Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction
Spain · Regular Season - 5
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano: result, form and history
Real Madrid beat Rayo Vallecano 4-1 in the La Liga on 12 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: Real Madrid had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 1 for Rayo Vallecano.
Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.6 goals, with both teams scoring in 7 of them.
Match Forecasts
Match Events
Lineups
Real Madrid
Avg ratingAvg rating
1T. Courtois
24D. Dumfries
16I. Konaté
22A. Rüdiger
18Á. Fernández
8F. Valverde
20B. Silva
25Y. Diomande
5J. Bellingham
7V. Júnior
10K. Mbappé
25E. Audero
2A. Rațiu
24F. Lejeune
6P. Ciss
17A. Pedrosa
36G. Bouare
8U. López
14G. Tsitaishvili
4P. Díaz
18Á. García
10S. CamelloReal Madrid Substitutes
Rayo Vallecano Substitutes
Match Stats
Real MadridRayo Vallecano Team Comparison
Real MadridRayo VallecanoAI Insights
Game State Tendencies
Real Madrid- Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Scores more in 2nd half (2 vs 1.1 in first half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Rayo Vallecano- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (0.7 vs 0.2 in second half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Real Madrid5Wins · 50%1Wins · 10%Previous meetings
01/02/2026Real MadridRayo Vallecano09/11/2025Rayo VallecanoReal Madrid09/03/2025Real MadridRayo Vallecano14/12/2024Rayo VallecanoReal Madrid18/02/2024Rayo VallecanoReal Madrid05/11/2023Real MadridRayo Vallecano24/05/2023Real MadridRayo Vallecano07/11/2022Rayo VallecanoReal Madrid26/02/2022Rayo VallecanoReal Madrid06/11/2021Real MadridRayo VallecanoRecent Form
Real MadridReal Madrid
Inter
Real BetisReal MadridReal Madrid
MalagaReal Madrid
Real Sociedad
EspanyolReal Madrid
FC Schalke 04Real Madrid
Deportivo La CorunaReal Madrid
Ferencvarosi TCReal MadridReal Madrid
FiorentinaReal Madrid
LeganesRayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
Racing Santander
BarcelonaRayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano
Alaves
SevillaRayo Vallecano
IpswichRayo Vallecano
CharleroiRayo Vallecano
FeyenoordRayo Vallecano
Heart Of MidlothianRayo Vallecano
Crystal PalaceRayo VallecanoAlavesRayo VallecanoLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Atletico Madrid | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 22:8 | +14 | 28 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Barcelona | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 40:11 | +29 | 27 | LWWWW |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 25:10 | +15 | 24 | WWWLW |
| 4 | Real Betis | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 16:14 | +2 | 20 | DLWDW |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19:18 | +1 | 19 | WWWWL |
| 6 | Sevilla | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16:16 | 0 | 17 | WLDLW |
| 7 | Alaves | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14:11 | +3 | 12 | DLLDL |
| 8 |  Athletic Club | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12:9 | +3 | 12 | LDDDD |
| 9 |  Celta Vigo | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 10:7 | +3 | 12 | DWDWD |
| 10 |  Villarreal | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15:15 | 0 | 12 | LWDLW |
| 11 | Deportivo La Coruna | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13:13 | 0 | 11 | LDLDL |
| 12 | Espanyol | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 13:14 | -1 | 11 | WLLDL |
| 13 |  Osasuna | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10:20 | -10 | 11 | LWLDL |
| 14 | Racing Santander | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15:26 | -11 | 11 | WLDLL |
| 15 |  Elche | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14:17 | -3 | 10 | WDDWL |
| 16 |  Levante | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 16:21 | -5 | 10 | LWDDL |
| 17 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12:20 | -8 | 9 | DDDWL |
| 18 |  Getafe | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5:15 | -10 | 9 | LDLWL |
| 19 |  Valencia | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7:17 | -10 | 6 | LDDLW |
| 20 | Malaga | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 7:19 | -12 | 5 | DLDLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Madrid | 11 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 2 | Barcelona | 10 | 40:11 | 27 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 10 | 25:10 | 24 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 10 | 16:14 | 20 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 10 | 19:18 | 19 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 10 | 16:16 | 17 |
| 7 | Alaves | 10 | 14:11 | 12 |
| 8 | Athletic Club | 9 | 12:9 | 12 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 10 | 10:7 | 12 |
| 10 | Villarreal | 11 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 11 | Deportivo La Coruna | 10 | 13:13 | 11 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 11 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 13 | Osasuna | 10 | 10:20 | 11 |
| 14 | Racing Santander | 10 | 15:26 | 11 |
| 15 | Elche | 10 | 14:17 | 10 |
| 16 | Levante | 11 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 17 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | 12:20 | 9 |
| 18 | Getafe | 10 | 5:15 | 9 |
| 19 | Valencia | 10 | 7:17 | 6 |
| 20 | Malaga | 10 | 7:19 | 5 |
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About the Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano forecast
As a derby, this La Liga meeting carries extra weight; the forecasts take that context into account alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano in the La Liga table
The table shows a wide gap: Real Madrid are 3rd in the La Liga, while Rayo Vallecano sit 17th, 15 points behind. League goal record so far: Real Madrid 25-10, Rayo Vallecano 12-20. The full standings are on the La Liga Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.0 out of 10 by our context model. Real Madrid have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.