Coventry vs Aston Villa Prediction

Coventry
1-3
Finished
HT 1-2
Aston Villa
Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry 16/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.7 / 10
AI Best Pick
70%Trust
Double Chance
Draw or Away Win
1.36
SignalGOODModel59%SurpriseHighGap-3.2%
Coventry Rest
3 days
Aston Villa Rest
4 days

Coventry vs Aston Villa: result, form and history

Aston Villa beat Coventry 3-1 in the League Cup on 16 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Aston Villa tend to win more corners, 5.7 a game to 3.0 for Coventry.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
22%3.16
X
18%3.65
2
60%2.10
Double Chance
1X
40%1.70
X2
78%1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%1.47
No
47%2.50
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.19 + 1.71 = 2.90
Over 1.5
85%1.17
Over 2.5
56%1.57
Over 3.5
38%2.38
Under 1.5
15%4.80
Under 2.5
44%2.40
Under 3.5
62%1.53
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

7'Tammy AbrahamAssist: George Hemmings
12'Aurele Amenda INEthan Pinnock out
23'Stephen MfuniFoul
26'Ross BarkleyFoul
27'Victor Torp
40'Ross BarkleyAssist: Ibrahim Mbaye
43'Aaron Wan-BissakaNot retreating
45'Marco Bizot INZion Suzuki out
46'Caleb YirenkyiHandball
57'Tatsuhiro Sakamoto INLoum Tchaouna out
58'Sidiki Cherif INEllis Simms out
59'Tammy AbrahamAssist: Ross Barkley
64'John McGinn INJohan Manzambi out
64'Ibrahim Mbaye INEmiliano Buendía out
69'Tammy Abraham INNicolas Jackson out
73'Caleb Yirenkyi INFrank Onyeka out
73'Stephen Mfuni INJake Bidwell out
79'George Hemmings IN Alysson Edward Franco da Rocha out
87'Frank OnyekaFoul
90'Emiliano BuendíaDissent

Lineups

Coventry
4-2-3-1Coach: F. Lampard
Aston Villa
4-2-3-1Coach: Unai Emery
Avg rating6.26
Avg rating7.10
D. Bentley6.525D. Bentley
J. Latibeaudiere6.122J. Latibeaudiere
B. Thomas6.14B. Thomas
A. Amenda5.924A. Amenda
S. Mfuni5.512S. Mfuni
Caleb Marfo Yirenkyi6.28C. Marfo Yirenkyi
V. Torp8.029V. Torp
T. Sakamoto6.07T. Sakamoto
G. Hamer6.438G. Hamer
Y. Gboho5.634Y. Gboho
S. Cherif6.949S. Cherif
M. Bizot6.740M. Bizot
A. Wan-Bissaka6.529A. Wan-Bissaka
T. Harwood-Bellis6.94T. Harwood-Bellis
T. Mings6.85T. Mings
M. Ruggeri7.213M. Ruggeri
L. Bogarde6.826L. Bogarde
R. Barkley9.06R. Barkley
I. Mbaye7.719I. Mbaye
J.  McGinn7.17J. McGinn
George Hemmings7.353G. Hemmings
T. Abraham8.918T. Abraham

Coventry Substitutes

10E. Mason-Clark
6M. Grimes
21J. Bidwell73'for Stephen Mfuni6.0
16F. Onyeka73'for Caleb Yirenkyi87'5.6
2E. Pinnock12'for Aurele Amenda6.5
9E. Simms58'for Sidiki Cherif6.3
17L. Tchaouna57'for Tatsuhiro Sakamoto6.7
23B. Thomas-Asante
13B. Wilson

Aston Villa Substitutes

10E. Buendía64'for Ibrahim Mbaye90'6.3
2M. Cash
17A. Garnacho
11N. Jackson69'for Tammy Abraham6.7
8B. Kamara
44J. Manzambi64'for John McGinn6.9
3V. Lindelöf
1Z. Suzuki45'for Marco Bizot6.6
47Alysson Edward79'for George Hemmings6.3

Match Stats

CoventryAston Villa
42%Ball Possession58%
2Corner Kicks9
3Yellow Cards3
15Total Shots18
5Shots on Goal9
6Shots off Goal3
5Shots Inside Box14
10Shots Outside Box4
4Blocked Shots6
17Fouls12
2Offsides2
6Goalkeeper Saves4
386Total Passes514
318Passes Accurate449
12Free Kicks16

Team Comparison

CoventryCoventry
Aston VillaAston Villa
1708Elo Rating 1950
1.31Attack 2.70
1.43Defense 2.22
36%Hit Rate 86%
11.8Shots per Game 16.0
3.1Shots on Target 6.2
3.0Corners per Game 5.7
1.3Cards per Game 1.7

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.89 goals
📈BTTS Trend
📊Away Overperforming
⚠️Home Rotation Risk90%
⚠️Away Rotation Risk70%

Game State Tendencies

CoventryCoventry
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1 vs 0.3 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Aston VillaAston Villa
  • Leads at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.6 vs 1.1 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Recent Form

CoventryCoventry
5W1D4L
13/09/2026
CoventryBrighton
05
L
05/09/2026
Manchester CityCoventry
10
L
29/08/2026
CoventryHull City
01
L
25/08/2026
PlymouthCoventry
24
W
21/08/2026
ArsenalCoventry
30
L
14/08/2026
CoventryMonaco
20
W
08/08/2026
CoventryEspanyol
31
W
18/07/2026
NorthamptonCoventry
00
D
02/05/2026
WatfordCoventry
04
W
26/04/2026
CoventryWrexham
31
W
Aston VillaAston Villa
2W1D7L
12/09/2026
Aston VillaNottingham Forest
12
L
08/09/2026
Club Brugge KVAston Villa
23
W
05/09/2026
Hull CityAston Villa
00
D
31/08/2026
Aston VillaArsenal
01
L
23/08/2026
BrightonAston Villa
40
L
15/08/2026
Borussia MönchengladbachAston Villa
21
L
12/08/2026
Paris Saint GermainAston Villa
21
L
07/08/2026
Bayern MünchenAston Villa
21
L
04/08/2026
BG Pathum UnitedAston Villa
13
W
28/07/2026
Aston VillaReal Sociedad
24
L

Bracket

Round of 128
Round of 64
Round of 32
Round of 16
Cambridge United0
Millwall1
Nottingham Forest0
Leeds2
Bradford04
Burnley02
On penalties
Chelsea2
Luton0
Fulham3
AFC Wimbledon0
Sunderland
Seeded
Crystal Palace
Seeded
Bournemouth
Seeded
Arsenal
Seeded
Liverpool
Seeded
Aston Villa
Seeded
Manchester United
Seeded
Brighton
Seeded
Manchester City
Seeded

About the Coventry vs Aston Villa forecast

As a knockout tie in the League Cup, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About League Cup

More League Cup fixtures and forecasts are on the League Cup Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Aston Villa have led at half-time in 80% of their recent matches. Coventry and Aston Villa have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.