Manchester United vs Brighton Prediction

Manchester United
2-3
Finished
HT 2-1
Brighton
Old Trafford, Manchester 16/09/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.7 / 10
AI Best Pick
86%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.22
SignalSTRONGModel64%SurpriseHighGap+3.7%
Value Analysis
67%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.72
SignalGOODModel67%SurpriseHighGap+11.8%
Manchester United Rest
3 days
Brighton Rest
3 days

Manchester United vs Brighton: result, form and history

Brighton beat Manchester United 3-2 in the League Cup on 16 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Brighton have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 2.9 goals a game. Brighton tend to win more corners, 6.9 a game to 4.2 for Manchester United.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
68%1.72
X
20%4.33
2
12%4.28
Double Chance
1X
88%1.22
X2
32%2.10
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%1.44
No
48%2.65
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.68 + 0.99 = 2.67
Over 1.5
85%1.12
Over 2.5
55%1.40
Over 3.5
37%2.03
Under 1.5
15%6.00
Under 2.5
45%2.81
Under 3.5
63%1.78
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

8'Shea LaceyAssist: Youri Tielemans
10'Mason Mount
43'Chema AndrésFoul
45+1'Charalampos KostoulasAssist: Jaouen Hadjam
59'Jaouen HadjamFoul
65'Pascal GroßAssist: Luka Vuskovic
66'Matt O'Riley INDiego Gomez out
66'Shea Lacey INBryan Mbeumo out
66'Andrey Santos INKobbie Mainoo out
66'Benjamin Šeško INJoshua Zirkzee out
66'Malick Yalcouyé INMaxim De Cuyper out
69'Maxim De Cuyper
73'Mason Mount INBruno Fernandes out
74'Olivier Boscagli INYasin Ayari out
74'Jaouen Hadjam INFerdi Kadıoğlu out
80'Marcus Rashford INMatheus Cunha out
82'Charalampos Kostoulas INGeorginio Rutter out
85'Yasin AyariFoul
90+1'Maxim De CuyperTime wasting

Lineups

Manchester United
4-2-3-1Coach: M. Carrick
Brighton
3-4-2-1Coach: F. Hürzeler
Avg rating6.31
Avg rating6.63
K. Darlow5.712K. Darlow
Diogo Dalot5.92D. Dalot
L. Yoro6.215L. Yoro
A. Heaven6.126A. Heaven
N. Mazraoui6.03N. Mazraoui
Y. Tielemans7.318Y. Tielemans
Andrey Santos6.217A. Santos
S. Lacey7.231S. Lacey
M. Mount7.27M. Mount
M. Rashford5.89M. Rashford
B. Šeško5.730B. Šeško
J. Steele6.423J. Steele
L. Vušković6.944L. Vušković
P. Struijk6.74P. Struijk
O. Boscagli6.421O. Boscagli
Costinha6.320Costinha
José María Andrés Baixauli6.514J. María Andrés Baixauli
P. Groß8.213P. Groß
J. Hadjam6.63J. Hadjam
M. O'Riley6.433M. O'Riley
M. Yalcouyé6.235M. Yalcouyé
C. Kostoulas7.819C. Kostoulas

Manchester United Substitutes

39T. Fletcher
8Bruno Fernandes73'for Mason Mount6.3
41H. Amass
1S. Lammens
5H. Maguire
37K. Mainoo66'for Andrey Santos6.4
19B. Mbeumo66'for Shea Lacey6.4
10Matheus Cunha80'for Marcus Rashford6.5
11J. Zirkzee66'for Benjamin Šeško6.1

Brighton Substitutes

12P. David
29M. De Cuyper66'for Malick Yalcouyé69'90+1'7.0
5L. Dunk
25D. Gómez66'for Matt O'Riley5.9
24F. Kadıoğlu74'for Jaouen Hadjam6.2
15I. Osman
10G. Rutter82'for Charalampos Kostoulas6.7
1B. Verbruggen
26Y. Ayari74'for Olivier Boscagli85'6.0

Match Stats

Manchester UnitedBrighton
42%Ball Possession58%
4Corner Kicks3
0Yellow Cards4
12Total Shots18
4Shots on Goal5
7Shots off Goal8
6Shots Inside Box14
6Shots Outside Box4
1Blocked Shots5
5Fouls14
0Offsides2
2Goalkeeper Saves2
527Total Passes535
434Passes Accurate442
14Free Kicks5

Team Comparison

Manchester UnitedManchester United
BrightonBrighton
1804Elo Rating 1936
0.56Attack 1.93
0.61Defense 2.00
0%Hit Rate 31%
13.3Shots per Game 21.3
4.1Shots on Target 5.4
4.2Corners per Game 6.9
3.0Cards per Game 1.8

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming
⚠️Away Rotation Risk90%

Game State Tendencies

Manchester UnitedManchester United
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
BrightonBrighton
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Manchester UnitedManchester United3Wins · 30%
Draws110%
BrightonBrighton6Wins · 60%
2.9Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored6 of 10
70%3+ goals7 of 10

Previous meetings

Premier League24/05/2026
BrightonManchester United
03
FA Cup11/01/2026
Manchester UnitedBrighton
12
Premier League25/10/2025
Manchester UnitedBrighton
42
Premier League19/01/2025
Manchester UnitedBrighton
13
Premier League24/08/2024
BrightonManchester United
21
Premier League19/05/2024
BrightonManchester United
02
Premier League16/09/2023
Manchester UnitedBrighton
13
Premier League04/05/2023
BrightonManchester United
10
FA Cup23/04/2023
BrightonManchester United
6070
Premier League07/08/2022
Manchester UnitedBrighton
12

Recent Form

Manchester UnitedManchester United
4W2D4L
13/09/2026
Manchester UnitedManchester City
01
L
10/09/2026
Manchester UnitedSabah FA
40
W
06/09/2026
EvertonManchester United
22
D
30/08/2026
Manchester UnitedIpswich
52
W
22/08/2026
Hull CityManchester United
20
L
15/08/2026
Manchester UnitedAC Milan
24
L
12/08/2026
LeedsManchester United
5141
L
08/08/2026
Paris Saint GermainManchester United
11
D
01/08/2026
Manchester UnitedAtletico Madrid
21
W
24/07/2026
RosenborgManchester United
05
W
BrightonBrighton
6W2D2L
13/09/2026
CoventryBrighton
05
W
05/09/2026
BrightonLeeds
11
D
30/08/2026
ChelseaBrighton
43
L
27/08/2026
BrightonTromso
40
W
23/08/2026
BrightonAston Villa
40
W
20/08/2026
TromsoBrighton
00
D
15/08/2026
BrightonBologna
10
W
08/08/2026
BrightonAS Roma
30
W
01/08/2026
BrightonStrasbourg
43
W
24/05/2026
BrightonManchester United
03
L

Bracket

Round of 128
Round of 64
Round of 32
Round of 16
Cambridge United0
Millwall1
Nottingham Forest0
Leeds2
Bradford04
Burnley02
On penalties
Chelsea2
Luton0
Fulham3
AFC Wimbledon0
Sunderland
Seeded
Crystal Palace
Seeded
Bournemouth
Seeded
Arsenal
Seeded
Liverpool
Seeded
Aston Villa
Seeded
Manchester United
Seeded
Brighton
Seeded
Manchester City
Seeded

About the Manchester United vs Brighton forecast

As a knockout tie in the League Cup, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About League Cup

More League Cup fixtures and forecasts are on the League Cup Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.