossi INMarco pasolini out
66'Lorenzo LazzariAssist: Lorenzo·Capicchioni
71'Juljan Shehu INMirlind Daku out
71'Mario Mitaj INYlber Ramadani out
76'S. GiocondiFoul
84'Nicholas GiacopettiFoul
86'Lorenzo·Capicchioni ING. Bugli out
90'Penalty confirmedArdian Ismajli
90+2'Ardian IsmajliDissent
90+3'Kristjan Asllani(Penalty)

Lineups

Albania
4-3-3Coach: R. Maran
San Marino
4-4-2Coach: R. Cevoli
Avg rating6.96
Avg rating6.21
M. Dajsinani6.923M. Dajsinani
E. Hysaj7.24E. Hysaj
B. Djimsiti7.06B. Djimsiti
A. Ismajli7.118A. Ismajli
M. Mitaj7.03M. Mitaj
J. Shehu6.516J. Shehu
K. Asllani8.28K. Asllani
S. Pilios7.122S. Pilios
E. Muçi6.810E. Muçi
R. Manaj6.77R. Manaj
A. Hoxha6.821A. Hoxha
11E. Colombo
44F. Fabbri
M. Cevoli5.95M. Cevoli
D. Rossi6.36D. Rossi
S. Giocondi5.43S. Giocondi
L. Capicchioni6.68L. Capicchioni
1616C. Meloni
1818B. Enea Della
1010S. Zannoni
1414F. Marino Salicioni Ortiz
N. Giacopetti6.411N. Giacopetti

Albania Substitutes

2K. Cake
19M. Daku71'for Juljan Shehu6.5
5L. Hasa
15M. Kumbulla
9A. Mehmeti45'for Ernest Muci6.7
20Y. Ramadani71'for Mario Mitaj7.4
17T. Seferi
14C. Shpendi
1S. Simoni
12A. Taho
11M. Uzuni56'for Arber Hoxha6.6
13N. Aliji

San Marino Substitutes

15M. Pasolini64'for Dante Rossi6.1
19S. Pancotti58'replaced by Fausto Marino Salicioni Ortiz6.4
20G. Bugli86'replaced by Lorenzo·Capicchioni
13Lyes Hoël
9Nicholas Protti
7G. Capicchioni
22M. Mularoni
21L. Lazzari58'replaced by C. Meloni66'7.7
17A. Golinucci
23M. De Angelis
2G. Benvenuti59'for Michele Cevoli6.1
12A. Tosi

Match Stats

AlbaniaSan Marino
70%Ball Possession30%
10Corner Kicks1
1Yellow Cards4
26Total Shots8
7Shots on Goal3
12Shots off Goal3
21Shots Inside Box3
5Shots Outside Box5
7Blocked Shots2
12Fouls21
0Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves5
559Total Passes255
495Passes Accurate166
89%Pass Accuracy65%

Team Comparison

AlbaniaAlbania
San MarinoSan Marino
1534Elo Rating 1059
1.82Attack 0.41
1.99Defense 0.00
63%Hit Rate 0%
17.4Shots per Game 6.2
5.4Shots on Target 2.1
6.3Corners per Game 2.2
2.4Cards per Game 3.3

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+475 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy4.26 goals
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

AlbaniaAlbania
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.4 vs 0.5 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
San MarinoSan Marino
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 3 meetings, all competitions

AlbaniaAlbania3Wins · 100%
Draws00%
San MarinoSan Marino0Wins · 0%
3.3Avg Goals
0%Both teams scored0 of 3
67%3+ goals2 of 3

Previous meetings

UEFA Nations League29/09/2026
San MarinoAlbania
03
World Cup - Qualification Europe08/09/2021
AlbaniaSan Marino
50
World Cup - Qualification Europe31/03/2021
San MarinoAlbania
02

Recent Form

AlbaniaAlbania
5W0D5L
03/10/2026
FinlandAlbania
21
L
29/09/2026
San MarinoAlbania
03
W
26/09/2026
AlbaniaBelarus
20
W
06/06/2026
AlbaniaLuxembourg
01
L
03/06/2026
AlbaniaIsrael
01
L
26/03/2026
PolandAlbania
21
L
16/11/2025
AlbaniaEngland
02
L
13/11/2025
AndorraAlbania
01
W
11/10/2025
SerbiaAlbania
01
W
09/09/2025
AlbaniaLatvia
10
W
San MarinoSan Marino
0W0D10L
03/10/2026
BelarusSan Marino
40
L
29/09/2026
San MarinoAlbania
03
L
26/09/2026
San MarinoFinland
07
L
09/06/2026
AzerbaijanSan Marino
21
L
05/06/2026
San MarinoBangladesh
12
L
18/11/2025
RomaniaSan Marino
71
L
12/10/2025
San MarinoCyprus
04
L
09/10/2025
AustriaSan Marino
100
L
06/09/2025
San MarinoBosnia & Herzegovina
06
L
10/06/2025
San MarinoAustria
04
L

Referee Profile

Mehmet Turkmen109 matches

3.81Cards per match
3.61Yellow cards per match
0.19Red cards per match
23.2Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Mehmet Turkmen3.81
Other referees4.84

3.81 cards a match, 1.03 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.84).

Cards come from 77 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1AlbaniaAlbania43018:3+59WLWW
2BelarusBelarus42115:2+37WWDL
3FinlandFinland42119:2+77LWDW
4San MarinoSan Marino40041:16-150LLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1AlbaniaAlbania48:39
2BelarusBelarus45:27
3FinlandFinland49:27
4San MarinoSan Marino41:160
Promotion

About the Albania vs San Marino forecast

This is a UEFA Nations League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Albania and San Marino in the UEFA Nations League table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Albania are 1st in the UEFA Nations League, 9 points ahead of San Marino in 4th. League goal record so far: Albania 8-3, San Marino 1-16. The full standings are on the UEFA Nations League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Albania have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.