Sunderland vs Brentford Prediction

Sunderland
3-2
Finished
HT 3-1
Brentford
Stadium of Light, Sunderland·Gavin Ward 28/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
79%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.22
SignalHIGHModel53%SurpriseHighGap-3.3%
Sunderland Rest
3 days
Brentford Rest
3 days

Sunderland vs Brentford: result, form and history

Sunderland beat Brentford 3-2 in the League Cup on 28 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 3 previous meetings averaged 2.7 goals, with both teams scoring in 2 of them. Sunderland tend to win more corners, 5.9 a game to 3.3 for Brentford.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
24%3.95
X
27%3.73
2
49%1.86
Double Chance
1X
51%1.89
X2
76%1.25
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%1.65
No
45%2.15
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.12 + 1.31 = 2.43
Over 1.5
78%1.22
Over 2.5
53%1.75
Over 3.5
34%2.80
Under 1.5
22%4.00
Under 2.5
47%2.06
Under 3.5
66%1.40
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

26'Chemsdine Talbi
29'Timur TutierovAssist: Djiamgone Jocelin Ta Bi
39'Malick FofanaAssist: Djiamgone Jocelin Ta Bi
42'Callum WilsonAssist: Vitaly Janelt
45'Habib Diarra INChris Rigg out
59'Mamadou Sangare INMathias Jensen out
59'Michael Kayode INAaron Hickey out
59'Callum Wilson INDango Ouattara out
60'Omar Alderete INLuke O'Nien out
60'Timur Tutierov INThomas Meunier out
71'Nathan Collins INKristoffer Ajer out
71'Jaidon Anthony INKevin Schade out
74'Kevin SchadeFoul
80'Chemsdine Talbi INTom Proctor out
83'Vitaly JaneltFoul
85'Jannik SchusterFoul
89'Chris RiggFoul
90+4'Igor ThiagoAssist: Mathias Jensen
90+4'Djiamgone Jocelin Ta Bi INF. Scott out

Lineups

Sunderland
4-2-3-1Coach: R. Le Bris
Brentford
4-2-3-1Coach: Keith Andrews
Avg rating6.61
Avg rating6.39
M. Ellborg6.531M. Ellborg
A. Browne6.28A. Browne
K. Danso6.34K. Danso
O. Alderete6.615O. Alderete
D. Methalie5.96D. Methalie
C. Talbi7.67C. Talbi
Jules Ahoka6.129J. Ahoka
J. Bi8.337J. Bi
H. Diarra6.419H. Diarra
M. Fofana7.639M. Fofana
Timur Tuterov7.757T. Tuterov
H. Valdimarsson5.712H. Valdimarsson
M. Kayode5.533M. Kayode
Jannik Schuster5.944J. Schuster
N. Collins6.422N. Collins
E. Diouf6.525E. Diouf
M. Sangaré6.718M. Sangaré
V. Janelt7.727V. Janelt
J. Anthony6.119J. Anthony
M. Damsgaard6.624M. Damsgaard
C. Wilson7.513C. Wilson
Thiago7.49Thiago

Sunderland Substitutes

12T. Meunier60'for Timur Tutierov6.1
21S. Moore
13L. O'Nien60'for Omar Alderete6.1
77T. Proctor80'for Chemsdine Talbi5.9
11C. Rigg45'for Habib Diarra89'6.0
47T. Ogunsuyi
40J. Whittaker
49F. Scott90+4'for Djiamgone Jocelin Ta Bi
48Jenson Jones

Brentford Substitutes

8M. Jensen59'for Mamadou Sangare6.3
1C. Kelleher
23K. Lewis-Potter
11D. Ouattara59'for Callum Wilson6.4
7K. Schade71'for Jaidon Anthony74'5.8
4S. van den Berg
2A. Hickey59'for Michael Kayode5.8
39Gustavo Gomes
20K. Ajer71'for Nathan Collins6.3

Match Stats

SunderlandBrentford
33%Ball Possession67%
0Corner Kicks5
1Yellow Cards3
7Total Shots16
4Shots on Goal7
2Shots off Goal6
7Shots Inside Box13
0Shots Outside Box3
1Blocked Shots3
8Fouls18
0Offsides3
4Goalkeeper Saves0
303Total Passes589
197Passes Accurate491
18Free Kicks8

Team Comparison

SunderlandSunderland
BrentfordBrentford
1761Elo Rating 1870
1.08Attack 1.93
1.04Defense 1.56
19%Hit Rate 36%
16.1Shots per Game 13.5
5.7Shots on Target 4.2
5.9Corners per Game 3.3
1.7Cards per Game 2.8

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend67% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming
⚠️Home Rotation Risk90%
⚠️Away Rotation Risk90%

Game State Tendencies

SunderlandSunderland
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 33% of the time
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
BrentfordBrentford
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 3 meetings, all competitions

SunderlandSunderland1Wins · 34%
Draws133%
BrentfordBrentford1Wins · 33%
2.7Avg Goals
67%Both teams scored2 of 3
67%3+ goals2 of 3

Previous meetings

Premier League05/09/2026
BrentfordSunderland
11
Premier League07/01/2026
BrentfordSunderland
30
Premier League30/08/2025
SunderlandBrentford
21

Referee Profile

Gavin Ward201 matches

3.78Cards per match
3.66Yellow cards per match
0.12Red cards per match
21.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Gavin Ward3.78
Other referees3.80

3.78 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.80).

Cards come from 196 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 128
Round of 64
Round of 32
Round of 16
Cambridge United0
Millwall1
Nottingham Forest0
Leeds2
Bradford04
Burnley02
On penalties
Chelsea2
Luton0
Fulham3
AFC Wimbledon0
Sunderland
Seeded
Crystal Palace
Seeded
Bournemouth
Seeded
Arsenal
Seeded
Liverpool
Seeded
Aston Villa
Seeded
Manchester United
Seeded
Brighton
Seeded
Manchester City
Seeded

About the Sunderland vs Brentford forecast

As a knockout tie in the League Cup, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About League Cup

More League Cup fixtures and forecasts are on the League Cup Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.