Norwich vs Milton Keynes Dons Prediction

Norwich
4-1
Finished
HT 3-0
Milton Keynes Dons
Carrow Road, Norwich·Elliott Swallow, England 08/08/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
82%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.20
SignalSTRONGModel49%SurpriseHighGap-0.9%
Value Analysis
70%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 3.5 Goals
1.45
SignalGOODModel33%SurpriseHighGap+6.0%
Norwich Rest
3 days
Milton Keynes Dons Rest
7 days

Norwich vs Milton Keynes Dons: the result in context

Norwich beat Milton Keynes Dons 4-1 in the League Cup on 8 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Referee Elliott Swallow averages 4.46 cards a game, 0.57 more than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
49%1.53
X
22%4.26
2
29%5.22
Double Chance
1X
71%1.14
X2
51%2.40
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%1.73
No
54%2.00
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.29 + 1.5 = 2.79
Over 1.5
82%1.20
Over 2.5
48%1.65
Over 3.5
30%2.60
Under 1.5
18%4.30
Under 2.5
52%2.19
Under 3.5
70%1.45
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

1'Mohamed TouréAssist: Kenny McLean
7'Anis Ben SlimaneAssist: Mohamed Touré
9'José CórdobaFoul
20'Jack StaceyFoul
34'Kenny McLeanFoul
43'Ben ChriseneAssist: Andre Brooks
46'Gethin Jones INMarvin Ekpiteta out
55'Nathaniel Méndez-Laing(Penalty missed)
56'Ryan Wintle
56'Liam Kelly INDaniel Barlaser out
57'Nathaniel Méndez-Laing INSamuel Silvera out
59'Andre Brooks
60'Andre Brooks
61'Mohamed Touré INMathias Kvistgaarden out
61'Anis Ben Slimane INJacob Wright out
62'Andre Brooks INParis Maghoma out
69'Callum Paterson INAaron Collins out
70'Oscar Schwartau INMatěj Jurásek out
77'Mathias Kvistgaarden INSam Field out
77'Ben Wiles INJay Matete out
84'Charlie GoodeFoul

Lineups

Norwich
Coach: Philippe Clement
Milton Keynes Dons
Coach: Paul Warne

Norwich Starting XI

1Vladan Kovačević7.3
3Jack Stacey20'6.5
6Harry Darling7.9
33José Córdoba9'7.2
14Ben Chrisene43'7.0
7Pelle Mattsson6.3
23Kenny McLeanC34'8.2
11Andre Brooks59'60'62'replaced by Paris Maghoma7.6
20Anis Ben Slimane7'61'replaced by Jacob Wright7.7
29Oscar Schwartau70'replaced by Matěj Jurásek6.9
21Mohamed Touré1'61'replaced by Mathias Kvistgaarden8.6
Avg rating7.17

Milton Keynes Dons Starting XI

1Craig McGillivray6.6
2Gethin Jones46'replaced by Marvin Ekpiteta5.9
35Curtis NelsonC6.7
5Charlie Goode84'5.0
15Cohen Bramall5.6
13Callum Paterson69'replaced by Aaron Collins6.2
24Ryan Wintle56'7.5
6Liam Kelly56'replaced by Daniel Barlaser6.5
26Ben Wiles77'replaced by Jay Matete6.3
11Nathaniel Méndez-Laing57'replaced by Samuel Silvera5.7
9Sam Nombe6.3
Avg rating6.39

Norwich Substitutes

16Jacob Wright61'for Anis Ben Slimane7.0
30Mathias Kvistgaarden61'for Mohamed Touré77'for Sam Field6.7
25Paris Maghoma62'for Andre Brooks6.7
10Matěj Jurásek70'for Oscar Schwartau6.6
26Sam Field77'replaced by Mathias Kvistgaarden6.5
32Daniel Grimshaw
43Vatan Özcan
28Bruno Alves
15Ruairi McConville

Milton Keynes Dons Substitutes

21Marvin Ekpiteta46'for Gethin Jones7.5
4Daniel Barlaser56'for Liam Kelly6.5
17Samuel Silvera57'for Nathaniel Méndez-Laing6.6
10Aaron Collins69'for Callum Paterson6.7
28Jay Matete77'for Ben Wiles6.6
51Sebastian Stacey
32Jack Sanders
7Dan Crowley
47Simone Troso

Match Stats

NorwichMilton Keynes Dons
65%Ball Possession35%
7Corner Kicks3
4Yellow Cards1
25Total Shots8
7Shots on Goal5
9Shots off Goal3
18Shots Inside Box6
7Shots Outside Box2
9Blocked Shots0
11Fouls13
2Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves2
479Total Passes255
394Passes Accurate167
82%Pass Accuracy65%

Team Comparison

NorwichNorwich
Milton Keynes DonsMilton Keynes Dons
1649Elo Rating 1610
1.40Attack 1.78
1.41Defense 1.47
27%Hit Rate 66%
12.1Shots per Game 14.4
4.0Shots on Target 3.8
4.0Corners per Game 5.8
1.8Cards per Game 1.8

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

NorwichNorwich
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Milton Keynes DonsMilton Keynes Dons
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.3 vs 0.4 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Recent Form

NorwichNorwich
4W4D2L
04/08/2026
NorwichCambridge United
00
D
01/08/2026
NorwichOsasuna
12
L
22/07/2026
AFC WimbledonNorwich
00
D
17/07/2026
FC ST. GallenNorwich
03
W
11/07/2026
NorwichColchester
00
D
04/07/2026
NorwichKing's Lynn Town
20
W
02/05/2026
Hull CityNorwich
21
L
25/04/2026
NorwichSwansea
11
D
21/04/2026
NorwichDerby
21
W
18/04/2026
Bristol CityNorwich
24
W
Milton Keynes DonsMilton Keynes Dons
5W2D3L
01/08/2026
CheltenhamMilton Keynes Dons
02
W
28/07/2026
BarnetMilton Keynes Dons
00
D
25/07/2026
WealdstoneMilton Keynes Dons
20
L
22/07/2026
TottenhamMilton Keynes Dons
10
L
17/07/2026
Istra 1961Milton Keynes Dons
21
L
10/07/2026
MaidenheadMilton Keynes Dons
14
W
02/05/2026
Fleetwood TownMilton Keynes Dons
11
D
25/04/2026
Milton Keynes DonsTranmere
30
W
18/04/2026
CreweMilton Keynes Dons
13
W
11/04/2026
Milton Keynes DonsBromley
21
W

Referee Profile

Elliott Swallow98 matches

4.46Cards per match
4.38Yellow cards per match
0.08Red cards per match
26.6Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Elliott Swallow4.46
Other referees3.89

4.46 cards a match, 0.57 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.89).

Cards come from 13 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 128
Round of 64
Round of 32
Round of 16
Cambridge United0
Millwall1
Nottingham Forest0
Leeds2
Bradford04
Burnley02
On penalties
Chelsea2
Luton0
Fulham3
AFC Wimbledon0
Sunderland
Seeded
Crystal Palace
Seeded
Bournemouth
Seeded
Arsenal
Seeded
Liverpool
Seeded
Aston Villa
Seeded
Manchester United
Seeded
Brighton
Seeded
Manchester City
Seeded

About the Norwich vs Milton Keynes Dons forecast

As a knockout tie in the League Cup, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About League Cup

More League Cup fixtures and forecasts are on the League Cup Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Norwich and Milton Keynes Dons have little recent head-to-head history for the model to draw on. Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.