AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County Prediction

AFC Wimbledon
1-1
After Penalties
HT 0-0AET 0-0PEN 5-4
Newport County
The Cherry Red Records Stadium, London·P. Howard 08/08/2026
AFC WimbledonAFC Wimbledon
1-1
After Penalties
Newport CountyNewport County

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Partial
Match Importance
4.2 / 10
AI Best Pick
82%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 1.5 Goals
1.22
SignalSTRONGModel45%SurpriseHighGap+0.3%
AFC Wimbledon Rest
7 days
Newport County Rest
3 days

AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County: the result in context

AFC Wimbledon beat Newport County on penalties (5-4) after a 1-1 draw in the League Cup on 8 Aug 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 6 previous meetings averaged 2.8 goals, with both teams scoring in 5 of them. AFC Wimbledon tend to win more corners, 6.9 a game to 4.9 for Newport County.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
34%1.66
X
25%3.90
2
41%4.62
Double Chance
1X
59%1.17
X2
66%2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%1.72
No
54%2.05
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.41 + 1.28 = 2.69
Over 1.5
82%1.22
Over 2.5
47%1.73
Over 3.5
30%2.75
Under 1.5
18%3.90
Under 2.5
53%2.05
Under 3.5
70%1.41
Corners

Corner forecasts not available for this match

Cards

Card forecasts not available for this match

Match Events

16'Dan SweeneyFoul
64'Myles HippolyteFoul
66'Dan Sweeney INSteven Sessegnon out
66'Aron Sasu INJayden Stockley out
66'Zack Nelson INCallum Maycock out
68'Shaquille Gwengwe(Penalty missed)
71'Yahya BambaAssist: Shaquille Gwengwe
73'Shaquille Gwengwe INMoses Alexander-Walker out
73'Christian Doidge INGerard Garner out
76'Yahya Bamba INDan Sassi out
78'Moses Alexander-Walker
82'Alistair Smith INAntwoine Hackford out
86'Thomas Davies INAlfie Merritt out
86'Cameron Evans INMatt Smith out
90+7'Callum MaycockAssist: Isaac Ogundere

Lineups

AFC Wimbledon
Coach: Johnnie Jackson
Newport County
4-2-3-1

AFC Wimbledon Starting XI

1Nathan Bishop7.6
33Isaac Ogundere6.3
26Dan Sweeney16'66'replaced by Steven Sessegnon6.9
6Ryan JohnsonC6.9
7James Tilley7.7
10Zack Nelson66'replaced by Callum Maycock6.7
12Alistair Smith82'replaced by Antwoine Hackford6.6
21Myles Hippolyte64'6.5
3Steve Seddon7.2
11Marcus Browne6.5
29Aron Sasu66'replaced by Jayden Stockley6.2
Avg rating6.81

Newport County Starting XI

1Jordan Wright6.6
22Cameron Norman6.5
5Lee Jenkins7.0
4Kyle CameronC6.6
3Thomas Davies86'replaced by Alfie Merritt6.6
2Cameron Evans86'replaced by Matt Smith7.3
6Ciaran Brennan6.7
20Yahya Bamba71'76'replaced by Dan Sassi7.3
10Harrison Biggins6.5
9Shaquille Gwengwe73'replaced by Moses Alexander-Walker5.9
27Christian Doidge73'replaced by Gerard Garner6.6
Avg rating6.70

AFC Wimbledon Substitutes

2Steven Sessegnon66'for Dan Sweeney6.2
8Callum Maycock66'for Zack Nelson90+7'7.5
9Jayden Stockley66'for Aron Sasu6.7
16Antwoine Hackford82'for Alistair Smith6.6
20Joe McDonnell
32Kai Jennings
5Ollie Harrison
18Delano McCoy-Splatt
4Jake Reeves

Newport County Substitutes

19Gerard Garner73'for Christian Doidge7.0
14Moses Alexander-Walker73'for Shaquille Gwengwe78'6.7
34Dan Sassi76'for Yahya Bamba6.9
17Alfie Merritt86'for Thomas Davies6.5
8Matt Smith86'for Cameron Evans6.5
33Shaun MacDonald
29Keenan Pattern
36Harrison Pugh
40Cole Jarvis

Match Stats

AFC WimbledonNewport County
61%Ball Possession39%
7Corner Kicks5
2Yellow Cards1
15Total Shots14
5Shots on Goal4
8Shots off Goal4
11Shots Inside Box7
4Shots Outside Box7
2Blocked Shots6
11Fouls15
2Offsides0
3Goalkeeper Saves3
365Total Passes226
262Passes Accurate139
72%Pass Accuracy62%

Team Comparison

AFC WimbledonAFC Wimbledon
Newport CountyNewport County
1462Elo Rating 1516
0.64Attack 1.77
0.54Defense 1.95
0%Hit Rate 41%
12.9Shots per Game 15.8
3.2Shots on Target 3.6
6.9Corners per Game 4.9
1.1Cards per Game 1.9

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend83% in H2H
📉Home Underperforming
📊Away Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

AFC WimbledonAFC Wimbledon
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Newport CountyNewport County
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 67% of the time
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.3 vs 0.5 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break

Head to Head

Last 6 meetings, all competitions

AFC WimbledonAFC Wimbledon1Wins · 17%
Draws466%
Newport CountyNewport County1Wins · 17%
2.8Avg Goals
83%Both teams scored5 of 6
50%3+ goals3 of 6

Previous meetings

League Two02/01/2025
Newport CountyAFC Wimbledon
12
League Two03/12/2024
AFC WimbledonNewport County
22
League Two16/03/2024
AFC WimbledonNewport County
02
League Two02/09/2023
Newport CountyAFC Wimbledon
22
League Two14/03/2023
Newport CountyAFC Wimbledon
11
League Two26/12/2022
AFC WimbledonNewport County
11

Recent Form

AFC WimbledonAFC Wimbledon
3W1D6L
01/08/2026
AFC WimbledonQPR
23
L
28/07/2026
WealdstoneAFC Wimbledon
10
L
25/07/2026
AFC WimbledonCharlton
20
W
22/07/2026
AFC WimbledonNorwich
00
D
18/07/2026
Sutton UtdAFC Wimbledon
12
W
02/05/2026
AFC WimbledonHuddersfield
04
L
25/04/2026
WiganAFC Wimbledon
01
W
18/04/2026
AFC WimbledonPlymouth
13
L
15/04/2026
AFC WimbledonStockport County
02
L
11/04/2026
Burton AlbionAFC Wimbledon
10
L
Newport CountyNewport County
5W2D3L
04/08/2026
Newport CountyAS Roma
14
L
01/08/2026
Yeovil TownNewport County
12
W
28/07/2026
Newport CountyReading
04
L
25/07/2026
Bath CityNewport County
22
D
21/07/2026
Bristol CityNewport County
00
D
11/07/2026
Gloucester CityNewport County
21
L
08/07/2026
Newport CityNewport County
05
W
04/07/2026
Bristol Manor FarmNewport County
03
W
02/05/2026
BarrowNewport County
12
W
25/04/2026
Newport CountyOldham
32
W

Referee Profile

P. Howard156 matches

3.34Cards per match
3.23Yellow cards per match
0.12Red cards per match
22.5Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

P. Howard3.34
Other referees3.81

3.34 cards a match, 0.47 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.81).

Cards come from 146 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

Bracket

Round of 128
Round of 64
Round of 32
Round of 16
Cambridge United0
Millwall1
Nottingham Forest0
Leeds2
Bradford04
Burnley02
On penalties
Chelsea2
Luton0
Fulham3
AFC Wimbledon0
Sunderland
Seeded
Crystal Palace
Seeded
Bournemouth
Seeded
Arsenal
Seeded
Liverpool
Seeded
Aston Villa
Seeded
Manchester United
Seeded
Brighton
Seeded
Manchester City
Seeded

About the AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County forecast

As a knockout tie in the League Cup, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

About League Cup

More League Cup fixtures and forecasts are on the League Cup Predictions page.

Key Factors for This Match

Some underlying data for this fixture is limited, which the model accounts for with a lower confidence rating.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.