Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners Prediction

AAMI Park, Melbourne·Jonathan Barreiro, Australia 01/11/2026

AI Best Pick

Statistical forecasts for entertainment purposes only - not betting or financial advice.

Data Quality
Complete
Match Importance
4.2 / 10
Value Analysis
72%Trust
1X2
Home Win
1.39
SignalGOODModel72%SurpriseMediumGap+3.0%
Melbourne Victory Rest
3 days
Central Coast Mariners Rest
7 days

Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners: the result in context

Melbourne Victory and Central Coast Mariners drew 1-1 in the A-League on 1 Nov 2026. The two went into the match with similar recent form.

Their 10 previous meetings averaged 2.3 goals, with both teams scoring in 5 of them. Melbourne Victory tend to win more corners, 5.3 a game to 2.0 for Central Coast Mariners.

Match Forecasts

Match Result
1
67%1.39
X
20%5.00
2
13%7.00
Double Chance
1X
87%1.10
X2
33%2.88
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%1.69
No
44%2.05
Goals
Projected Goals: 1.7 + 1.1 = 2.80
Over 1.5
81%1.14
Over 2.5
60%1.50
Over 3.5
38%2.32
Under 1.5
19%5.25
Under 2.5
40%2.50
Under 3.5
62%1.62
Corners
Projected Corners: 6.3 + 3.6 = 9.9
Over 8.5
63%1.29
Over 9.5
52%1.52
Over 10.5
40%1.90
Under 8.5
37%3.04
Under 9.5
48%2.27
Under 10.5
60%1.81
Cards
Projected Cards: 1.5 + 2 = 3.5
Over 3.5
46%2.06
Over 4.5
27%3.17
Under 3.5
54%1.73
Under 4.5
73%1.32

Match Events

13'H. ShillingtonFoul
14'K. Jelacic INP. Ziereis out
62'L. D'Arrigo IND. Genreau out
63'O. LavaleAssist: A. Auglah
64'A. Bolton INL. Becvinovski out
69'J. ValadonAssist: C. Nduka
70'C. DonnellFoul
72'O. LavaleUnsportsmanlike conduct
72'P. ZiereisUnsportsmanlike conduct
78'B. Brandtman INA. De Lima out
78'H. Eames INJ. Mantell out
82'Clarismario INM. Ghossaini out
82'G. May INM. Grimaldi out
87'O. Lavale INP. Ortiz out

Team Comparison

Melbourne VictoryMelbourne Victory
Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast Mariners
1631Elo Rating 1490
0.92Attack 0.79
1.84Defense 1.15
17%Hit Rate 14%
13.5Shots per Game 10.5
3.2Shots on Target 3.6
5.3Corners per Game 2.0
1.0Cards per Game 2.4

AI Insights

🏠Strong Home Advantage+141 Elo
📉Away Underperforming

Game State Tendencies

Melbourne VictoryMelbourne Victory
  • Tied at half-time in 80% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late
Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast Mariners
  • Tied at half-time in 40% of matches
  • Concedes more in 2nd half - can tire late

Head to Head

Last 10 meetings, all competitions

Melbourne VictoryMelbourne Victory3Wins · 30%
Draws440%
Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast Mariners3Wins · 30%
2.3Avg Goals
50%Both teams scored5 of 10
40%3+ goals4 of 10

Previous meetings

A-League21/03/2026
Melbourne VictoryCentral Coast Mariners
41
A-League01/02/2026
Central Coast MarinersMelbourne Victory
10
A-League08/03/2025
Melbourne VictoryCentral Coast Mariners
30
A-League18/10/2024
Central Coast MarinersMelbourne Victory
00
A-League25/05/2024
Central Coast MarinersMelbourne Victory
3111
A-League25/02/2024
Melbourne VictoryCentral Coast Mariners
01
A-League13/01/2024
Central Coast MarinersMelbourne Victory
11
A-League03/12/2023
Central Coast MarinersMelbourne Victory
22
A-League19/03/2023
Melbourne VictoryCentral Coast Mariners
20
A-League31/12/2022
Central Coast MarinersMelbourne Victory
21

Recent Form

Melbourne VictoryMelbourne Victory
5W2D3L
28/10/2026
Persib BandungMelbourne Victory
20
L
24/10/2026
Melbourne VictoryMelbourne City
11
D
18/10/2026
Wellington PhoenixMelbourne Victory
21
L
14/10/2026
Melbourne VictoryFC Seoul
30
W
10/10/2026
South MelbourneMelbourne Victory
4030
L
16/09/2026
ViettelMelbourne Victory
11
D
09/09/2026
SydneyMelbourne Victory
02
W
19/08/2026
APIA Leichhardt TigersMelbourne Victory
0010
W
08/08/2026
Western Sydney WanderersMelbourne Victory
2030
W
26/07/2026
Kingborough LionsMelbourne Victory
04
W
Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast Mariners
1W3D6L
25/10/2026
Wellington PhoenixCentral Coast Mariners
20
L
17/10/2026
Central Coast MarinersNewcastle Jets
22
D
12/09/2026
Vanuatu UnitedCentral Coast Mariners
10
L
09/09/2026
Vanuatu UnitedCentral Coast Mariners
32
L
22/07/2026
Sydney UnitedCentral Coast Mariners
111101
L
25/04/2026
Newcastle JetsCentral Coast Mariners
40
L
19/04/2026
AucklandCentral Coast Mariners
01
W
10/04/2026
Central Coast MarinersBrisbane Roar
22
D
07/04/2026
Melbourne CityCentral Coast Mariners
21
L
04/04/2026
Central Coast MarinersPerth Glory
22
D

Referee Profile

Jonathan Barreiro7 matches analysed

4.01Cards per match
3.87Yellow cards per match
0.14Red cards per match
23.6Fouls per match

Strictness

Stricter than 19% of referees analysed

Model estimates, weighted toward the competition average while the sample is small.

League Table

A-League 2026
#TeamMPWDLGGDPtsForm
1Wellington PhoenixWellington Phoenix33007:1+69WWW
2Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney Wanderers31205:2+35WWD
3MacarthurMacarthur31203:2+15LDW
4Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar21103:2+14DW
5SydneySydney31113:304LWD
6AucklandAuckland31116:7-14DLW
7Melbourne CityMelbourne City31114:5-14WDL
8Melbourne VictoryMelbourne Victory30213:4-12DL
9Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast Mariners30213:5-22LD
10Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets30213:6-32LDD
11Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United10011:2-10L
12Perth GloryPerth Glory20022:4-20LL
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About the Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners forecast

The forecasts for this A-League match are built from team Elo ratings, recent form, scoring data and the head-to-head record, and are updated as new data arrives before kickoff.

How to Read These Forecasts

Each percentage shows the model's calculated likelihood for that outcome. Above 65% indicates strong statistical confidence; 45-65% reflects a competitive, open match; below 45% suggests the outcome is statistically less likely. All figures are for informational and entertainment purposes only.

Melbourne Victory and Central Coast Mariners in the A-League table

In the A-League table, Melbourne Victory (8th) and Central Coast Mariners (9th) are level on 2 points. League goal record so far: Melbourne Victory 3-4, Central Coast Mariners 3-5. The full standings are on the A-League Table 2026 page.

Key Factors for This Match

This forecast is based on a complete recent-form dataset for both teams.

All forecasts are generated by statistical and machine learning models for informational and entertainment purposes only. They are not guaranteed and do not constitute financial or betting advice.