AS Roma vs Real Madrid Prediction
World · League Stage - 2
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
6.6 / 10
AI Best Pick
67%Trust
Double Chance
Draw or Away Win
1.29
SignalSOLIDModel44%SurpriseMediumGap-10.6%
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Corners Total
Corners Under 10.5
1.57
SignalGOODModel67%SurpriseMediumGap+4.2%
AS Roma Rest
3 days
Real Madrid Rest
4 days
AS Roma vs Real Madrid: the result in context
Real Madrid beat AS Roma 4-3 in the UEFA Champions League on 14 Oct 2026. It was in line with recent form: Real Madrid had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for AS Roma.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
134%3.67
X24%4.00
242%1.94
Double Chance
1X58%1.88
X266%1.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes68%1.41
No32%2.77
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.7 + 1.37 = 3.07
Over 1.582%1.11
Over 2.562%1.43
Over 3.541%2.08
Under 1.518%5.78
Under 2.538%2.75
Under 3.559%1.76
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.3 + 3.9 = 9.3
Over 8.561%1.45
Over 9.543%1.80
Over 10.533%2.25
Under 8.539%2.45
Under 9.557%1.94
Under 10.567%1.57
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.2 = 4.3
Over 3.562%1.56
Over 4.543%2.13
Under 3.538%2.38
Under 4.557%1.67
Match Events
17'Manu Koné INNiccolò Pisilli out
20'Marten de RoonAssist: Matias Soule
25'Kylian MbappéAssist: Yan Diomande
45'Paulo Dybala INRodrigo Mora out
51'Donyell MalenAssist: Rodrigo Mora
57'Donyell MalenAssist: Matias Soule
58'Goal confirmedDonyell Malen
59'Vinícius INEndrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa out
59'Denzel Dumfries INArda Güler out
60'Gianluca ManciniFoul
63'Matias Soule INLorenzo Pellegrini out
63'Gianluca Mancini INLeonardo Balerdi out
69'Wesley Vinícius França LimaFoul
70'Aurelien Tchouameni INBernardo Silva out
78'Marc Cucurella INÁlvaro Fernández Carreras out
78'Yan Diomande INCarlos Espí out
81'Mario Hermoso INKonstantinos Koulierakis out
83'Carlos Espí
83'Goal confirmedCarlos Espí
85'Endrick Felipe Moreira de SousaAssist: Arda Güler
89'Lorenzo PellegriniFoul
90'Antonio RüdigerAssist: Arda Güler
90+5'Álvaro Fernández CarrerasFoul
Lineups
AS RomaReal Madrid
4-2-3-1Coach: José MourinhoAvg ratingAvg rating
95P. Gollini
23G. Mancini
5E. Ndicka
22Hermoso
43Wesley
15M. de Roon
17M. Koné
20N. Molina
18M. Soulé
21P. Dybala
14D. Malen
1T. Courtois
24D. Dumfries
16I. Konaté
22A. Rüdiger
17M. Cucurella
8F. Valverde
14A. Tchouaméni
25Y. Diomande
5J. Bellingham
7V. Júnior
10K. MbappéAS Roma Substitutes
77E. Lulli
86Rodrigo Mora45'for Paulo Dybala
7L. Pellegrini63'for Matias Soule89'
61N. Pisilli17'for Manu Koné
2D. Rensch
32D. Vásquez
26L. Balerdi63'for Gianluca Mancini
9S. Castro
70G. De Marzi
87D. Ghilardi
3K. Koulierakis81'for Mario Hermoso
Real Madrid Substitutes
20Bernardo Silva70'for Aurelien Tchouameni
18Álvaro Fernández78'for Marc Cucurella90+5'
21Brahim Díaz
9Endrick59'for Vinícius85'
19Carlos Espí78'for Yan Diomande83'
15A. Güler59'for Denzel Dumfries
4D. Huijsen
13A. Lunin
26Sergio Mestre
27Thiago Pitarch
12T. Alexander-Arnold
6E. Camavinga
Match Stats
AS RomaReal Madrid 54%Ball Possession46%
5Corner Kicks9
3Yellow Cards1
14Total Shots16
7Shots on Goal8
4Shots off Goal8
9Shots Inside Box11
5Shots Outside Box5
3Blocked Shots0
15Fouls8
1Offsides1
4Goalkeeper Saves4
546Total Passes462
469Passes Accurate385
8Free Kicks14
Team Comparison
AS RomaReal Madrid1935Elo Rating 2012
2.61Attack 3.08
1.53Defense 1.64
42%Hit Rate 86%
18.9Shots per Game 14.4
5.8Shots on Target 7.4
6.9Corners per Game 5.5
2.5Cards per Game 2.3
AI Insights
⚽High Goal Expectancy3.07 goals
📈BTTS Trend
📊Home Overperforming
Game State Tendencies
AS Roma- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (2 vs 0.6 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Real Madrid- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (2.2 vs 0.9 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Head to Head
Last 2 meetings, all competitions
AS Roma0Wins · 0%Draws00%
Real Madrid2Wins · 100%
2Wins · 100%2.5Avg Goals
0%Both teams scored0 of 2
50%3+ goals1 of 2
Previous meetings
27/11/2018AS RomaReal Madrid02
19/09/2018Real MadridAS Roma30
Recent Form
AS Roma5W4D1L
11/10/2026
ComoAS RomaAS Roma
Inter
TorinoAS Roma
FenerbahçeAS RomaAS Roma
Atalanta
LecceAS RomaAS Roma
Fiorentina
ComoAS Roma00
D19/09/2026AS RomaInter22
D14/09/2026TorinoAS Roma02
W10/09/2026FenerbahçeAS Roma11
D05/09/2026AS RomaAtalanta21
W31/08/2026LecceAS Roma04
W24/08/2026AS RomaFiorentina40
W15/08/2026
Borussia DortmundAS Roma
Borussia DortmundAS Roma22
D08/08/2026
BrightonAS Roma
BrightonAS Roma30
L04/08/2026
Newport CountyAS Roma
Newport CountyAS Roma14
WReal Madrid8W0D2L
10/10/2026Real Madrid
Villarreal
Atletico MadridReal Madrid
ElcheReal MadridReal Madrid
Rayo VallecanoReal MadridInter
Real BetisReal MadridReal Madrid
MalagaReal Madrid
Real Sociedad
EspanyolReal Madrid
Real MadridVillarreal10
W20/09/2026Atletico MadridReal Madrid21
L15/09/2026ElcheReal Madrid23
W12/09/2026Real MadridRayo Vallecano41
W08/09/2026Real MadridInter21
W04/09/2026Real BetisReal Madrid10
L30/08/2026Real MadridMalaga40
W26/08/2026Real MadridReal Sociedad41
W22/08/2026EspanyolReal Madrid12
W16/08/2026
FC Schalke 04Real Madrid
FC Schalke 04Real Madrid03
WReferee Profile
4.29Cards per match
4.05Yellow cards per match
0.25Red cards per match
23.2Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
4.30 cards a match, 0.26 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.04).
Cards come from 219 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14:5 | +9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Aston Villa | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:3 | +9 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Liverpool | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12:7 | +5 | 9 | WWW |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10:5 | +5 | 9 | WWW |
| 5 | Real Betis | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7:4 | +3 | 9 | WWW |
| 6 |  VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7:2 | +5 | 7 | DWW |
| 7 |  Arsenal | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6:2 | +4 | 7 | DWW |
| 8 |  Barcelona | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 11:6 | +5 | 6 | LWW |
| 9 | Como | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10:5 | +5 | 6 | WLW |
| 10 |  Manchester City | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:5 | +4 | 6 | WLW |
| 11 |  Club Brugge KV | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 9:6 | +3 | 6 | WWL |
| 12 |  Sporting CP | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7:4 | +3 | 6 | LWW |
| 13 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:4 | +1 | 6 | WLW |
| 14 |  Bayern München | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10:5 | +5 | 5 | DDW |
| 15 | AS Roma | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8:5 | +3 | 4 | WLD |
| 16 | Atletico Madrid | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | +1 | 4 | DWL |
| 17 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | +1 | 4 | LWD |
| 18 |  PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 0 | 4 | WLD |
| 19 | Villarreal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 3 | LWL |
| 20 | Inter | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:6 | -1 | 3 | WLL |
| 21 |  Manchester United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:6 | -1 | 3 | LLW |
| 22 |  Napoli | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5:7 | -2 | 3 | WLL |
| 23 |  Galatasaray | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:9 | -3 | 3 | WLL |
| 24 |  Lask Linz | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6:9 | -3 | 3 | WLL |
| 25 |  Sabah FA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:6 | -3 | 3 | LWL |
| 26 |  Feyenoord | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:8 | -4 | 3 | LWL |
| 27 |  Lens | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:7 | -4 | 3 | LLW |
| 28 |  Bodo/Glimt | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:9 | -5 | 3 | LWL |
| 29 |  AEK Athens FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:8 | -5 | 3 | LLW |
| 30 |  RB Leipzig | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3:8 | -5 | 3 | LWL |
| 31 | Fenerbahçe | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3:9 | -6 | 2 | DLD |
| 32 |  Slavia Praha | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4:7 | -3 | 1 | DLL |
| 33 |  Viking | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5:9 | -4 | 1 | LDL |
| 34 |  FC Porto | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2:6 | -4 | 0 | LLL |
| 35 |  Lille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4:10 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:13 | -12 | 0 | LLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 3 | 14:5 | 9 |
| 2 | Aston Villa | 3 | 12:3 | 9 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 3 | 12:7 | 9 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 3 | 10:5 | 9 |
| 5 | Real Betis | 3 | 7:4 | 9 |
| 6 | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 7:2 | 7 |
| 7 | Arsenal | 3 | 6:2 | 7 |
| 8 | Barcelona | 3 | 11:6 | 6 |
| 9 | Como | 3 | 10:5 | 6 |
| 10 | Manchester City | 3 | 9:5 | 6 |
| 11 | Club Brugge KV | 3 | 9:6 | 6 |
| 12 | Sporting CP | 3 | 7:4 | 6 |
| 13 | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 14 | Bayern München | 3 | 10:5 | 5 |
| 15 | AS Roma | 3 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 | Atletico Madrid | 3 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 17 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 3 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 18 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 2:2 | 4 |
| 19 | Villarreal | 3 | 8:8 | 3 |
| 20 | Inter | 3 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 21 | Manchester United | 3 | 5:6 | 3 |
| 22 | Napoli | 3 | 5:7 | 3 |
| 23 | Galatasaray | 3 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 24 | Lask Linz | 3 | 6:9 | 3 |
| 25 | Sabah FA | 3 | 3:6 | 3 |
| 26 | Feyenoord | 3 | 4:8 | 3 |
| 27 | Lens | 3 | 3:7 | 3 |
| 28 | Bodo/Glimt | 3 | 4:9 | 3 |
| 29 | AEK Athens FC | 3 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 30 | RB Leipzig | 3 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 31 | Fenerbahçe | 3 | 3:9 | 2 |
| 32 | Slavia Praha | 3 | 4:7 | 1 |
| 33 | Viking | 3 | 5:9 | 1 |
| 34 | FC Porto | 3 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 35 | Lille | 3 | 4:10 | 0 |
| 36 | Slovan Bratislava | 3 | 1:13 | 0 |
Explore more predictions
This match
- AS Roma Predictions
- Real Madrid Predictions
- UEFA Champions League Predictions
- UEFA Champions League Standings
- UEFA Champions League Stats 2026
- UEFA Champions League top scorers
- UEFA Champions League Knockout Rounds
- UEFA Champions League Winners and Finals History
- Football Tournaments: Predictions, Brackets and History
More UEFA Champions League matches
About the AS Roma vs Real Madrid forecast
This is a UEFA Champions League cup fixture; the forecasts combine team ratings, recent form and scoring data, with the cup context taken into account.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
AS Roma and Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League table
In the UEFA Champions League table, Real Madrid are 4th and AS Roma 15th, 5 points apart. League goal record so far: AS Roma 8-5, Real Madrid 10-5. The full standings are on the UEFA Champions League Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
AS Roma and Real Madrid have met only 2 times recently, averaging 2.5 goals per game in those meetings. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.