Atalanta vs Bologna Prediction

Atalanta
1-0
Finished
HT 0-0
Bologna
New Balance Arena, Bergamo·Daniele Doveri, Italy 31/08/2026
AtalantaAtalanta
1-0
Finished
BolognaBologna

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
5.5 / 10
Value Analysis
72%Trust
Away Corners
Away Corners Under 4.5
1.53
SignalGOODModel52%SurpriseMediumGap+10.6%
Atalanta Rest
4 days
Bologna Rest
7 days

Atalanta vs Bologna: the result in context

Atalanta beat Bologna 1-0 in the Serie A on 31 Aug 2026. It was in line with recent form: Atalanta had won 4 of their previous five, compared with 2 for Bologna.

Their history points to a close game: 10 previous meetings produced 1.8 goals a game. Referee Daniele Doveri averages 3.68 cards a game, 0.86 fewer than other referees in the same competitions.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
50%1.92
X
26%3.60
2
24%4.10
Double Chance
1X
76%1.25
X2
50%1.90
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%1.75
No
43%2.00
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.56 + 1.03 = 2.59
Over 1.5
73%1.29
Over 2.5
49%1.91
Over 3.5
22%3.23
Under 1.5
27%3.50
Under 2.5
51%1.91
Under 3.5
78%1.33
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.6 + 3.8 = 8.3
Over 8.5
36%1.59
Over 9.5
23%2.00
Over 10.5
8%2.57
Under 8.5
64%2.19
Under 9.5
77%1.75
Under 10.5
92%1.45
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 1.9 = 3.8
Over 3.5
52%2.58
Over 4.5
30%3.85
Under 3.5
48%1.45
Under 4.5
70%1.22

Match Events

55'C. De Ketelaere INN. Zalewski out
56'G. Raspadori INE. Elmas out
60'J. Odgaard INR. Orsolini out
60'R. Piccoli INA. Dovbyk out
61'D. Tedesco
68'G. Scamacca INN. Krstovic out
68'Ederson INL. Samardzic out
72'E. Holm INN. Zortea out
72'T. Pobega INM. Amondarain out
73'N. KrstovicUnsportsmanlike conduct
78'S. Kolasinac INR. Bellanova out
80'R. Orsolini INN. Moro out
90+6'L. SamardzicAssist: N. Zalewski

Lineups

Atalanta
4-3-3Coach: Maurizio Sarri
Bologna
4-2-3-1Coach: Domenico Tedesco
Avg rating6.99
Avg rating6.70
Marco Carnesecchi8.229M. Carnesecchi
Davide Zappacosta7.077D. Zappacosta
Odilon Kossounou7.33O. Kossounou
Giorgio Scalvini7.242G. Scalvini
Sead Kolašinac6.923S. Kolašinac
Mario Pašalić6.98M. Pašalić
Gianluca Gaetano6.970G. Gaetano
ÉdersonC6.913Éderson
Charles De Ketelaere6.917C. De Ketelaere
Gianluca Scamacca6.39G. Scamacca
Giacomo Raspadori6.518G. Raspadori
Łukasz Skorupski6.21Ł. Skorupski
Emil Holm7.22E. Holm
Eivind Helland7.05E. Helland
Torbjørn Heggem7.214T. Heggem
Abdel Rahim6.723A. Rahim
Tommaso Pobega6.74T. Pobega
Lewis FergusonC7.219L. Ferguson
Federico Bernardeschi6.910F. Bernardeschi
Jens Odgaard7.021J. Odgaard
Nicolò Cambiaghi6.228N. Cambiaghi
Roberto Piccoli6.691R. Piccoli

Atalanta Substitutes

59Nicola Zalewski55'for C. De Ketelaere6.9
99Eljif Elmas56'for G. Raspadori6.7
10Lazar Samardžić68'for Ederson90+6'7.7
90Nikola Krstović68'for G. Scamacca73'6.3
16Raoul Bellanova78'for S. Kolasinac7.2
57Marco Sportiello
95Paolo Vismara
40Relja Obrić
6Ibrahim Sulemana
49Federico Cassa
47Lorenzo Bernasconi

Bologna Substitutes

7Riccardo Orsolini60'for J. Odgaard80'for N. Moro6.3
9Artem Dovbyk60'for R. Piccoli6.3
20Nadir Zortea72'for E. Holm6.3
8Mikel Amondarain72'for T. Pobega6.7
6Nikola Moro80'replaced by R. Orsolini6.7
25Massimo Pessina
72Ukko Happonen
33Juan Miranda
16Nicolò Casale
29Lorenzo De Silvestri
3Arthur Theate
41Martin Vitík
18Marco Libra

Match Stats

AtalantaBologna
42%Ball Possession58%
1Corner Kicks2
1Yellow Cards0
6Total Shots16
2Shots on Goal3
2Shots off Goal10
3Shots Inside Box10
3Shots Outside Box6
2Blocked Shots3
10Fouls13
0Offsides4
3Goalkeeper Saves1
478Total Passes683
407Passes Accurate620
85%Pass Accuracy91%

Team Comparison

AtalantaAtalanta
BolognaBologna
1785Elo Rating 1759
1.54Attack 1.32
1.13Defense 1.81
36%Hit Rate 46%
16.2Shots per Game 9.7
4.7Shots on Target 3.7
6.1Corners per Game 2.8
1.8Cards per Game 1.7

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend30% in H2H

Game State Tendencies

AtalantaAtalanta
  • Starts fast - scores more in 1st half (1.1 vs 0.5 in second half)
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
BolognaBologna
  • Tied at half-time in 60% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

AtalantaAtalanta4Wins · 40%
Draws110%
BolognaBologna5Wins · 50%
1.8Avg Goals
30%Both teams scored3 of 10
20%3+ goals2 of 10

Previous meetings

Serie A17/05/2026
AtalantaBologna
01
Serie A07/01/2026
BolognaAtalanta
02
Serie A13/04/2025
AtalantaBologna
20
Coppa Italia04/02/2025
AtalantaBologna
01
Serie A28/09/2024
BolognaAtalanta
11
Serie A03/03/2024
AtalantaBologna
12
Serie A23/12/2023
BolognaAtalanta
10
Serie A08/04/2023
AtalantaBologna
02
Serie A09/01/2023
BolognaAtalanta
12
Serie A20/03/2022
BolognaAtalanta
01

Recent Form

AtalantaAtalanta
5W3D2L
27/08/2026
Hapoel Tel AvivAtalanta
01
W
23/08/2026
AtalantaSassuolo
21
W
20/08/2026
AtalantaHapoel Tel Aviv
00
D
14/08/2026
AtalantaAthletic Club
10
W
08/08/2026
FC Schalke 04Atalanta
03
W
02/08/2026
FeyenoordAtalanta
21
L
22/05/2026
FiorentinaAtalanta
11
D
17/05/2026
AtalantaBologna
01
L
10/05/2026
AC MilanAtalanta
23
W
02/05/2026
AtalantaGenoa
00
D
BolognaBologna
4W3D3L
24/08/2026
BolognaLazio
01
L
15/08/2026
BrightonBologna
10
L
08/08/2026
BolognaPisa
11
D
01/08/2026
BolognaCambuur
31
W
25/07/2026
BolognaIraklis 1908
20
W
22/07/2026
Bologna1. FC Heidenheim
11
D
18/07/2026
BolognaArminia Bielefeld
04
L
23/05/2026
BolognaInter
33
D
17/05/2026
AtalantaBologna
01
W
11/05/2026
NapoliBologna
23
W

Referee Profile

Daniele Doveri137 matches

3.71Cards per match
3.58Yellow cards per match
0.12Red cards per match
25.8Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Daniele Doveri3.68
Other referees4.54

3.68 cards a match, 0.86 fewer than other referees in the same competitions and seasons (4.54).

Cards come from 129 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

Serie A 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1InterInter981025:10+1525WWWWD
2LazioLazio981022:7+1525WWWWW
3AS RomaAS Roma963023:8+1521WDWDD
4ComoComo962117:8+920WWWDL
5AC MilanAC Milan953118:11+718LWWDW
6FrosinoneFrosinone952222:14+817WDWLW
7NapoliNapoli942317:11+614WDLWD
8JuventusJuventus942311:10+114LWLDW
9TorinoTorino941414:14013LWWWD
10CagliariCagliari94148:13-513LLLDW
11BolognaBologna932412:12011WWLWD
12AtalantaAtalanta831414:15-110DLWLL
13GenoaGenoa93158:13-510WWLWL
14LecceLecce930610:19-99LLWLL
15SassuoloSassuolo922514:22-88LLLDL
16MonzaMonza921616:22-67LLWLW
17UdineseUdinese91269:18-95DLLLL
18ParmaParma91265:15-105DLLLW
19FiorentinaFiorentina81169:19-104LLLDW
20VeneziaVenezia91086:19-133LLWLL
#TeamMPGPts
1InterInter925:1025
2LazioLazio922:725
3AS RomaAS Roma923:821
4ComoComo917:820
5AC MilanAC Milan918:1118
6FrosinoneFrosinone922:1417
7NapoliNapoli917:1114
8JuventusJuventus911:1014
9TorinoTorino914:1413
10CagliariCagliari98:1313
11BolognaBologna912:1211
12AtalantaAtalanta814:1510
13GenoaGenoa98:1310
14LecceLecce910:199
15SassuoloSassuolo914:228
16MonzaMonza916:227
17UdineseUdinese99:185
18ParmaParma95:155
19FiorentinaFiorentina89:194
20VeneziaVenezia96:193
Champions LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation

About the Atalanta vs Bologna forecast

The forecasts for this Serie A match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Atalanta and Bologna in the Serie A table

Bologna and Atalanta are close in the Serie A table, 11th and 12th, with 1 point between them. League goal record so far: Atalanta 14-15, Bologna 12-12. The full standings are on the Serie A Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.