Brentford vs Liverpool Prediction

Brentford
1-2
Finished
HT 1-0
Liverpool
Gtech Community Stadium, London·John Brooks 17/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
AI Best Pick
62%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.54
SignalNEUTRALModel42%SurpriseHighGap-2.6%
Value Analysis
66%Trust
Goals O/U
Over 2.5 Goals
1.54
SignalGOODModel66%SurpriseMediumGap+3.6%
Brentford Rest
7 days
Liverpool Rest
2 days

Brentford vs Liverpool: the result in context

Liverpool beat Brentford 2-1 in the Premier League on 17 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Liverpool have had the better of this fixture, winning 6 of the 10 previous meetings, which averaged 3.3 goals a game. Liverpool tend to win more corners, 7.3 a game to 3.3 for Brentford.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
38%2.38
X
26%3.69
2
36%2.80
Double Chance
1X
64%1.40
X2
62%1.57
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64%1.46
No
36%2.55
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.39 + 1.55 = 2.94
Over 1.5
81%1.15
Over 2.5
61%1.54
Over 3.5
39%2.39
Under 1.5
19%4.90
Under 2.5
39%2.38
Under 3.5
61%1.59
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.6 + 4.5 = 10.1
Over 8.5
65%1.33
Over 9.5
54%1.60
Over 10.5
43%2.02
Under 8.5
35%2.87
Under 9.5
46%2.21
Under 10.5
57%1.75
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.1 + 2.1 = 4.2
Over 3.5
60%1.52
Over 4.5
41%1.98
Under 3.5
40%2.46
Under 4.5
59%1.77

Match Events

31'Bradley BarcolaFoul
32'Dominik Szoboszlai INTreymaurice Nyoni out
41'Penalty cancelledAlexis Mac Allister
44'Keane Lewis-PotterAssist: Igor Thiago
45'Ronald Araujo INJeremie Frimpong out
45'Dango Ouattara INKevin Schade out
45'Mathias Jensen INMamadou Sangare out
45+5'Card upgrade confirmedYehor Yarmoliuk
45+8'Yehor YarmoliukViolent conduct
46'Igor ThiagoFoul
49'Jérémy JacquetFoul
52'Jeremie Frimpong INRio Ngumoha out
53'Alexis Mac AllisterDissent
60'Kevin SchadeFoul
62'Víctor MuñozAssist: Florian Wirtz
63'Vitaly JaneltDissent
70'Alexander IsakAssist: Bradley Barcola
71'Sepp van den Berg INAaron Hickey out
77'Keane Lewis-Potter INEl Hadji Malick Diouf out
77'Jaidon Anthony INMikkel Damsgaard out
79'Alexander Isak INLewis Koumas out
79'Víctor Muñoz INJoe Gomez out
90+2'Vitaly Janelt

Lineups

Brentford
4-2-3-1Coach: Keith Andrews
Liverpool
4-2-3-1Coach: Andoni Iraola
Avg rating6.39
Avg rating6.76
C. Kelleher6.21C. Kelleher
M. Kayode7.433M. Kayode
K. Ajer6.620K. Ajer
S. van den Berg6.34S. van den Berg
K. Lewis-Potter7.523K. Lewis-Potter
Y. Yarmolyuk5.46Y. Yarmolyuk
V. Janelt5.427V. Janelt
D. Ouattara6.311D. Ouattara
M. Jensen6.58M. Jensen
J. Anthony6.719J. Anthony
Thiago6.49Thiago
Alisson Becker6.61A. Becker
R. Araújo6.233R. Araújo
J. Jacquet6.35J. Jacquet
V. van Dijk7.24V. van Dijk
M. Kerkez6.06M. Kerkez
A. Mac Allister7.010A. Mac Allister
D. Szoboszlai6.18D. Szoboszlai
Víctor Muñoz7.923V. Muñoz
F. Wirtz7.57F. Wirtz
B. Barcola6.529B. Barcola
A. Isak7.89A. Isak

Brentford Substitutes

14Fábio Carvalho
13C. Wilson
24M. Damsgaard77'for Jaidon Anthony6.1
18M. Sangaré45'for Mathias Jensen6.1
7K. Schade45'for Dango Ouattara60'6.0
25E. Diouf77'for Keane Lewis-Potter6.5
22N. Collins
2A. Hickey71'for Sepp van den Berg6.9
12H. Valdimarsson

Liverpool Substitutes

67L. Koumas79'for Alexander Isak6.6
73R. Ngumoha52'replaced by Jeremie Frimpong7.0
25G. Mamardashvili
2J. Gomez79'for Víctor Muñoz6.4
30J. Frimpong45'for Ronald Araujo52'for Rio Ngumoha6.4
21K. Tsimikas
3W. Endo
42T. Nyoni32'for Dominik Szoboszlai6.8
18C. Gakpo

Match Stats

BrentfordLiverpool
40%Ball Possession60%
3Corner Kicks9
2Yellow Cards3
2Red Cards0
10Total Shots21
2Shots on Goal5
4Shots off Goal12
10Shots Inside Box10
0Shots Outside Box11
4Blocked Shots4
7Fouls13
1Offsides2
3Goalkeeper Saves1
330Total Passes503
244Passes Accurate416
13Free Kicks7

Team Comparison

BrentfordBrentford
LiverpoolLiverpool
1870Elo Rating 1938
1.93Attack 2.85
1.56Defense 0.88
36%Hit Rate 83%
13.5Shots per Game 19.7
4.2Shots on Target 6.2
3.3Corners per Game 7.3
2.8Cards per Game 1.8

AI Insights

⚽High Goal Expectancy2.94 goals
📈BTTS Trend50% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming
📊Away Overperforming
⚠️Away Rotation Risk60%

Game State Tendencies

BrentfordBrentford
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
LiverpoolLiverpool
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (1.7 vs 1.1 in first half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

BrentfordBrentford2Wins · 20%
Draws220%
LiverpoolLiverpool6Wins · 60%
3.3Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
60%3+ goals6 of 10

Previous meetings

Premier League24/05/2026
LiverpoolBrentford
11
Premier League25/10/2025
BrentfordLiverpool
32
Premier League18/01/2025
BrentfordLiverpool
02
Premier League25/08/2024
LiverpoolBrentford
20
Premier League17/02/2024
BrentfordLiverpool
14
Premier League12/11/2023
LiverpoolBrentford
30
Premier League06/05/2023
LiverpoolBrentford
10
Premier League02/01/2023
BrentfordLiverpool
31
Premier League16/01/2022
LiverpoolBrentford
30
Premier League25/09/2021
BrentfordLiverpool
33

Referee Profile

John Brooks175 matches

4.16Cards per match
4.03Yellow cards per match
0.13Red cards per match
22.7Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

John Brooks4.16
Other referees3.78

4.16 cards a match, 0.38 more than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.78).

Cards come from 173 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Premier League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Manchester CityManchester City870120:9+1121LWWWW
2ArsenalArsenal870113:5+821WWWLW
3BrightonBrighton851223:7+1616LWWWW
4LiverpoolLiverpool843111:8+315WWLWD
5ChelseaChelsea841317:15+213LWWLD
6BrentfordBrentford825114:9+511DLDWD
7LeedsLeeds82519:6+311DDLDW
8NewcastleNewcastle832312:14-211WLLWL
9Aston VillaAston Villa83239:12-311WWDWL
10Hull CityHull City82429:8+110DLDLD
11EvertonEverton82428:9-110LLDWD
12IpswichIpswich831412:16-410DLWLW
13BournemouthBournemouth823312:13-19WWLLD
14TottenhamTottenham82338:10-29WWDLD
15FulhamFulham82248:10-28WWLDD
16Manchester UnitedManchester United814310:13-37LDDDL
17Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace82159:19-107LLWDL
18Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest81346:10-46DLLLW
19CoventryCoventry82066:15-96LLWWL
20SunderlandSunderland81256:14-85DLLLL
#TeamMPGPts
1Manchester CityManchester City820:921
2ArsenalArsenal813:521
3BrightonBrighton823:716
4LiverpoolLiverpool811:815
5ChelseaChelsea817:1513
6BrentfordBrentford814:911
7LeedsLeeds89:611
8NewcastleNewcastle812:1411
9Aston VillaAston Villa89:1211
10Hull CityHull City89:810
11EvertonEverton88:910
12IpswichIpswich812:1610
13BournemouthBournemouth812:139
14TottenhamTottenham88:109
15FulhamFulham88:108
16Manchester UnitedManchester United810:137
17Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace89:197
18Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest86:106
19CoventryCoventry86:156
20SunderlandSunderland86:145
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Brentford vs Liverpool forecast

The forecasts for this Premier League match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Brentford and Liverpool in the Premier League table

Liverpool and Brentford are close in the Premier League table, 4th and 6th, with 4 points between them. League goal record so far: Brentford 14-9, Liverpool 11-8. The full standings are on the Premier League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.