Croatia vs Spain Prediction

Croatia
1-2
Finished
HT 1-0
Spain
Stadion Poljud, Split·Erik Lambrechts 06/10/2026
CroatiaCroatia
1-2
Finished
SpainSpain

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
78%Trust
1X2
Away Win
1.29
SignalHIGHModel75%SurpriseMediumGap+0.3%
Value Analysis
66%Trust
Home Cards
Home Cards Under 2.5
1.55
SignalGOODModel66%SurpriseMediumGap+3.8%
Croatia Rest
3 days
Spain Rest
3 days

Croatia vs Spain: the result in context

Spain beat Croatia 2-1 in the UEFA Nations League on 6 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: Spain had won 5 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Croatia.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.6 a game across 8 meetings, with both teams scoring in 4. Spain tend to win more corners, 5.7 a game to 3.1 for Croatia.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
6%9.77
X
15%6.00
2
79%1.29
Double Chance
1X
21%3.75
X2
94%1.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%1.74
No
50%1.98
Goals
Projected Goals: 0.51 + 2.21 = 2.72
Over 1.5
82%1.11
Over 2.5
63%1.44
Over 3.5
43%2.12
Under 1.5
18%5.85
Under 2.5
37%2.70
Under 3.5
57%1.73
Corners
Projected Corners: 3.5 + 5.1 = 8.7
Over 8.5
54%1.73
Over 9.5
44%2.19
Over 10.5
32%2.96
Under 8.5
46%2.00
Under 9.5
56%1.59
Under 10.5
68%1.32
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 1.4 = 3.5
Over 3.5
45%1.98
Over 4.5
27%2.82
Under 3.5
55%1.80
Under 4.5
73%1.41

Match Events

14'Slaven BilicDissent
17'Ivan Perišić
22'Ivan PerišićFoul
45'Alejandro Baena Rodríguez INMikel Merino out
61'Mikel MerinoAssist: Daniel Olmo Carvajal
65'Luka ModrićFoul
65'Igor Matanovic INDion Drena Beljo out
66'Luka Modrić INPetar Sučić out
66'Rodrigo Hernandez CascanteFoul
71'Rodrigo Hernandez Cascante INMartín Zubimendi out
71'Daniel Olmo Carvajal INFermín López out
71'Nikola Vlašić INMartin Baturina out
78'Lamine Yamal INVíctor Muñoz out
79'Ivan Perišić
87'Pedri INYeremy Pino out
88'Mateo Kovačić INMario Pašalić out
88'Mikel MerinoAssist: Martín Zubimendi
90+2'Víctor MuñozFoul

Lineups

Croatia
4-5-1Coach: S. Bilić
Spain
4-2-3-1Coach: Luis de la Fuente
Avg rating6.35
Avg rating6.86
D. Livaković5.71D. Livaković
J. Stanišić6.62J. Stanišić
J. Šutalo6.86J. Šutalo
L. Vušković6.45L. Vušković
J. Gvardiol6.54J. Gvardiol
N. Vlašić6.213N. Vlašić
L. Modrić6.510L. Modrić
K. Jakić6.718K. Jakić
M. Kovačić6.38M. Kovačić
I. Perišić6.814I. Perišić
I. Matanović6.320I. Matanović
Unai Simón7.523U. Simón
Marc Pubill6.612M. Pubill
Pau Cubarsí Paredes6.85P. Cubarsí Paredes
Aymeric Laporte7.114A. Laporte
Marc Cucurella7.322M. Cucurella
Rodri6.916Rodri
Pedri7.120Pedri
Lamine Yamal6.719L. Yamal
Dani Olmo6.910D. Olmo
Álex Baena6.515Á. Baena
Mikel Oyarzabal6.421M. Oyarzabal

Croatia Substitutes

7D. Beljo65'for Igor Matanovic6.3
22J. Mišić
19Marco Pasalic
3M. Pongračić
15Mario Pasalic88'for Mateo Kovačić6.1
12I. Pandur
16M. Baturina71'for Nikola Vlašić5.9
21L. Sučić
11A. Budimir
23D. Kotarski
17P. Sučić66'for Luka Modrić6.1
9A. Kramarić

Spain Substitutes

4Iván Fresneda
17Fran García
2D. Huijsen
3Robin Le Normand
13Josep Martínez
6Mikel Merino45'for Alejandro Baena Rodríguez61'88'8.9
7Víctor Muñoz78'for Lamine Yamal90+2'6.3
11Yeremy Pino87'for Pedri6.2
1David Raya
18Martín Zubimendi71'for Rodrigo Hernandez Cascante6.4
9Fermín71'for Daniel Olmo Carvajal6.2
8Roberto Fernández

Match Stats

CroatiaSpain
28%Ball Possession72%
3Corner Kicks6
1Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
10Total Shots10
5Shots on Goal3
3Shots off Goal3
9Shots Inside Box7
1Shots Outside Box3
2Blocked Shots4
12Fouls10
0Offsides2
1Goalkeeper Saves4
300Total Passes777
231Passes Accurate696
10Free Kicks10

Team Comparison

CroatiaCroatia
SpainSpain
1731Elo Rating 1983
0.94Attack 2.50
0.00Defense 1.98
17%Hit Rate 86%
10.9Shots per Game 14.5
3.6Shots on Target 6.7
3.1Corners per Game 5.7
2.0Cards per Game 1.0

AI Insights

📉Home Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

CroatiaCroatia
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
SpainSpain
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.5 vs 1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 8 meetings, all competitions

CroatiaCroatia2Wins · 25%
Draws225%
SpainSpain4Wins · 50%
3.6Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored4 of 8
75%3+ goals6 of 8

Previous meetings

UEFA Nations League29/09/2026
SpainCroatia
41
Euro Championship15/06/2024
SpainCroatia
30
UEFA Nations League18/06/2023
CroatiaSpain
4050
Euro Championship28/06/2021
CroatiaSpain
3353
UEFA Nations League15/11/2018
CroatiaSpain
32
UEFA Nations League11/09/2018
SpainCroatia
60
Euro Championship21/06/2016
CroatiaSpain
21
Euro Championship18/06/2012
CroatiaSpain
01

League Table

UEFA Nations League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1SpainSpain440012:5+712WWWW
2EnglandEngland430114:3+119WWWL
3CroatiaCroatia41034:14-103LLLW
4CzechiaCzechia40042:10-80LLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1SpainSpain412:512
2EnglandEngland414:39
3CroatiaCroatia44:143
4CzechiaCzechia42:100

About the Croatia vs Spain forecast

This is a UEFA Nations League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Croatia and Spain in the UEFA Nations League table

This is a meeting of two top-four sides: Spain are 1st in the UEFA Nations League, 9 points ahead of Croatia in 3rd. League goal record so far: Croatia 4-14, Spain 12-5. The full standings are on the UEFA Nations League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.