Elche vs Real Madrid Prediction

Elche
2-3
Finished
HT 0-2
Real Madrid
Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche 15/09/2026
ElcheElche
2-3
Finished
Real MadridReal Madrid

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
72%Trust
Total Cards
Cards Under 4.5
1.57
SignalGOODModel72%SurpriseMediumGap+9.8%
Elche Rest
3 days
Real Madrid Rest
3 days

Elche vs Real Madrid: the result in context

Real Madrid beat Elche 3-2 in the La Liga on 15 Sep 2026. It was in line with recent form: Real Madrid had won 4 of their previous five, compared with none for Elche.

When these two meet, goals usually follow: 3.1 a game across 9 meetings, with both teams scoring in 6. Real Madrid tend to win more corners, 6.2 a game to 4.0 for Elche.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
16%13.00
X
22%7.00
2
62%1.21
Double Chance
1X
38%4.42
X2
84%1.04
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%1.70
No
48%2.05
Goals
Projected Goals: 1 + 1.75 = 2.75
Over 1.5
75%1.05
Over 2.5
58%1.30
Over 3.5
36%1.79
Under 1.5
25%7.65
Under 2.5
42%3.45
Under 3.5
64%2.04
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.4 + 5.2 = 9.6
Over 8.5
61%1.44
Over 9.5
52%1.72
Over 10.5
38%2.14
Under 8.5
39%2.63
Under 9.5
48%2.02
Under 10.5
62%1.60
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.8 + 1.8 = 3.6
Over 3.5
47%1.73
Over 4.5
28%2.31
Under 3.5
53%2.02
Under 4.5
72%1.57

Match Events

4'Yan DiomandeFoul
25'Matías DituroOG
31'Marc AguadoDissent
33'Kylian MbappéAssist: Yan Diomande
58'Marc Aguado INLucas Cepeda out
58'Germán Valera INThomas Lemar out
68'Vinícius INBrahim Díaz out
68'Arda Güler INJude Bellingham out
68'Buba Sangaré INRuben Sanchez Saez out
68'Martim Neto INFernando Niño Rodríguez out
71'Abiel Alessio OsorioAssist: Lucas Cepeda
73'Ibrahima KonatéFoul
78'Lucas CepedaFoul
80'Tete Morente INJosé Antonio Ferrández Pomares out
83'Fernando Niño RodríguezAssist: José Antonio Ferrández Pomares
86'Aurelien Tchouameni INEndrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa out
87'Trent Alexander-Arnold INCarlos Espí out
90+1'Carlos EspíAssist: Kylian Mbappé
90+2'Yan Diomande INDenzel Dumfries out
90+3'José Antonio Ferrández PomaresFoul
90+4'Gonzalo VillarArgument

Lineups

Elche
4-5-1Coach: M. Anselmi
Real Madrid
4-2-3-1Coach: José Mourinho
Avg rating6.39
Avg rating6.77
M. Dituro6.01M. Dituro
Buba Sangaré6.02B. Sangaré
F. Redondo6.55F. Redondo
Víctor Chust6.423V. Chust
R. Revivo6.13R. Revivo
Germán Valera5.811G. Valera
Martim Neto6.316M. Neto
Marc Aguado6.28M. Aguado
Gonzalo Villar6.712G. Villar
Tete Morente6.220T. Morente
A. Osorio7.724A. Osorio
T. Courtois6.11T. Courtois
T. Alexander-Arnold7.212T. Alexander-Arnold
I. Konaté6.316I. Konaté
D. Huijsen6.74D. Huijsen
Marc Cucurella6.517M. Cucurella
F. Valverde6.58F. Valverde
A. Tchouaméni6.614A. Tchouaméni
Y. Diomande7.325Y. Diomande
A. Güler7.115A. Güler
Vinícius Júnior6.37V. Júnior
Kylian Mbappé8.910K. Mbappé

Elche Substitutes

26Matia Barzic Gutiérrez
6Bigas
10F. Buonanotte
21L. Cepeda58'for Marc Aguado78'6.5
19G. Diangana
13Alejandro Iturbe
17Josan80'for Tete Morente90+3'5.7
18T. Lemar58'for Germán Valera6.6
14Fer Niño68'for Martim Neto83'7.9
9E. Ponce
22Rubén Sánchez68'for Buba Sangaré5.9
47J. Morcillo

Real Madrid Substitutes

20Bernardo Silva
22A. Rüdiger
27Thiago Pitarch
13A. Lunin
19Carlos Espí87'for Trent Alexander-Arnold90+1'7.9
9Endrick86'for Aurelien Tchouameni6.8
24D. Dumfries90+2'for Yan Diomande5.7
21Brahim Díaz68'for Vinícius6.1
18Álvaro Fernández
6E. Camavinga
2Raúl Asencio
5J. Bellingham68'for Arda Güler6.2

Match Stats

ElcheReal Madrid
56%Ball Possession44%
2Corner Kicks5
4Yellow Cards2
11Total Shots20
3Shots on Goal4
6Shots off Goal11
7Shots Inside Box15
4Shots Outside Box5
2Blocked Shots5
21Fouls8
1Offsides5
2Goalkeeper Saves1
542Total Passes430
493Passes Accurate383
91%Pass Accuracy89%

Team Comparison

ElcheElche
Real MadridReal Madrid
1767Elo Rating 2033
1.92Attack 3.04
2.59Defense 1.81
64%Hit Rate 100%
11.6Shots per Game 13.9
4.7Shots on Target 7.3
4.0Corners per Game 6.2
2.8Cards per Game 2.4

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend67% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

ElcheElche
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
Real MadridReal Madrid
  • Leads at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (2 vs 1.1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 9 meetings, all competitions

ElcheElche0Wins · 0%
Draws444%
Real MadridReal Madrid5Wins · 56%
3.1Avg Goals
67%Both teams scored6 of 9
78%3+ goals7 of 9

Previous meetings

La Liga14/03/2026
Real MadridElche
41
La Liga23/11/2025
ElcheReal Madrid
22
La Liga15/02/2023
Real MadridElche
40
La Liga19/10/2022
ElcheReal Madrid
03
La Liga23/01/2022
Real MadridElche
22
Copa del Rey20/01/2022
ElcheReal Madrid
1020
La Liga30/10/2021
ElcheReal Madrid
12
La Liga13/03/2021
Real MadridElche
21
La Liga30/12/2020
ElcheReal Madrid
11

Recent Form

ElcheElche
2W5D3L
12/09/2026
Athletic ClubElche
11
D
07/09/2026
ElcheReal Sociedad
23
L
28/08/2026
Racing SantanderElche
32
L
23/08/2026
ElcheBarcelona
05
L
17/08/2026
Deportivo La CorunaElche
11
D
31/07/2026
ElcheCordoba
22
D
28/07/2026
ElcheAl Ain
22
D
18/07/2026
ElcheKaizer Chiefs
21
W
23/05/2026
GironaElche
11
D
17/05/2026
ElcheGetafe
10
W
Real MadridReal Madrid
8W1D1L
12/09/2026
Real MadridRayo Vallecano
41
W
08/09/2026
Real MadridInter
21
W
04/09/2026
Real BetisReal Madrid
10
L
30/08/2026
Real MadridMalaga
40
W
26/08/2026
Real MadridReal Sociedad
41
W
22/08/2026
EspanyolReal Madrid
12
W
16/08/2026
FC Schalke 04Real Madrid
03
W
12/08/2026
Deportivo La CorunaReal Madrid
01
W
08/08/2026
Ferencvarosi TCReal Madrid
12
W
01/08/2026
Real MadridFiorentina
22
D

League Table

La Liga 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1BarcelonaBarcelona1090140:11+2927LWWWW
2Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid1081120:8+1225WWWWW
3Real MadridReal Madrid1080225:10+1524WWWLW
4Real BetisReal Betis1062216:14+220DLWDW
5Real SociedadReal Sociedad1061319:18+119WWWWL
6SevillaSevilla1052316:16017WLDLW
7AlavesAlaves1033414:11+312DLLDL
8Athletic ClubAthletic Club933312:9+312LDDDD
9Celta VigoCelta Vigo1026210:7+312DWDWD
10VillarrealVillarreal1133515:15012LWDLW
11Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna1025313:13011LDLDL
12EspanyolEspanyol1132613:14-111WLLDL
13OsasunaOsasuna1032510:20-1011LWLDL
14Racing SantanderRacing Santander1032515:26-1111WLDLL
15LevanteLevante1024416:19-310LWDDL
16ElcheElche1024414:17-310WDDWL
17Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano923412:20-89DDDWL
18GetafeGetafe102355:15-109LDLWL
19ValenciaValencia101367:17-106LDDLW
20MalagaMalaga100557:19-125DLDLL
#TeamMPGPts
1BarcelonaBarcelona1040:1127
2Atletico MadridAtletico Madrid1020:825
3Real MadridReal Madrid1025:1024
4Real BetisReal Betis1016:1420
5Real SociedadReal Sociedad1019:1819
6SevillaSevilla1016:1617
7AlavesAlaves1014:1112
8Athletic ClubAthletic Club912:912
9Celta VigoCelta Vigo1010:712
10VillarrealVillarreal1115:1512
11Deportivo La CorunaDeportivo La Coruna1013:1311
12EspanyolEspanyol1113:1411
13OsasunaOsasuna1010:2011
14Racing SantanderRacing Santander1015:2611
15LevanteLevante1016:1910
16ElcheElche1014:1710
17Rayo VallecanoRayo Vallecano912:209
18GetafeGetafe105:159
19ValenciaValencia107:176
20MalagaMalaga107:195
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueConference LeagueRelegation

About the Elche vs Real Madrid forecast

The forecasts for this La Liga match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Elche and Real Madrid in the La Liga table

In the La Liga table, Real Madrid are 3rd and Elche 16th, 14 points apart. League goal record so far: Elche 14-17, Real Madrid 25-10. The full standings are on the La Liga Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

Real Madrid have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.