Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe Prediction

Aston Villa
6-0
Finished
HT 3-0
Fenerbahçe
Villa Park, Birmingham·Ivan Kruzliak 14/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
81%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.19
SignalSTRONGModel62%SurpriseMediumGap-3.4%
Value Analysis
64%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.75
SignalSOLIDModel64%SurpriseMediumGap+7.5%
Aston Villa Rest
4 days
Fenerbahçe Rest
4 days

Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe: the result in context

Aston Villa beat Fenerbahçe 6-0 in the UEFA Champions League on 14 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee Ivan Kruzliak averages 5.02 cards a game, 0.85 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
58%1.70
X
23%4.02
2
19%4.75
Double Chance
1X
81%1.19
X2
42%2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%1.59
No
42%2.25
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.83 + 1.2 = 3.03
Over 1.5
80%1.15
Over 2.5
58%1.57
Over 3.5
36%2.49
Under 1.5
20%4.70
Under 2.5
42%2.35
Under 3.5
64%1.55
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.6 + 3.1 = 8.7
Over 8.5
59%1.39
Over 9.5
43%1.68
Over 10.5
33%2.13
Under 8.5
41%2.67
Under 9.5
57%2.03
Under 10.5
67%1.64
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.1 = 4.3
Over 3.5
62%1.66
Over 4.5
42%2.23
Under 3.5
38%2.15
Under 4.5
58%1.61

Match Events

12'Johan Manzambi
31'Nicolas JacksonAssist: Boubacar Kamara
39'Nicolas JacksonAssist: Ross Barkley
42'Mattéo GuendouziFoul
68'Ross Barkley(Penalty)
69'Ismail Yüksek INBartuğ Elmaz out
69'Vedat Muriqi INRomelu Lukaku out
69'Mason Greenwood INNene Dorgeles out
72'Ross BarkleyAssist: Ibrahim Mbaye
73'Boubacar Kamara IN Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha out
73'Johan Manzambi INJoão Gomes out
78'Oğuz AydınFoul
78'Nicolas Jackson INTammy Abraham out
79'Ibrahim Mbaye INAlejandro Garnacho out
83'Ross Barkley INLeon Goretzka out
90'Tammy AbrahamAssist: Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha

Lineups

Aston Villa
4-2-3-1Coach: Unai Emery
Fenerbahçe
4-2-3-1Coach: İ. Kartal
Avg rating7.61
Avg rating6.18
Z. Suzuki7.81Z. Suzuki
M. Cash7.32M. Cash
V. Lindelöf7.53V. Lindelöf
Pau Torres7.614P. Torres
A. Wan-Bissaka7.329A. Wan-Bissaka
B. Kamara7.78B. Kamara
R. Barkley9.06R. Barkley
J.  McGinn7.27J. McGinn
J. Manzambi8.244J. Manzambi
I. Mbaye7.719I. Mbaye
N. Jackson9.711N. Jackson
Ederson6.631Ederson
Nélson Semedo5.427N. Semedo
M. Škriniar6.137M. Škriniar
N. Aké5.815N. Aké
A. Brown5.53A. Brown
İ. Yüksek6.35İ. Yüksek
M. Guendouzi6.06M. Guendouzi
M. Greenwood6.511M. Greenwood
İ. Kahveci7.217İ. Kahveci
O. Aydın6.470O. Aydın
V. Muriqi6.219V. Muriqi

Aston Villa Substitutes

18T. Abraham78'for Nicolas Jackson90'7.4
10E. Buendía
17A. Garnacho79'for Ibrahim Mbaye6.5
35João Gomes73'for Johan Manzambi6.9
27L. Goretzka83'for Ross Barkley6.8
5T. Mings
42J. Wright
47Alysson Edward73'for Boubacar Kamara7.1
26L. Bogarde
40M. Bizot

Fenerbahçe Substitutes

13T. Çetin
14Y. Demir
28B. Elmaz69'for Ismail Yüksek5.9
34M. Günok
91N. Kanté
9R. Lukaku69'for Vedat Muriqi6.3
22L. Mercan
77O. Mimović
45N. Dorgeles69'for Mason Greenwood6.3
21K. Peprah Oppong
7K. Aktürkoğlu

Match Stats

Aston VillaFenerbahçe
45%Ball Possession55%
9Corner Kicks7
0Yellow Cards2
20Total Shots15
11Shots on Goal4
5Shots off Goal5
11Shots Inside Box7
9Shots Outside Box8
4Blocked Shots6
12Fouls6
1Offsides3
4Goalkeeper Saves5
389Total Passes470
350Passes Accurate423
6Free Kicks11

Team Comparison

Aston VillaAston Villa
FenerbahçeFenerbahçe
1929Elo Rating 1833
2.05Attack 1.73
1.77Defense 1.01
73%Hit Rate 34%
15.8Shots per Game 13.5
5.8Shots on Target 4.5
5.1Corners per Game 4.4
2.1Cards per Game 3.0

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.03 goals
📈BTTS Trend

Game State Tendencies

Aston VillaAston Villa
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.2 vs 0.8 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
FenerbahçeFenerbahçe
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

1 previous meeting, all competitions

Aston VillaAston Villa1Wins · 100%
Draws00%
FenerbahçeFenerbahçe0Wins · 0%
1.0Avg Goals
0%Both teams scored0 of 1
0%3+ goals0 of 1

Previous meetings

UEFA Europa League22/01/2026
FenerbahçeAston Villa
01

Referee Profile

Ivan Kruzliak225 matches

5.02Cards per match
4.81Yellow cards per match
0.20Red cards per match
26.9Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Ivan Kruzliak5.02
Other referees4.17

5.02 cards a match, 0.85 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.17).

Cards come from 162 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

UEFA Champions League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain330014:5+99WWW
2Aston VillaAston Villa330012:3+99WWW
3LiverpoolLiverpool330012:7+59WWW
4Real MadridReal Madrid330010:5+59WWW
5Sporting CPSporting CP43018:4+49WLWW
6Real BetisReal Betis33007:4+39WWW
7ArsenalArsenal32106:2+47DWW
8VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart42117:4+37LDWW
9BarcelonaBarcelona320111:6+56LWW
10ComoComo320110:5+56WLW
11Manchester CityManchester City32019:5+46WLW
12Club Brugge KVClub Brugge KV32019:6+36WWL
13Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund32015:4+16WLW
14GalatasarayGalatasaray42028:9-16WWLL
15Bayern MünchenBayern München312010:5+55DDW
16AS RomaAS Roma31118:5+34WLD
17Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid31114:3+14DWL
18Shakhtar DonetskShakhtar Donetsk41124:404LLWD
19PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven31112:204WLD
20VillarrealVillarreal31028:803LWL
21InterInter31025:6-13WLL
22Manchester UnitedManchester United31025:6-13LLW
23NapoliNapoli31025:7-23WLL
24Lask LinzLask Linz31026:9-33WLL
25Sabah FASabah FA31023:6-33LWL
26FeyenoordFeyenoord31024:8-43LWL
27LensLens31023:7-43LLW
28Bodo/GlimtBodo/Glimt31024:9-53LWL
29AEK Athens FCAEK Athens FC31023:8-53LLW
30RB LeipzigRB Leipzig31023:8-53LWL
31FenerbahçeFenerbahçe30213:9-62DLD
32Slavia PrahaSlavia Praha30124:7-31DLL
33VikingViking30125:9-41LDL
34FC PortoFC Porto30032:6-40LLL
35LilleLille30034:10-60LLL
36Slovan BratislavaSlovan Bratislava30031:13-120LLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Paris Saint GermainParis Saint Germain314:59
2Aston VillaAston Villa312:39
3LiverpoolLiverpool312:79
4Real MadridReal Madrid310:59
5Sporting CPSporting CP48:49
6Real BetisReal Betis37:49
7ArsenalArsenal36:27
8VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart47:47
9BarcelonaBarcelona311:66
10ComoComo310:56
11Manchester CityManchester City39:56
12Club Brugge KVClub Brugge KV39:66
13Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund35:46
14GalatasarayGalatasaray48:96
15Bayern MünchenBayern München310:55
16AS RomaAS Roma38:54
17Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid34:34
18Shakhtar DonetskShakhtar Donetsk44:44
19PSV EindhovenPSV Eindhoven32:24
20VillarrealVillarreal38:83
21InterInter35:63
22Manchester UnitedManchester United35:63
23NapoliNapoli35:73
24Lask LinzLask Linz36:93
25Sabah FASabah FA33:63
26FeyenoordFeyenoord34:83
27LensLens33:73
28Bodo/GlimtBodo/Glimt34:93
29AEK Athens FCAEK Athens FC33:83
30RB LeipzigRB Leipzig33:83
31FenerbahçeFenerbahçe33:92
32Slavia PrahaSlavia Praha34:71
33VikingViking35:91
34FC PortoFC Porto32:60
35LilleLille34:100
36Slovan BratislavaSlovan Bratislava31:130

About the Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe forecast

This is a UEFA Champions League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Aston Villa and Fenerbahçe in the UEFA Champions League table

In the UEFA Champions League table, Aston Villa are 2nd and Fenerbahçe 31st, 7 points apart. League goal record so far: Aston Villa 12-3, Fenerbahçe 3-9. The full standings are on the UEFA Champions League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Aston Villa have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Fenerbahçe have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. Aston Villa and Fenerbahçe have met only 1 time recently, with 1.0 goals in that meeting. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.