Brentford vs Chelsea Prediction

Premier LeagueEngland England · Regular Season - 5
Brentford
3-0
Finished
HT 0-0
Chelsea
Gtech Community Stadium, London·Andrew Madley 18/09/2026
BrentfordBrentford
3-0
Finished
ChelseaChelsea

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
70%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.52
SignalSOLIDModel46%SurpriseMediumGap+4.4%
Value Analysis
70%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Under 2.5
1.58
SignalGOODModel70%SurpriseMediumGap+7.2%
Brentford Rest
3 days
Chelsea Rest
6 days

Brentford vs Chelsea: the result in context

Brentford beat Chelsea 3-0 in the Premier League on 18 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.4 goals, with both teams scoring in 4 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
49%2.60
X
23%3.72
2
28%2.55
Double Chance
1X
72%1.52
X2
51%1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
68%1.40
No
32%2.77
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.9 + 1.35 = 3.25
Over 1.5
83%1.13
Over 2.5
62%1.48
Over 3.5
41%2.21
Under 1.5
17%5.45
Under 2.5
38%2.62
Under 3.5
59%1.68
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.2 + 4.4 = 10.6
Over 8.5
80%1.33
Over 9.5
69%1.66
Over 10.5
50%2.06
Under 8.5
20%2.83
Under 9.5
31%2.14
Under 10.5
50%1.74
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.6 + 1.9 = 3.6
Over 3.5
48%1.54
Over 4.5
29%2.17
Under 3.5
52%2.42
Under 4.5
71%1.66

Match Events

61'Jaidon AnthonyAssist: Jannik Schuster
69'Michael Kayode INAaron Hickey out
69'Yehor Yarmoliuk INMamadou Sangare out
71'Danny Welbeck INGeovany Quenda out
71'Wesley Fofana INJosh Acheampong out
81'Jaidon Anthony INDango Ouattara out
81'Keane Lewis-Potter INEl Hadji Malick Diouf out
83'Igor Thiago
84'Igor Thiago
85'Mamadou SangareFoul
87'Valentin Barco INMahdi Nicoll-Jazuli out
87'Pedro Neto INEstêvão Willian Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves out
87'Mikkel Damsgaard INFabio Carvalho out
90+4'Fabio Carvalho

Lineups

Brentford
4-2-3-1Coach: Keith Andrews
Chelsea
3-4-2-1Coach: Xabi Alonso
Avg rating7.05
Avg rating6.32
C. Kelleher7.41C. Kelleher
M. Kayode6.433M. Kayode
Jannik Schuster7.844J. Schuster
K. Ajer7.320K. Ajer
K. Lewis-Potter6.623K. Lewis-Potter
Y. Yarmolyuk6.86Y. Yarmolyuk
V. Janelt6.927V. Janelt
J. Anthony8.119J. Anthony
M. Damsgaard6.924M. Damsgaard
K. Schade6.47K. Schade
Thiago7.69Thiago
E. Martínez5.61E. Martínez
W. Fofana6.83W. Fofana
M. Lacroix6.55M. Lacroix
L. Colwill6.56L. Colwill
Pedro Neto6.17P. Neto
J. Henderson6.714J. Henderson
V. Barco6.44V. Barco
Pep Chavarría6.629P. Chavarría
C. Palmer6.210C. Palmer
M. Rogers6.817M. Rogers
D. Welbeck6.418D. Welbeck

Brentford Substitutes

31E. Balcombe
14Fábio Carvalho87'for Mikkel Damsgaard90+4'7.6
25E. Diouf81'for Keane Lewis-Potter7.0
48B. Fredrick
3R. Henry
2A. Hickey69'for Michael Kayode7.1
11D. Ouattara81'for Jaidon Anthony6.5
18M. Sangaré69'for Yehor Yarmoliuk85'6.7
13C. Wilson

Chelsea Substitutes

23Geovany Tcherno Quenda71'for Danny Welbeck5.9
39M. Penders
32M. Nicoll-Jazuli87'for Valentin Barco6.0
45R. Lavia
21J. Hato
27M. Gusto
11J. Bynoe-Gittens
41Estêvão87'for Pedro Neto6.3
34Joshua Kofi Acheampong71'for Wesley Fofana6.1

Match Stats

BrentfordChelsea
40%Ball Possession60%
4Corner Kicks12
2Yellow Cards0
13Total Shots12
6Shots on Goal2
3Shots off Goal3
9Shots Inside Box8
4Shots Outside Box4
4Blocked Shots7
10Fouls7
2Offsides2
2Goalkeeper Saves3
349Total Passes514
276Passes Accurate446
7Free Kicks10

Team Comparison

BrentfordBrentford
ChelseaChelsea
1850Elo Rating 1847
1.72Attack 1.49
1.24Defense 1.68
14%Hit Rate 36%
13.6Shots per Game 11.4
5.2Shots on Target 4.6
4.2Corners per Game 5.5
2.9Cards per Game 2.0

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy3.25 goals
📈BTTS Trend40% in H2H
💎Value Analysis Identified

Game State Tendencies

BrentfordBrentford
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 50% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0.6 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
ChelseaChelsea
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.9 vs 0.6 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

BrentfordBrentford3Wins · 30%
Draws440%
ChelseaChelsea3Wins · 30%
2.4Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10

Previous meetings

Premier League17/01/2026
ChelseaBrentford
20
Premier League13/09/2025
BrentfordChelsea
22
Premier League06/04/2025
BrentfordChelsea
00
Premier League15/12/2024
ChelseaBrentford
21
Premier League02/03/2024
BrentfordChelsea
22
Premier League28/10/2023
ChelseaBrentford
02
Premier League26/04/2023
ChelseaBrentford
02
Premier League19/10/2022
BrentfordChelsea
00
Premier League02/04/2022
ChelseaBrentford
14
League Cup22/12/2021
BrentfordChelsea
02

Recent Form

BrentfordBrentford
5W5D0L
15/09/2026
ReadingBrentford
12
W
12/09/2026
BournemouthBrentford
22
D05/09/2026
BrentfordSunderland
11
D30/08/2026
LeedsBrentford
11
D25/08/2026
BirminghamBrentford
16
W22/08/2026
BrentfordTottenham
30
W
15/08/2026
BrentfordEintracht Frankfurt
70
W
08/08/2026
RennesBrentford
24
W
24/05/2026
LiverpoolBrentford
11
D
17/05/2026
BrentfordCrystal Palace
22
D
ChelseaChelsea
6W2D2L
12/09/2026
ChelseaHull City
22
D
09/09/2026
ChelseaLeeds
63
W06/09/2026
ArsenalChelsea
21
L30/08/2026
ChelseaBrighton
43
W
27/08/2026
ChelseaLuton
20
W
24/08/2026
FulhamChelsea
23
W
15/08/2026
ChelseaReal Sociedad
31
W
09/08/2026
Johor Darul Takzim FCChelsea
33
D
08/08/2026
ChelseaAC Milan
30
W
05/08/2026
ChelseaJuventus
01
L

League Table

Premier League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1ArsenalArsenal980114:5+924WWWWL
2Manchester CityManchester City970220:10+1021LLWWW
3BrightonBrighton961224:7+1719WLWWW
4ChelseaChelsea951319:15+416WLWWL
5LiverpoolLiverpool943211:9+215LWWLW
6BrentfordBrentford935116:9+714WDLDW
7BournemouthBournemouth933314:13+112WWWLL
8TottenhamTottenham933310:10012WWWDL
9Aston VillaAston Villa933310:13-312DWWDW
10Hull CityHull City925211:10+111DDLDL
11LeedsLeeds92529:8+111LDDLD
12NewcastleNewcastle832312:14-211WLLWL
13IpswichIpswich932414:18-411DDLWL
14EvertonEverton82428:9-110LLDWD
15FulhamFulham92349:11-29DWWLD
16CoventryCoventry93069:16-79WLLWW
17Manchester UnitedManchester United914410:15-57LLDDD
18Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace92169:21-127LLLWD
19Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest91356:12-66LDLLL
20SunderlandSunderland91267:17-105LDLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1ArsenalArsenal914:524
2Manchester CityManchester City920:1021
3BrightonBrighton924:719
4ChelseaChelsea919:1516
5LiverpoolLiverpool911:915
6BrentfordBrentford916:914
7BournemouthBournemouth914:1312
8TottenhamTottenham910:1012
9Aston VillaAston Villa910:1312
10Hull CityHull City911:1011
11LeedsLeeds99:811
12NewcastleNewcastle812:1411
13IpswichIpswich914:1811
14EvertonEverton88:910
15FulhamFulham99:119
16CoventryCoventry99:169
17Manchester UnitedManchester United910:157
18Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace99:217
19Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest96:126
20SunderlandSunderland97:175
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

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About the Brentford vs Chelsea forecast

The forecasts for this Premier League match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Brentford and Chelsea in the Premier League table

Chelsea and Brentford are close in the Premier League table, 4th and 6th, with 2 points between them. League goal record so far: Brentford 16-9, Chelsea 19-15. The full standings are on the Premier League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.