Derby vs Lincoln Prediction

Derby
1-2
Finished
HT 1-2
Lincoln
Pride Park Stadium, Derby·Josh Smith, England 08/08/2026
DerbyDerby
1-2
Finished
LincolnLincoln

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
82%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.20
SignalSTRONGModel51%SurpriseHighGap-1.0%
Derby Rest
3 days
Lincoln Rest
6 days

Derby vs Lincoln: the result in context

Lincoln beat Derby 2-1 in the League Cup on 8 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their history points to a close game: 4 previous meetings produced 2.0 goals a game. Derby tend to win more corners, 5.1 a game to 2.2 for Lincoln.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
24%1.97
X
22%3.67
2
54%3.40
Double Chance
1X
46%1.30
X2
77%1.77
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%1.60
No
54%2.20
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.87 + 1.92 = 3.79
Over 1.5
82%1.20
Over 2.5
52%1.69
Over 3.5
32%2.64
Under 1.5
18%4.00
Under 2.5
48%2.10
Under 3.5
68%1.43
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

3'Ben HouseAssist: Varfolomieiev Ivan
23'Dom JefferiesAssist: Freddie Draper
32'Adam ReachFoul
35'Lewis TravisFoul
45+1'Sammie Szmodics
46'Matt Clarke INDion Sanderson out
48'Ben HouseFoul
63'Charlie Taylor INCraig Forsyth out
63'Corey Blackett-Taylor INMax Johnston out
63'Oscar Fraulo INFilip Bilbija out
67'Dom Jefferies INRyley Towler out
79'Ben House INMason Melia out
79'Robert Street INReeco Hackett-Fairchild out
79'Freddie Draper INIsaac Olaofe out
80'Sammie Szmodics INLars-Jørgen Salvesen out
88'Adam Reach INCallum Elder out

Lineups

Derby
Coach: John Eustace
Lincoln
4-4-2

Derby Starting XI

1Jacob Widell Zetterström7.3
23Joe Ward5.9
6Sondre Langås6.2
5Matt Clarke46'replaced by Dion Sanderson6.3
18Charlie Taylor63'replaced by Craig Forsyth6.9
29Oscar Fraulo63'replaced by Filip Bilbija6.3
27Lewis TravisC35'7.3
11Sammie Szmodics45+1'80'replaced by Lars-Jørgen Salvesen7.7
8Bobby Clark6.5
33Corey Blackett-Taylor63'replaced by Max Johnston6.3
9Carlton Morris6.6
Avg rating6.69

Lincoln Starting XI

1George Wickens6.6
2Tendayi DarikwaC6.9
22Thomas Hamer6.3
25Deji Elerewe7.0
3Adam Reach32'88'replaced by Callum Elder6.7
16Dom Jefferies23'67'replaced by Ryley Towler7.5
14Conor McGrandles7.0
24Varfolomieiev Ivan7.3
18Ben House3'48'79'replaced by Mason Melia8.3
17Robert Street79'replaced by Reeco Hackett-Fairchild6.2
34Freddie Draper79'replaced by Isaac Olaofe6.7
Avg rating6.85

Derby Substitutes

28Dion Sanderson46'for Matt Clarke6.9
3Craig Forsyth63'for Charlie Taylor6.9
22Max Johnston63'for Corey Blackett-Taylor6.9
13Filip Bilbija63'for Oscar Fraulo6.9
15Lars-Jørgen Salvesen80'for Sammie Szmodics6.2
31Josh Vickers
40Cruz Allen
41Charlie Smith
37Owen Eames

Lincoln Substitutes

6Ryley Towler67'for Dom Jefferies6.9
7Reeco Hackett-Fairchild79'for Robert Street6.6
19Isaac Olaofe79'for Freddie Draper6.3
10Mason Melia79'for Ben House6.5
20Callum Elder88'for Adam Reach
46Joe Gauci
21James Pardington
4Andrei CoubiÈ™
23Joshua Honohan

Match Stats

DerbyLincoln
71%Ball Possession29%
3Corner Kicks6
1Yellow Cards2
8Total Shots14
4Shots on Goal4
1Shots off Goal6
3Shots Inside Box10
5Shots Outside Box4
3Blocked Shots4
12Fouls12
1Offsides3
2Goalkeeper Saves2
540Total Passes218
461Passes Accurate145
85%Pass Accuracy67%

Team Comparison

DerbyDerby
LincolnLincoln
1563Elo Rating 1694
0.77Attack 1.68
1.42Defense 0.32
0%Hit Rate 27%
13.8Shots per Game 12.5
4.4Shots on Target 3.6
5.1Corners per Game 2.2
2.6Cards per Game 2.6

AI Insights

âš½High Goal Expectancy3.79 goals
📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

DerbyDerby
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
LincolnLincoln
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 4 meetings, all competitions

DerbyDerby1Wins · 25%
Draws250%
LincolnLincoln1Wins · 25%
2.0Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored2 of 4
25%3+ goals1 of 4

Previous meetings

League One20/01/2024
LincolnDerby
00
League One21/12/2023
DerbyLincoln
31
League One14/02/2023
DerbyLincoln
11
League One13/09/2022
LincolnDerby
20

Recent Form

DerbyDerby
4W1D5L
04/08/2026
RotherhamDerby
11
D
01/08/2026
Burton AlbionDerby
10
L
31/07/2026
Mansfield TownDerby
13
W
28/07/2026
DerbyValencia
12
L
24/07/2026
SC FreiburgDerby
31
L
17/07/2026
Alfreton TownDerby
02
W
02/05/2026
DerbySheffield Utd
12
L
25/04/2026
QPRDerby
23
W
21/04/2026
NorwichDerby
21
L
18/04/2026
DerbyOxford United
10
W
LincolnLincoln
5W1D4L
01/08/2026
BarnsleyLincoln
30
L
01/08/2026
DoncasterLincoln
01
W
28/07/2026
GrimsbyLincoln
51
L
17/07/2026
LincolnLeyton Orient
02
L
11/07/2026
Boston UnitedLincoln
01
W
10/07/2026
Lincoln UnitedLincoln
21
L
02/05/2026
Port ValeLincoln
02
W
25/04/2026
LincolnWycombe
43
W
21/04/2026
DoncasterLincoln
02
W
18/04/2026
StevenageLincoln
22
D

Referee Profile

Josh Smith203 matches

3.90Cards per match
3.76Yellow cards per match
0.14Red cards per match
22.1Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Josh Smith3.90
Other referees3.86

3.90 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.86).

Cards come from 198 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 128
Round of 64
Round of 32
Round of 16
Cambridge United0
Millwall1
Nottingham Forest0
Leeds2
Bradford04
Burnley02
On penalties
Chelsea2
Luton0
Fulham3
AFC Wimbledon0
Sunderland
Seeded
Crystal Palace
Seeded
Bournemouth
Seeded
Arsenal
Seeded
Liverpool
Seeded
Aston Villa
Seeded
Manchester United
Seeded
Brighton
Seeded
Manchester City
Seeded

About the Derby vs Lincoln forecast

As a knockout tie in the League Cup, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About League Cup

More League Cup fixtures and forecasts are on the League Cup Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.