Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
Spain · Regular Season - 5
Anoeta, San Sebastian 13/09/2026
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
67%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.66
SignalGOODModel67%SurpriseMediumGap+6.7%
Real Sociedad Rest
5 days
Atletico Madrid Rest
4 days
Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid: the result in context
Atletico Madrid beat Real Sociedad 3-0 in the La Liga on 13 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Atletico Madrid have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 3.0 goals a game. Atletico Madrid tend to win more corners, 5.8 a game to 3.5 for Real Sociedad.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
125%3.20
X29%3.60
246%2.16
Double Chance
1X54%1.69
X275%1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes52%1.50
No48%2.50
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.22 + 1.29 = 2.51
Over 1.573%1.18
Over 2.546%1.62
Over 3.521%2.47
Under 1.527%4.75
Under 2.554%2.33
Under 3.579%1.51
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.8 + 4.4 = 9.2
Over 8.551%1.47
Over 9.543%1.84
Over 10.533%2.30
Under 8.549%2.46
Under 9.557%1.92
Under 10.567%1.56
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2 = 4
Over 3.556%1.43
Over 4.537%1.83
Under 3.544%2.77
Under 4.563%1.83
Match Events
18'Yangel HerreraFoul
59'Alejandro Baena Rodríguez INJohnny Cardoso out
60'Marcos Llorente INJonathan David out
60'Lee Kang-In INKoke out
72'Pellegrino MatarazzoDissent
72'Ander Barrenetxea INJob Ochieng out
72'Gonçalo Guedes INTakefusa Kubo out
75'Johnny CardosoFoul
76'Ademola Lookman INArnau Ortiz out
78'Carlos Soler INJon Gorrotxategi out
78'Mikel OyarzabalTime wasting
79'Mikel Oyarzabal INOrri Steinn Óskarsson out
84'Alejandro Grimaldo(Penalty)
85'Yangel Herrera INArsen Zakharyan out
90'Jonathan DavidAssist: Alejandro Grimaldo
90+5'Giuliano Simeone BaldiniAssist: Dávid Hancko
Lineups
Real SociedadAtletico Madrid
3-4-2-1Coach: D. SimeoneAvg ratingAvg rating
1Á. Remiro
2J. Aramburu
34L. Beitia
19M. Sarr
17S. Gómez
21Y. Herrera
18C. Soler
7Barrenetxea
24L. Sučić
11G. Guedes
10M. Oyarzabal
13J. Oblak
18M. Pubill
21C. Romero
17D. Hancko
20G. Simeone
14M. Llorente
23M. Hjulmand
22Á. Grimaldo
7L. Kang-In
10Á. Baena
11A. LookmanReal Sociedad Substitutes
4Jon Gorrotxategi78'for Carlos Soler
14T. Kubo72'for Gonçalo Guedes
22Héctor Fort
29Alex Garcia
13Unai Marrero
3Aihen Muñoz
12J. Ochieng72'for Ander Barrenetxea
16Jon Pacheco
8Beñat Turrientes
23A. Zakharyan85'for Yangel Herrera
9O. Óskarsson79'for Mikel Oyarzabal
27Gorka Carrera
Atletico Madrid Substitutes
5J. Cardoso59'for Alejandro Baena Rodríguez75'
15J. David60'for Marcos Llorente90'
27J. Dominguez
25Salvador Esquivel
6Koke60'for Lee Kang-In
24Robin Le Normand
4Rodrigo Mendoza
1J. Musso
16Arnau Ortiz76'for Ademola Lookman
3O. Vargas
45Javier Gil
30Dani MartÃnez
Match Stats
Real SociedadAtletico Madrid 54%Ball Possession46%
9Corner Kicks3
2Yellow Cards1
8Total Shots13
3Shots on Goal5
1Shots off Goal6
2Shots Inside Box9
6Shots Outside Box4
4Blocked Shots2
13Fouls9
1Offsides1
2Goalkeeper Saves3
524Total Passes462
450Passes Accurate373
86%Pass Accuracy81%
Team Comparison
Real SociedadAtletico Madrid1833Elo Rating 1948
3.48Attack 1.31
1.89Defense 2.63
83%Hit Rate 77%
15.0Shots per Game 16.3
5.1Shots on Target 4.7
3.5Corners per Game 5.8
1.6Cards per Game 2.9
AI Insights
📈BTTS Trend80% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
⚠️Away Rotation Risk70%
Game State Tendencies
Real Sociedad- Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
- Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.9 vs 1.6 in second half)
- Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Atletico Madrid- Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.3 in first half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Real Sociedad0Wins · 0%Draws440%
Atletico Madrid6Wins · 60%
6Wins · 60%3.0Avg Goals
80%Both teams scored8 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10
Previous meetings
18/04/2026Atletico MadridReal Sociedad3242
07/03/2026Atletico MadridReal Sociedad32
04/01/2026Real SociedadAtletico Madrid11
10/05/2025Atletico MadridReal Sociedad40
06/10/2024Real SociedadAtletico Madrid11
25/05/2024Real SociedadAtletico Madrid02
08/10/2023Atletico MadridReal Sociedad21
28/05/2023Atletico MadridReal Sociedad21
03/09/2022Real SociedadAtletico Madrid11
22/05/2022Real SociedadAtletico Madrid12
Recent Form
Real Sociedad4W1D5L
07/09/2026
ElcheReal SociedadReal Sociedad
Celta VigoReal Sociedad
Espanyol
Real MadridReal Sociedad
Real BetisReal Sociedad
ElcheReal Sociedad23
W03/09/2026Real SociedadCelta Vigo00
D29/08/2026Real SociedadEspanyol21
W26/08/2026Real MadridReal Sociedad41
L21/08/2026Real BetisReal Sociedad10
L15/08/2026
ChelseaReal Sociedad
ChelseaReal Sociedad31
L08/08/2026
1. FC KölnReal Sociedad
1. FC KölnReal Sociedad21
L31/07/2026
ToulouseReal Sociedad
ToulouseReal Sociedad21
L28/07/2026
Aston VillaReal Sociedad
Aston VillaReal Sociedad24
W25/07/2026
WolvesReal Sociedad
WolvesReal Sociedad12
WAtletico Madrid5W1D4L
09/09/2026
LiverpoolAtletico Madrid
Athletic ClubAtletico Madrid
SevillaAtletico MadridAtletico Madrid
VillarrealAtletico Madrid
Malaga
LiverpoolAtletico Madrid21
L05/09/2026Athletic ClubAtletico Madrid30
L29/08/2026SevillaAtletico Madrid13
W23/08/2026Atletico MadridVillarreal22
D19/08/2026Atletico MadridMalaga20
W14/08/2026
MarseilleAtletico Madrid
MarseilleAtletico Madrid12
W09/08/2026
Manchester CityAtletico Madrid
Manchester CityAtletico Madrid31
L01/08/2026
Manchester UnitedAtletico Madrid
Manchester UnitedAtletico Madrid21
L29/07/2026Atletico Madrid
Getafe
Atletico MadridGetafe41
W17/05/2026Atletico Madrid
Girona
Atletico MadridGirona10
WLeague Table
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 46:12 | +34 | 30 | WLWWW |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 22:8 | +14 | 28 | WWWWW |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 28:10 | +18 | 27 | WWWWL |
| 4 | Real Betis | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 18:15 | +3 | 23 | WDLWD |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 20:20 | 0 | 19 | LWWWW |
| 6 | Sevilla | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17:19 | -2 | 17 | LWLDL |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14:10 | +4 | 15 | WLDDD |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 15:14 | +1 | 14 | WLDLD |
| 9 | Villarreal | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15:15 | 0 | 12 | LWDLW |
| 10 | Celta Vigo | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 10:10 | 0 | 12 | LDWDW |
| 11 |  Alaves | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15:17 | -2 | 12 | LDLLD |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15:20 | -5 | 12 | LDDDW |
| 13 | Getafe | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8:16 | -8 | 12 | WLDLW |
| 14 | Espanyol | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 13:14 | -1 | 11 | WLLDL |
| 15 |  Osasuna | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 11:22 | -11 | 11 | LLWLD |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15:29 | -14 | 11 | LWLDL |
| 17 | Elche | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14:18 | -4 | 10 | LWDDW |
| 18 |  Levante | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 16:21 | -5 | 10 | LLWDD |
| 19 |  Valencia | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 8:17 | -9 | 9 | WLDDL |
| 20 | Malaga | 11 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 8:21 | -13 | 5 | LDLDL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 11 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 11 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 11 | 28:10 | 27 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 11 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 11 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 11 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 10 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 11 | 15:14 | 14 |
| 9 | Villarreal | 11 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 10 | Celta Vigo | 11 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 11 | Alaves | 11 | 15:17 | 12 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 13 | Getafe | 11 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 14 | Espanyol | 11 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 | Osasuna | 11 | 11:22 | 11 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 11 | 15:29 | 11 |
| 17 | Elche | 11 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 | Levante | 11 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 | Valencia | 11 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 | Malaga | 11 | 8:21 | 5 |
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About the Real Sociedad vs Atletico Madrid forecast
The forecasts for this La Liga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
Real Sociedad and Atletico Madrid in the La Liga table
In the La Liga table, Atletico Madrid are 2nd and Real Sociedad 5th, 9 points apart. League goal record so far: Real Sociedad 20-20, Atletico Madrid 22-8. The full standings are on the La Liga Table 2026 page.
Key Factors for This Match
Real Sociedad have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.