Atletico-MG vs Santos Prediction
World · Quarter-finals
AI Best Pick
Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.
Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
7.0 / 10
AI Best Pick
83%Trust
Double Chance
Home Win or Draw
1.18
SignalSTRONGModel41%SurpriseHighGap-2.4%
Value Analysis
60%Trust
Goals O/U
Under 2.5 Goals
1.75
SignalSOLIDModel60%SurpriseHighGap+4.7%
Atletico-MG Rest
4 days
Santos Rest
3 days
Atletico-MG vs Santos: result, form and history
Atletico-MG beat Santos on penalties (3-1) after a 4-2 draw in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana on 16 Sep 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.
Meetings between them tend to be tight, with just 2.0 goals a game across 10 matches.
Match Forecasts
Match Result
144%1.73
X42%3.64
214%5.00
Double Chance
1X86%1.18
X256%2.06
Both Teams to Score
Yes45%1.94
No55%1.78
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.31 + 0.93 = 2.24
Over 1.571%1.31
Over 2.539%2.11
Over 3.521%3.65
Under 1.529%3.15
Under 2.561%1.75
Under 3.579%1.22
Corners
Projected Corners: 4.7 + 3.6 = 8.4
Over 8.555%1.44
Over 9.542%1.80
Over 10.532%2.24
Under 8.545%2.50
Under 9.558%1.93
Under 10.568%1.54
Cards
Projected Cards: 2.3 + 2.4 = 4.7
Over 3.569%1.21
Over 4.550%1.42
Under 3.531%4.15
Under 4.550%2.70
Match Events
1'Bernard AnĂcio Caldeira DuarteAssist: Frederico Rodrigues de Paula Santos
20'Reinier Jesus CarvalhoAssist: Frederico Rodrigues de Paula Santos
28'Lyanco Evangelista Silveira Neves VojnovićOG
38'RodineiFoul
41'Reinier Jesus CarvalhoAssist: Renan Lodi
45'Gustavo Henrique INArthur Melo out
45'Luan Peres INLucas VerĂssimo out
45'Reinier Jesus Carvalho INMateo Cassierra out
45+4'Luan PeresArgument
71'Bernard AnĂcio Caldeira Duarte INIgor Gomes out
71'Maycon de Andrade Barberan INNatanael Moreira Milouski out
72'Gabriel BarbosaAssist: Arthur Melo
81'BenjamĂn Rollheiser INChristian Oliva out
81'Alan Franco INGustavo Scarpa out
81'Lyanco Evangelista Silveira Neves Vojnović INThiago Borbas out
86'Rony INJoĂŁo Ananias out
90+2'Tomás CuelloAssist: Kevin Castaño
90+5'Rodinei INIgor Vinicius out
Penalty Shootout3 - 1
1Gabriel Barbosa(Penalty missed)
1Gustavo Scarpa(Penalty)
2JoĂŁo Schmidt(Penalty missed)
2Igor Gomes(Penalty)
3Gabriel Bontempo(Penalty)
3Frederico Rodrigues de Paula Santos(Penalty missed)
4Arthur Melo(Penalty missed)
4Thiago Borbas(Penalty)
Lineups
Atletico-MGSantos
4-2-3-1Coach: CucaAvg ratingAvg rating
1G. Delfim
21A. Franco
40VitĂŁo
13Lyanco
6R. Lodi
8Maycon
15K. Castaño
28T. Cuello
7Fred
11Bernard
19Reinier
77G. BrazĂŁo
23Rodinei
15W. ArĂŁo
14L. Peres
31G. Escobar
48G. Henrique Pereira
5J. Schmidt
8G. Bontempo
32B. Rollheiser
11Rony
9G. BarbosaAtletico-MG Substitutes
9M. Cassierra45'for Reinier Jesus Carvalho
3LĂ©o Duarte
39Mamady Cisse
14Vitor Hugo
10Gustavo Scarpa81'for Alan Franco
5Alexsander
27A. Minda
2Natanael71'for Maycon de Andrade Barberan
36K. Pascini
31Robert
17Igor Gomes71'for Bernard AnĂcio Caldeira Duarte
18T. Borbas81'for Lyanco Evangelista Silveira Neves Vojnović
Santos Substitutes
17G. Caballero
27D. Fernandes
81S. Pierri
45Lima
28C. Oliva81'for BenjamĂn Rollheiser
6Arthur45'for Gustavo Henrique
34JoĂŁo Paulo
30M. Terceros
4Lucas VerĂssimo45'for Luan Peres
16Thaciano
18Igor Vinicius90+5'for Rodinei
26JoĂŁo Paulo Ananias86'for Rony
Match Stats
Atletico-MGSantos 49%Ball Possession51%
4Corner Kicks6
0Yellow Cards2
12Total Shots18
5Shots on Goal4
5Shots off Goal7
10Shots Inside Box9
2Shots Outside Box9
2Blocked Shots7
13Fouls10
2Offsides1
3Goalkeeper Saves2
478Total Passes504
396Passes Accurate421
10Free Kicks13
Team Comparison
Atletico-MGSantos1745Elo Rating 1771
1.05Attack 1.07
1.65Defense 1.96
31%Hit Rate 19%
12.4Shots per Game 16.8
4.6Shots on Target 5.9
4.6Corners per Game 5.7
1.7Cards per Game 3.4
AI Insights
📉Home Underperforming
📉Away Underperforming
⚠️Home Rotation Risk70%
⚠️Away Rotation Risk90%
Game State Tendencies
Atletico-MG- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
Santos- Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
- Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 100% of the time
- Scores more in 2nd half (1.1 vs 0 in first half)
- Concedes more in 1st half - tightens up after the break
Head to Head
Last 10 meetings, all competitions
Atletico-MG3Wins · 30%Draws330%
Santos4Wins · 40%
4Wins · 40%2.0Avg Goals
40%Both teams scored4 of 10
20%3+ goals2 of 10
Previous meetings
10/09/2026SantosAtletico-MG20
12/04/2026SantosAtletico-MG10
14/09/2025Atletico-MGSantos11
17/04/2025SantosAtletico-MG20
27/08/2023Atletico-MGSantos20
23/04/2023SantosAtletico-MG00
06/10/2022SantosAtletico-MG12
12/06/2022Atletico-MGSantos11
14/10/2021Atletico-MGSantos31
28/06/2021SantosAtletico-MG20
Recent Form
Atletico-MG5W3D2L
12/09/2026Atletico-MG
FluminenseSantosAtletico-MG
Sao PauloAtletico-MGAtletico-MG
CruzeiroAtletico-MG
VitoriaCruzeiroAtletico-MG
InternacionalAtletico-MGAtletico-MG
RB BragantinoRB BragantinoAtletico-MG
Atletico-MGFluminense31
W10/09/2026SantosAtletico-MG20
L05/09/2026Sao PauloAtletico-MG20
L02/09/2026Atletico-MGCruzeiro21
W29/08/2026Atletico-MGVitoria21
W26/08/2026CruzeiroAtletico-MG11
D22/08/2026InternacionalAtletico-MG00
D20/08/2026Atletico-MGRB Bragantino22
D16/08/2026Atletico-MG
Gremio
13/08/2026Atletico-MGGremio30
WRB BragantinoAtletico-MG01
WSantos6W3D1L
13/09/2026SantosCruzeiroSantosAtletico-MGSantos
Palmeiras
CorinthiansSantosSantos
Mirassol
MacaraSantosSantosMacara
SantosCruzeiro21
W10/09/2026SantosAtletico-MG20
W06/09/2026InternacionalSantos
03/09/2026InternacionalSantos23
WSantosPalmeiras00
D30/08/2026CorinthiansSantos01
W27/08/2026PalmeirasSantos
23/08/2026PalmeirasSantos30
LSantosMirassol11
D21/08/2026MacaraSantos00
D16/08/2026
Vasco DA GamaSantos
14/08/2026Vasco DA GamaSantos03
WSantosMacara21
WReferee Profile
5.28Cards per match
5.01Yellow cards per match
0.27Red cards per match
26.6Fouls per match
Compared with other referees
5.29 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (5.12).
Cards come from 230 matches with official statistics.
Full referee statsBracket
Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Deportivo RecoletaSao PauloAtletico-MG
Atletico TorqueMacara
Olimpia
Botafogo
River PlateLeague Table
Group B
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico-MG | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8:6 | +2 | 10 | WWDLW |
| 2 |  Cienciano | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5:7 | -2 | 8 | DLLWW |
| 3 |  Juventud | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10:7 | +3 | 7 | DDDWL |
| 4 |  Puerto Cabello | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 7 | LDWLL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico-MG | 6 | 8:6 | 10 |
| 2 | Cienciano | 6 | 5:7 | 8 |
| 3 | Juventud | 6 | 10:7 | 7 |
| 4 | Puerto Cabello | 6 | 6:9 | 7 |
Group D
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Recoleta | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6:5 | +1 | 8 | WDDDD |
| 2 | Santos | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 8:6 | +2 | 7 | WDDDD |
| 3 |  San Lorenzo | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 6:5 | +1 | 7 | LDDDW |
| 4 |  Deportivo Cuenca | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3:7 | -4 | 6 | LDDDL |
| # | Team | MP | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Recoleta | 6 | 6:5 | 8 |
| 2 | Santos | 6 | 8:6 | 7 |
| 3 | San Lorenzo | 6 | 6:5 | 7 |
| 4 | Deportivo Cuenca | 6 | 3:7 | 6 |
Promotion
Explore more predictions
This match
- Atletico-MG Predictions
- Santos Predictions
- CONMEBOL Sudamericana Predictions
- CONMEBOL Sudamericana Standings
- CONMEBOL Sudamericana Stats 2026
- CONMEBOL Sudamericana top scorers
- CONMEBOL Sudamericana Knockout Rounds
- CONMEBOL Sudamericana Winners and Finals History
- Football Tournaments: Predictions, Brackets and History
More CONMEBOL Sudamericana matches
About the Atletico-MG vs Santos forecast
As a knockout tie in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, there is more at stake than league points; the forecasts weigh that alongside team ratings, recent form and the head-to-head record.
How to Read These Forecasts
Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.
About CONMEBOL Sudamericana
More CONMEBOL Sudamericana fixtures and forecasts are on the CONMEBOL Sudamericana Predictions page.
Key Factors for This Match
This is a high-importance fixture for both sides, rated 7.0 out of 10 by our context model. This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.
All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.