AS Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction

AS Roma
4-0
Finished
HT 1-0
Fiorentina
Stadio Olimpico, Rome·Matteo Marcenaro, Italy 24/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
82%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.29
SignalSTRONGModel64%SurpriseMediumGap+4.4%
Value Analysis
70%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.70
SignalGOODModel64%SurpriseMediumGap+14.5%
AS Roma Rest
9 days
Fiorentina Rest
9 days

AS Roma vs Fiorentina: result, form and history

AS Roma beat Fiorentina 4-0 in the Serie A on 24 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 10 previous meetings averaged 3.1 goals, and both sides scored in 6 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
66%1.70
X
22%3.83
2
12%5.00
Double Chance
1X
88%1.18
X2
34%2.13
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%1.83
No
49%1.89
Goals
Projected Goals: 2.28 + 0.85 = 3.13
Over 1.5
82%1.29
Over 2.5
58%1.91
Over 3.5
34%3.25
Under 1.5
18%3.50
Under 2.5
42%1.91
Under 3.5
66%1.33
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.5 + 3.8 = 9.3
Over 8.5
58%1.70
Over 9.5
46%2.19
Over 10.5
34%2.87
Under 8.5
42%2.05
Under 9.5
54%1.60
Under 10.5
66%1.36
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 3.2 = 5.1
Over 3.5
72%1.38
Over 4.5
55%1.92
Under 3.5
28%2.83
Under 4.5
45%1.82

Match Events

27'D. MalenAssist: P. Dybala
30'N. FagioliTripping
39'M. HermosoFoul
49'M. KoneHolding
52'D. MalenAssist: P. Dybala
53'R. Mora INM. Soule out
60'D. MalenAssist: P. Dybala
62'M. Brescianini INA. Jimenez out
62'N. Fagioli INC. Inao Oulai out
63'F. Mastantuono INM. Kean out
63'M. PellegrinoUnsportsmanlike conduct
68'D. Malen INS. Castro out
68'M. Hermoso INK. Koulierakis out
74'A. Atta INR. Mandragora out
79'P. Dybala INN. El Aynaoui out
79'M. Kone INN. Pisilli out
80'Joao Mario INV. Valdepenas out
86'N. Pisilli

Lineups

AS Roma
3-4-2-1Coach: Piero Gasperini Gian
Fiorentina
4-3-2-1Coach: Fabio Grosso
Avg rating7.37
Avg rating6.13
Mile Svilar6.999M. Svilar
Gianluca Mancini7.223G. Mancini
Evan Ndicka7.55E. Ndicka
Mario Hermoso6.922M. Hermoso
Emanuele Lulli6.977E. Lulli
Bryan CristanteC8.24B. Cristante
Manu Koné7.217M. Koné
Wesley7.243Wesley
Paulo Dybala9.321P. Dybala
Rodrigo Mora6.786R. Mora
Donyell Malen10.014D. Malen
David De GeaC5.643D. De Gea
Dodô5.62Dodô
Radu Drăguşin6.23R. Drăguşin
Luca Ranieri5.66L. Ranieri
João Mário6.317J. Mário
Cher Ndour6.227C. Ndour
Nicolò Fagioli6.244N. Fagioli
Marco Brescianini6.24M. Brescianini
Franco Mastantuono6.330F. Mastantuono
Arthur Atta6.314A. Atta
Mateo Pellegrino5.932M. Pellegrino

AS Roma Substitutes

18Matías Soulé53'for R. Mora6.7
3Konstantinos Koulierakis68'for M. Hermoso6.6
9Santiago Castro68'for D. Malen6.3
8Neil El Aynaoui79'for P. Dybala6.7
61Niccolò Pisilli79'for M. Kone86'7.6
70Giorgio De Marzi
95Pierluigi Gollini
20Nahuel Molina
87Daniele Ghilardi
24Jan Ziółkowski
78Robinio Vaz

Fiorentina Substitutes

20Álex Jiménez62'for M. Brescianini6.2
42Christ Inao Oulaï62'for N. Fagioli6.9
9Moise Kean63'for F. Mastantuono6.5
8Rolando Mandragora74'for A. Atta5.9
53Oliver Christensen
19Luca Lezzerini
33Viery
71Eman Košpo
5Marin Pongračić
21Víctor Valdepeñas6.2
72Brando Mazzeo
80Giovanni Fabbian
70Federico Croci
11Albert Guðmundsson

Match Stats

AS RomaFiorentina
61%Ball Possession39%
2Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards2
17Total Shots9
8Shots on Goal4
6Shots off Goal5
13Shots Inside Box3
4Shots Outside Box6
3Blocked Shots0
15Fouls11
1Offsides1
4Goalkeeper Saves4
539Total Passes343
478Passes Accurate285
89%Pass Accuracy83%

Team Comparison

AS RomaAS Roma
FiorentinaFiorentina
1935Elo Rating 1712
2.61Attack 1.75
1.53Defense 1.26
42%Hit Rate 31%
18.9Shots per Game 16.2
5.8Shots on Target 5.9
6.9Corners per Game 5.7
2.5Cards per Game 2.3

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+223 Elo
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.13 goals
📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

AS RomaAS Roma
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2 vs 0.6 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
FiorentinaFiorentina
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.7 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

AS RomaAS Roma5Wins · 50%
Draws220%
FiorentinaFiorentina3Wins · 30%
3.1Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10

Previous meetings

Serie A04/05/2026
AS RomaFiorentina
40
Serie A05/10/2025
FiorentinaAS Roma
12
Serie A04/05/2025
AS RomaFiorentina
10
Serie A27/10/2024
FiorentinaAS Roma
51
Serie A10/03/2024
FiorentinaAS Roma
22
Serie A10/12/2023
AS RomaFiorentina
11
Serie A27/05/2023
FiorentinaAS Roma
21
Serie A15/01/2023
AS RomaFiorentina
20
Serie A09/05/2022
FiorentinaAS Roma
20
Serie A22/08/2021
AS RomaFiorentina
31

Recent Form

AS RomaAS Roma
5W3D2L
15/08/2026
Borussia DortmundAS Roma
22
D
08/08/2026
BrightonAS Roma
30
L
04/08/2026
Newport CountyAS Roma
14
W
01/08/2026
CardiffAS Roma
41
L
26/07/2026
CannesAS Roma
33
D
17/05/2026
AS RomaLazio
20
W
10/05/2026
ParmaAS Roma
23
W
04/05/2026
AS RomaFiorentina
40
W
25/04/2026
BolognaAS Roma
02
W
18/04/2026
AS RomaAtalanta
11
D
FiorentinaFiorentina
5W4D1L
14/08/2026
FiorentinaBenevento
41
W
06/08/2026
FiorentinaDeportivo La Coruna
11
D
01/08/2026
Real MadridFiorentina
22
D
29/07/2026
WatfordFiorentina
01
W
25/07/2026
QPRFiorentina
32
L
22/07/2026
FiorentinaGubbio
10
W
19/07/2026
FiorentinaFiorentina U20
81
W
22/05/2026
FiorentinaAtalanta
11
D
17/05/2026
JuventusFiorentina
02
W
10/05/2026
FiorentinaGenoa
00
D

Referee Profile

Matteo Marcenaro122 matches

4.91Cards per match
4.68Yellow cards per match
0.23Red cards per match
26.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Matteo Marcenaro4.91
Other referees4.67

4.91 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.67).

Cards come from 97 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1InterInter981025:10+1525WWWWD
2LazioLazio981022:7+1525WWWWW
3AS RomaAS Roma963023:8+1521WDWDD
4ComoComo962117:8+920WWWDL
5AC MilanAC Milan953118:11+718LWWDW
6FrosinoneFrosinone842217:13+414DWLWD
7JuventusJuventus842211:8+314WLDWL
8TorinoTorino941414:14013LWWWD
9CagliariCagliari94148:13-513LLLDW
10NapoliNapoli832313:10+311DLWDW
11BolognaBologna932412:12011WWLWD
12AtalantaAtalanta831414:15-110DLWLL
13LecceLecce83059:14-59LWLLW
14SassuoloSassuolo922514:22-88LLLDL
15MonzaMonza821515:18-37LWLWL
16GenoaGenoa82156:13-77WLWLD
17UdineseUdinese91269:18-95DLLLL
18ParmaParma91265:15-105DLLLW
19FiorentinaFiorentina81169:19-104LLLDW
20VeneziaVenezia91086:19-133LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1InterInter925:1025
2LazioLazio922:725
3AS RomaAS Roma923:821
4ComoComo917:820
5AC MilanAC Milan918:1118
6FrosinoneFrosinone817:1314
7JuventusJuventus811:814
8TorinoTorino914:1413
9CagliariCagliari98:1313
10NapoliNapoli813:1011
11BolognaBologna912:1211
12AtalantaAtalanta814:1510
13LecceLecce89:149
14SassuoloSassuolo914:228
15MonzaMonza815:187
16GenoaGenoa86:137
17UdineseUdinese99:185
18ParmaParma95:155
19FiorentinaFiorentina89:194
20VeneziaVenezia96:193
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the AS Roma vs Fiorentina forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

AS Roma and Fiorentina in the Serie A table

The table shows a wide gap: AS Roma are 3rd in the Serie A, while Fiorentina sit 19th, 17 points behind. League goal record so far: AS Roma 23-8, Fiorentina 9-19. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.