Auckland vs Melbourne City Prediction

Auckland
3-1
Finished
HT 1-1
Melbourne City
Mount Smart Stadium, Auckland·Timothy Danaskos, Australia 17/10/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.2 / 10
Value Analysis
64%Trust
Away Cards
Away Cards Over 1.5
1.64
SignalSOLIDModel64%SurpriseMediumGap+3.3%
Auckland Rest
28 days
Melbourne City Rest
66 days

Auckland vs Melbourne City: result, form and history

Auckland beat Melbourne City 3-1 in the A-League on 17 Oct 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Games between these two are rarely quiet: their 5 previous meetings averaged 3.0 goals, and both sides scored in 3 of them.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
38%2.47
X
28%3.33
2
34%2.80
Double Chance
1X
66%1.40
X2
62%1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%1.75
No
46%2.00
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.55 + 1.19 = 2.74
Over 1.5
75%1.30
Over 2.5
50%1.97
Over 3.5
29%3.25
Under 1.5
25%3.34
Under 2.5
50%1.82
Under 3.5
71%1.30
Corners
Projected Corners: 5.1 + 5.1 = 10.1
Over 8.5
66%1.48
Over 9.5
55%1.82
Over 10.5
43%2.33
Under 8.5
34%2.46
Under 9.5
45%1.93
Under 10.5
57%1.54
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.9 + 2.2 = 4.1
Over 3.5
59%1.83
Over 4.5
39%2.60
Under 3.5
41%1.83
Under 4.5
61%1.45

Match Events

32'S. CosgroveUnsportsmanlike conduct
32'A. BehichUnsportsmanlike conduct
35'L. Bayliss
42'Q. MacNicolAssist: K. Rahmani
53'L. Bayliss
67'A. Nabbout INM. Caputo out
75'B. Kutleshi INM. Leckie out
75'Q. MacNicol INL. Wong out
80'L. Bayliss INV. Fitzharris out
85'L. BrookAssist: F. De Vries
88'L. Brook INI. Prins out
88'J. Brimmer IND. Normann out
88'L. RogersonDelay of game
90'S. Cosgrove INC. Elliot out

Lineups

Auckland
4-2-3-1
Melbourne City
4-2-3-1
Avg rating7.04
Avg rating6.41
Michael Woud6.91M. Woud
Hiroki SakaiC7.72H. Sakai
Luka Vicelich6.625L. Vicelich
Nando Pijnaker7.04N. Pijnaker
Francis De Vries7.715F. De Vries
Felipe Gallegos6.58F. Gallegos
Jake Brimmer6.722J. Brimmer
Lachlan Brook5.977L. Brook
Lachlan Bayliss8.610L. Bayliss
Logan Rogerson6.527L. Rogerson
Sam Cosgrove7.39S. Cosgrove
Macklin Freke5.31M. Freke
Nathaniel Atkinson6.213N. Atkinson
Liam Bonetig6.64L. Bonetig
Harrison Delbridge6.32H. Delbridge
Aziz BehichC6.216A. Behich
Besian Kutleshi6.014B. Kutleshi
Kavian Rahmani7.324K. Rahmani
Medin Memeti6.723M. Memeti
Quinn MacNicol7.019Q. MacNicol
Awer Mabil6.311A. Mabil
Andrew Nabbout6.215A. Nabbout

Auckland Substitutes

30Joseph James Knowles
17Callan Elliot90'for S. Cosgrove
23Ronan Wynne
57Van Fitzharris80'for L. Bayliss
16Daniel Normann88'for J. Brimmer
35Jonty Bidois
21Isa Prins

Melbourne City Substitutes

9Max Caputo67'for A. Nabbout6.7
40James Nieuwenhuizen
22Peter Antoniou
39Roland Ballah
7Mathew Leckie75'for B. Kutleshi6.3
41Lawrence Wong75'for Q. MacNicol6.7
77Takeshi Kanamori

Match Stats

AucklandMelbourne City
42%Ball Possession58%
3Corner Kicks6
2Yellow Cards1
11Total Shots15
4Shots on Goal5
5Shots off Goal7
7Shots Inside Box10
4Shots Outside Box5
2Blocked Shots3
13Fouls10
2Offsides3
4Goalkeeper Saves1
324Total Passes450
230Passes Accurate357
71%Pass Accuracy79%

Team Comparison

AucklandAuckland
Melbourne CityMelbourne City
1595Elo Rating 1592
1.45Attack 1.14
1.22Defense 1.51
34%Hit Rate 17%
9.2Shots per Game 15.9
2.7Shots on Target 3.9
3.2Corners per Game 4.3
2.4Cards per Game 1.4

AI Insights

📈BTTS Trend60% in H2H
📊Home Overperforming

Game State Tendencies

AucklandAuckland
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Melbourne CityMelbourne City
  • Comeback tendency: recovers from HT deficit 67% of the time
  • Scores more in 2nd half (0.7 vs 0.4 in first half)

Head to Head

Last 5 meetings, all competitions

AucklandAuckland2Wins · 40%
Draws240%
Melbourne CityMelbourne City1Wins · 20%
3.0Avg Goals
60%Both teams scored3 of 5
80%3+ goals4 of 5

Previous meetings

A-League02/05/2026
AucklandMelbourne City
7161
A-League28/02/2026
AucklandMelbourne City
30
A-League16/01/2026
Melbourne CityAuckland
21
A-League18/01/2025
AucklandMelbourne City
30
A-League15/12/2024
Melbourne CityAuckland
22

Recent Form

AucklandAuckland
3W3D4L
19/09/2026
AucklandWestern Sydney Wanderers
13
L
26/08/2026
Al-Ahli JeddahAuckland
10
L
26/07/2026
AucklandTottenham
02
L
23/05/2026
AucklandSydney
10
W
15/05/2026
Adelaide UnitedAuckland
03
W
09/05/2026
AucklandAdelaide United
11
D
02/05/2026
AucklandMelbourne City
7161
W
26/04/2026
SydneyAuckland
22
D
19/04/2026
AucklandCentral Coast Mariners
01
L
11/04/2026
AucklandMelbourne Victory
22
D
Melbourne CityMelbourne City
5W1D4L
11/08/2026
LionsMelbourne City
20
L
07/08/2026
Melbourne CityPalermo
02
L
26/07/2026
Weston BearsMelbourne City
03
W
02/05/2026
AucklandMelbourne City
7161
L
26/04/2026
Melbourne CityAdelaide United
12
L
18/04/2026
Brisbane RoarMelbourne City
23
W
12/04/2026
Melbourne CityWellington Phoenix
20
W
07/04/2026
Melbourne CityCentral Coast Mariners
21
W
04/04/2026
Melbourne CityWestern Sydney Wanderers
30
W
22/03/2026
Perth GloryMelbourne City
11
D

Referee Profile

Timothy Danaskos73 matches

4.00Cards per match
3.80Yellow cards per match
0.20Red cards per match
21.7Fouls per match

Compared with other referees

Timothy Danaskos4.00
Other referees3.93

4.00 cards a match, in line with other referees in the same competitions and seasons (3.93).

Cards come from 46 matches with official statistics.

Full referee stats

League Table

A-League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Wellington PhoenixWellington Phoenix33007:1+69WWW
2Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney Wanderers31205:2+35WWD
3MacarthurMacarthur31203:2+15LDW
4Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar21103:2+14DW
5SydneySydney31113:304LWD
6AucklandAuckland31116:7-14DLW
7Melbourne CityMelbourne City31114:5-14WDL
8Perth GloryPerth Glory31026:4+23WLL
9Melbourne VictoryMelbourne Victory30213:4-12DDL
10Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast Mariners30213:5-22DLD
11Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets30213:6-32LDD
12Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United20021:6-50LL
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About the Auckland vs Melbourne City forecast

Every forecast on this page comes from the same model inputs: team ratings, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and how these sides have fared against each other.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Auckland and Melbourne City in the A-League table

In the A-League table, Auckland (6th) and Melbourne City (7th) are level on 4 points. League goal record so far: Auckland 6-7, Melbourne City 4-5. The full standings are on the A-League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.